CIAO DATE: 02/2015
September 2014
Danish Institute for International Studies
The state of affairs in the Arctic has been benign for the last couple of years. All states, including Russia, have shown considerable will to solve disputes peacefully. The recent crisis in Ukraine has challenged this status quo as Western sanctions against Russia have recently begun to target Russian oil interests in the Arctic. Nevertheless, the recent set-back need not prove irreversible. The Policy Brief gives three chief recommendations for how to keep the Arctic stable: Overstating conflict over resources in the Arctic is not helpful. States should refrain from threats and create an atmosphere of trust. This will also make the region more resilient to the emerging security dilemmas. Leaders should seek domestic consensus for an Arctic strategy. This will make it harder to use the Arctic as venue for retaliation against slights suffered elsewhere, and discourage cheap domestic gains on the Arctic. Small states have a great interest in strengthening Arctic institutions and the Arctic Council.
Resource link: After Ukraine: Keeping the Arctic Stable [PDF] - 810K