CIAO DATE: 04/03

Brazil Alert: Crime and Elections in Brazil

Arthur Costa ^*

Hemisphere Focus: 2001-2002
July 19, 2002

The Center for Strategic and International Studies

 

Overview

• Crime rates have been rising in Brazil since the 1980s. In the past two decades violence became the main cause of death among Brazilians.
• Many states in Brazil consider the police part of the crime problem, prompting the need for reform of the police system.
• The police departments are legally under state control. Thus, in almost all Brazilian states the topic of urban violence will largely determine the elections for governor.
• This year’s presidential elections will bring the distressing theme of crime to the campaign forefront for the first time in recent history.

 

In October, Brazil will hold general elections. Voters will choose a new president, governors for Brazil’s 27 states, all federal representatives, all state representatives, and two-thirds of the Senate. With the exception of mayors and city counselors, all the public offices of the Brazilian political system will be up for contention. Along with economic issues, such as unemployment, economic growth, and degree of market openness, as in other elections in the region, the issue of law and order will dominate the presidential election campaign in the coming months. Following is a profile of the debate on the issue:

 

The Rise in Crime in Brazil

Crime rates have been rising in Brazil since the 1980s. According to data from the Ministry of Health, violence became the main cause of death among Brazilians in the past two decades. The boom in crime has multiple causes. For starters, a significant portion of the population endures precarious living conditions. Today, around a third of Brazilians live in stark poverty, making less than U.S.$1 per day. Making matters worse, social institutions (family, community associations, churches, etc.) have deteriorated, especially in poor areas. The power of drug-traffickers and arms-smuggling groups is also growing. Alongside these factors, the Brazilian state has ineptly extended its authority over certain groups and areas of the country.

Crime and violence are complex phenomena that are reflected in various ways. One common form of violence is homicide. In Brazil, the number of homicides per 100,000 inhabitants rose from 11.7 in 1980 to 26.2 in 1999, a 223 percent increase. Although the data for the last two years are not available, specialists suggest that the rising trend persists.

Despite the rising crime throughout Brazil, the picture is not homogenous, as one can perceive important regional variations. According to government data, violence is concentrated mainly in urban areas. As shown in Table 1, violence affects primarily the most densely urbanized and industrialized states of the southeastern region, such as São Paulo (44 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants), Rio de Janeiro (52.6) and Espírito Santo (51.9). Nevertheless, violence in other regions has significantly risen as well, even though these rates have been lower than the country’s average. If one compares the average rates of homicide in the 1980s and 1990s, one can see that, out of the 27 states of the Brazilian federation, only Minas Gerais and Piauí recorded a drop in the homicide rate in the 1990s. On the other hand, the states of Mato Grosso and Sergipe showed the fastest rates of growth during this period.

As an urban phenomenon, violence has dramatically affected some of the main Brazilian cities, especially Recife, São Paulo, and Rio de Janeiro. According to the Ministry of Health, these cities recorded homicide rates above 60 per 100,000 inhabitants in 1999. The most serious case, however, is Vitória, which recorded 80.5 per 100,000 inhabitants. To better illustrate the gravity of these numbers, in 2000 New York, Chicago, and Los Angeles recorded less than 7 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants. In some European capitals such as Paris, London, and Madrid, the rate was below 2 per 100,000.

Police inefficiency and lack of enforcement worsen the situation. The police departments, which are precariously trained, poorly paid, and lack an effective system of accountability, do not inspire trust in citizens. In many states, police are seen as part of the crime problem, prompting the need for reform of the police system. According to a survey conducted by the SEADE Foundation in 2001, 55 percent of robbery victims in São Paulo did not report the incident to the authorities. In Rio de Janeiro, that percentage rises to 60 percent, according to the Getúlio Vargas Foundation. The main alleged reasons for this distrust are the police departments’ inefficiency, corruption, and violence of their own.

 

Elections and Public Security

The electorate has noticed the rise in crime and the malfunctioning of the police departments. In March 2002, a national survey by the Datafolha Institute found public security to be the second main concern of Brazilian voters (21 percent), surpassed only by the issue of unemployment (32 percent). By way of contrast, in 1996 violence was cited as a problem by only 2 percent of Brazilians. That rate increased to 5 percent in May 1997, dropped back to 2 percent in December 1997 and hovered at around 3 percent in December 1998. The percentage increased to 6 percent in September 1999 and to 13 percent in June 2000. In March 2002 it reached 21 percent. In the states of the southeast and in some states of the center-west region, urban crime and police reform rank as the principal concern of the electorate, surpassing unemployment.

