CIAO DATE: 04/03

Brazil Alert: The First Presidential Debate

Miguel Diaz ^*

Hemisphere Focus: 2001-2002
August 14, 2002

The Center for Strategic and International Studies

 

Overview

• On August 4, the first of three likely debates among the main contenders for the presidency of Brazil took place. Given how tight the race has become between the PT’s Luis Inácio Lula de Silva and the PPS’ Ciro Gomes, with the two respectively registering 34 and 29 percent support in the polls, it may well be that how a candidate performs in a debate may tip the balance one way or another. Good television exposure certainly seems to be the last best hope of government candidate José Serra (PSDB), whose poll numbers have now slipped back to 12 percent.
• There was one loser and no clear winners in a complex, two-hour-plus contest, with a smaller audience than expected, a few snappy jabs but no knockouts, and some indications of vulnerabilities and strategies. The poll positions are unlikely to change much as a result of this debate. This is just the opening gambit, and those who expected other than inconclusiveness were disappointed.

 

The Format

The program was less a debate than a six-segment series of isolated expositions, each candidate responding to a question posed by a journalist or another candidate, with rights of reply and re-reply. The discontinuity and convoluted rules contributed to audience distraction and generally unanimated presentations.

 

How They Performed

Lula appeared calm throughout. He said Brazil should focus on strengthening Mercosul, called the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA) an attempt by the United States at the “annexation” of Latin America, and said-like the others-that Brazil should export more. He complained that no one wanted to discuss security seriously, and he baited Garotinho, suggesting he withdraw in favor of him. But in the main he was content with smiles and generalities. He stepped on no landmines: given his discomfort in dealing with the economic themes that predominated, this was the best he could have expected.

Serra provided a clear exposition on maintaining economic stability, stimulating exports, substituting imports, servicing Brazil’s debt, improving public education and reforming social security. He was less successful in distinguishing between his disagreement with some Cardoso administration policies and his pride in the president’s support. His interaction with Gomes was intense, and when he accused Gomes of a series of misrepresentations, he was trembling with rage. Although each inconsistency might have appeared minor, the cumulative effect of Serra’s attack was the most electric part of the debate.

For his part, Ciro Gomes focused primarily on the perceived sins of the Cardoso administration and particularly the growth of Brazil’s debt. He stressed his sense of responsibility and public service as federal congressman, mayor, governor and minister, and his “clean life.” Gomes controlled his savage temper when attacked by Serra, but his reply did not address the charges, let alone rebut them, and left the impression that he had implicitly acknowledged their validity. Gomes’s delivery is normally very rapid and fluent, and his performance here was no exception. According to media commentators-and independently confirmed by viewers I talked with-people were uncertain about what he had actually said.

Garotinho defended his performance as governor of Rio state, attacked his three opponents, and was the only candidate to call for a “change of the current economic model.” His role seemed more that of a pit bull or, as the newspapers later wrote, a spoiler. He was mauled by Gomes, dismissed by Serra, and patronized by Lula.

 

So what?

One of Serra’s primary campaign tactics, as unveiled during the debate, will be to continue to paint Gomes as a liar, and to question his competence as well as his consistency. The intent is not only to undermine perceptions that Gomes is trustworthy but also to provoke him into intemperate statements that will be exploited against him.

Serra’s opponents will likely continue to try to tie him to Cardoso administration shortcomings.

Lula’s demeanor was designed to reassure; he succeeded in this but probably converted few viewers. President Cardoso later privately praised Lula’s moderation.

The lower-than-anticipated number of viewers was certainly due in substantial measure to the cumbersome and chopped-up format that minimized drama. But it also indicates that Brazilians are only now beginning to focus on the candidates and their positions. It probably also suggests a general lack of enthusiasm, at least at this point, over the campaign.

 

What’s Next?

More debates-optimally, shorter and with simpler formats-are scheduled for early September, just before the October 6 first voting round, and for mid-October, before the inevitable second round on October 27.

More importantly, though, government-provided television time will begin August 20, and the amount for each candidate will be determined by the relative strength of the coalitions in the lower house of the Brazilian congress. Serra will receive almost half of the time, nearly twice as much as Lula and far more than Gomes.