CIAO DATE: 06/2008
June 2006
Finnish Institute for International Affairs
The fate of the transformation in Ukraine is important for Europe. If successful, Ukraine could positively affect the prospect of the systemic change in Russia and would serve as a linchpin of democratization and stabilization in the region stretching from Belarus to the Caspian Sea. A reformed and economically transparent Ukraine could play a signifi cant role in Europe’s strategy of diversifying its energy supplies.
Since the Orange revolution, Ukraine has demonstrated progress in its reforms. The parliamentary elections in March 2006 confi rmed that the majority of the population remained supportive of further change. All in all, the country has a fair chance of succeeding.
At the same time, the challenges are many and the transformation could still fail or stall, particularly if in Europe the reforms are viewed predominantly as a domestic Ukrainian issue, a “homework” rather than as a joint endeavour.
European engagement in Ukraine should increase further. Europe could do more to transfer its expertise in transition and adaptation, to help Ukraine address its energy concerns and to make sure that the bilateral relations go beyond cooperation and develop into an integration pattern.
Depending on the progress made, the question of Ukraine’s EU membership might have to be addressed sooner or later as it has proved to be the most powerful tool for transformation.
Resource link: Making a Difference - Why and how Europe should increase its engagement in Ukraine [PDF] - 406K