Opinions are divided over who should be primarily accountable for public security. 32 percent believe it must be the president, 30 percent believe it should be the governors, and 27 percent blame the mayors. However, police departments are legally under state control, so the governors are deemed most responsible for public security. Thus, in almost all Brazilian states the topic of urban violence will largely determine the elections for governor. In São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, for example, all candidates have included the issue at the top of their political platforms.

About 37 percent of voters think that the federal government has not devoted enough effort to the criminality problem. This will change this year, as public security has ceased to be a local issue and acquired national prominence. Because the problem affects primarily the most densely populated states, candidates for the presidency will have to include proposals for police reform and public security policies in their platforms. Two of the main candidates, Luís Inácio “Lula” da Silva (Partido dos Trabalhadores-PT) and Anthony Garotinho (Partido Socialista Brasileiro-PSB) have already done so and are likely to use their platforms against the government candidate José Serra (Partido Social Democrático Brasileiro-PSDB).

Most Brazilians (57 percent) believe that the government should invest more in social welfare programs to fight crime, especially in the area of employment creation and improvement of public education. In addition, about 38 percent of Brazilians (the same rate as June 2000) believe the government should increase the amount of better-trained and better-equipped policemen on the streets. The voters who support the four main presidential candidates-José Serra (PSDB), Lula (PT), Garotinho (PSB), and Ciro Gomes (Partido Popular Social-PPS)-have the same opinion when it comes to the solutions to crime. Regardless of a citizen’s ideological identity, fighting crime involves social welfare and police reform.

The divergence appears when it comes to judging the effort made by the federal government. Only 26 percent of those who intend to vote for José Serra think the government has not been zealous enough. Other voters believe the effort by the federal government has been reasonable. Supporters of Anthony Garotinho are the most critical: 42 percent think the government has no zeal for finding a solution.

In many countries, greater crime rates have benefited conservative candidates who tend to resort to “law and order” policies to satisfy voters. Such was the case of Republican Rudolph Giuliani in New York City and, more recently, of the ultra-right-winger Jean Marie Le Pen, in France. Politicians and parties from the left, traditionally aligned with human rights movements, have appeared uncomfortable in dealing with the issue.

Until 1998, the same held for Brazil. The victory of Anthony Garotinho for governor of the state of Rio de Janeiro, however, proved that the left could also propose attractive public security ideas. Assisted by a number of specialists in public security, Garotinho took the issue away from conservatives with an innovative platform focused on police reform.

In an attempt to replicate Garotinho’s success, this past February the Workers’ Party (PT) launched a national anticrime program called the National Program for Public Security. The document embodies a series of innovations in public security policy. It proposes for example, to enlarge the scope of federal government involvement-both in terms of policing strategies and of programs targeted at groups that are vulnerable to violence. It also includes proposals for police reform. Notably, former collaborators of Anthony Garotinho, who broke off with the governor after a series of disagreements, drafted the program.

However, claims for increased manpower and harsher security policies-such as the New Yorker “Zero Tolerance” policy-still are very popular with the voters. Traditionally, this sentiment has advantaged right-wing candidates. Right-wing parties, however, have no candidate for president this year; therefore only candidates for governor, such as Paulo Maluf (Partido Popular Brasileiro-PPB) who is running for governor of São Paulo, will likely tend to this type of discourse.

 

Conclusion

In closing, this year’s elections will bring the distressing theme of crime to the forefront of campaigns for the first time in recent history. This has prompted left- and right-wing parties to present strong public security platforms to voters. That does not apply to the government party, however. Thus, the crime boom is most likely to affect the PSDB, because the rise in crime is associated with governmental policies carried out in the past eight years. Candidate José Serra will have to convince voters that the federal government has made a strong effort to fight crime, not as easy task given his party’s track record. Nevertheless, he must try, as it appears that this will be the differentiating factor that determines who will be the next president of Brazil.

 

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Endnotes

Note *:   Arthur Costa has a master’s in political science and is a candidate for a doctorate in sociology. He was a professor at the University of Brasília from 1997 to 1999 and a visiting scholar at Columbia University, New York City, in 2001. He is a member of the nongovernmental organization Transparency, Conscious, and Citizenship (TCC) of Brazil, part of Transparency International and is researching political violence in Latin America.  Back.