Columbia International Affairs Online: Policy Briefs

CIAO DATE: 07/2012

A rocky road towards Europe: The prospects for the EU's Eastern Partnership Association Agreements

Kristi Raik

June 2012

Finnish Institute for International Affairs

Abstract

The EU has a strategic goal to build political association and economic integration with the six countries included in its Eastern Partnership policy. To reach this goal, it has invented a new model of association agreement that includes deep and comprehensive free trade. At best, three out of six Eastern partners are likely to sign the agreements within the next couple of years. The low level of democracy and the rule of law in the neighbourhood may eventually block the new agreements with most partners or, if the EU loosens the political criteria, undermine the credibility of the Union. The deadlock of the EU–Ukraine agreement because of ‘selective justice’ sets a strong precedent for the other neighbours and tests the leverage of the Eastern Partnership.