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CIAO DATE: 04/03
Mexico Alert: Mayoral Election in Ciudad Juárez
George W. Grayson *
Hemisphere Focus: 2001-2002
May 7, 2002
Overview
Jesús Alfredo Delgado, nominee of the National Action Party (PAN), appeared to have won the July 1, 2001, mayoral election in Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, which lies across the Río Grande from El Paso, Texas. The 58-year-old lawyer wound up with a 3.2 percent advantage over Roberto Barraza Jordán, a successful businessman who was the standard bearer of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), with candidates of the Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) and several minor parties left in the dust amid anemic turnout.
No sooner had the tally been announced, however, than PRI spokesmen screamed foul over the outcome of what had been a bitter, mudslinging race. They argued that outgoing PAN mayor, Gustavo Elizondo Aguilar, and other officials had exerted undue influence in favor of their candidate. Among their 13 formal complaints, the priístas insisted that Delgado’s supporters had circumvented federal and state expenditure laws by airing some $1,500 in commercials on El Paso television stations. For their part, PAN activists argued the PRI had engaged in influence peddling and that PRI governor, Patricio Martínez García, had brought pressure to bear on the State Electoral Tribunal (TEE) to reverse the outcome. So acrimonious were the exchanges that Juárez Bishop Renato Ascencio León called for an end to ‘verbal attacks, defamations, insults, and slanders.’ Such admonitions aside, the exchanges became even more venomous when the TEE voided the election in August.
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Results of July 1, 2001 Mayoral Election in Ciudad Juárez (Annulled)
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Candidate
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Party
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Votes Received
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Percent
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| Jesús Alfredo Delgado Muñoz | PAN | 128,379 | 45.25 |
| Roberto Barraza Jordán | PRI | 119,288 | 42.04 |
| Norma Solís | PRD | 14,360 | 5.06 |
| Héctor González Mocken | PT & PVEM | 12,789 | 4.51 |
| Minor Parties | Minor Parties | 8,925 | 3.15 |
| Total | 283,741 | ~100 | |
On October 10, two days before Delgado’s planned inauguration, the Federal Electoral Tribunal (TEPJF) confirmed the state court’s annulment of the results. While Mayor Elizondo disputed TEPJF’s opinion as a blow to democracy, this finding demonstrated the increasing role of the judiciary in resolving electoral conflicts, which used to be decided in closed-door meetings between representatives of the Ministry of Government (Gobernación) and the parties to the dispute.
The reversal set the stage for a special election for mayor on May 12, 2002. Once again, the heavyweight contenders are Delgado and Barraza. The PRD-whose modest strength in Chihuahua has been further eroded by an intramural donnybrook-fielded José Luis Rodríguez Chávez as its candidate, while the rightwing Social Alliance Party (PAS) nominated its state president, Josefina de Lourdes Stanley Alvaitero.
Although the PAN has held Ciudad Juárez city hall for nine years, Barrazo appears stronger this go-round. He is running under the banner of the “United Alliance for Juárez,” the first coalition that the PRI has entered into in Chihuahua. In addition to the PRI, this alliance embraces the Workers Party (PT), the Mexican Green Ecological Party (PVEM), and the minuscule National Social Alliance Party (PAS). Barraza also benefits from the luxury of running against an incumbent party in a city of 1.5 million inhabitants, Mexico’s sixth largest, that is plagued with problems. The United Alliance has excoriated the PAN for the lawlessness that afflicts Ciudad Juárez, zeroing in on the rise in drug-related killings, the unsolved serial murders of 269 women, shootouts between narcotraffickers, and drug addiction among young people. The PRI identifies Delgado with this ‘reign of violence,’ because he served from 1997 to late 2000 as secretary to the PAN mayor and city council. In turn, the PAN has concentrated its fire on Gov. Martínez, lambasting him for cronyism and corruption when he served as mayor of Chihuahua, the state capital, as well as allegedly enriching himself through ties with drug barons.
In addition, the PRI contender has enjoyed greater ‘news’ coverage by local television and radio stations, according to the Chihuahua State Electoral Institute’s March 20-April 15 survey.
A mid-April survey found the PRI with a narrow advantage. Barraza (37.7 percent) narrowly led Delgado (35.6 percent), while Rodríguez (0.8 percent) and Stanley showed scant support. Among respondents most likely to cast ballots, Barraza enjoyed a four point advantage (50.6 to 46.6 percent).
The PAN, which claims a seven point advantage in an early May internal poll, and the PRI both express confidence of victory. Their top politicians have crisscrossed the city on behalf of their favorite sons. In its closing rally-held on Cinco de Mayo-the PAN rolled out the big guns, including party president Luis Felipe Bravo Mena, secretary general Manuel Espino Barrientos, the PAN Chamber of Deputies leader, Felipe Calderón Hinojosa, two state governors, four senators, eleven state legislators, and various high-level federal office holders. The PRI-led Alliance decided to forego a similar event to save $11,000 for electoral purposes. Clearly, the major parties have earmarked huge amounts of money for the contest; and they have filled the air waves with radio and television commercials. What explains the extraordinary national interest in this election? There are several factors:
1. In February and March, the largest parties selected their leaders. Bravo Mena, who won reelection as PAN president, is eager to reverse the 13 to 15 point decline in state and local elections suffered by his party since Vicente Fox was elected chief executive with 42.5 percent of the vote on July 2, 2000. Bravo Mena is also determined to remove the blemish from his party’s image caused by the TEPJF’s overturning the July 1, 2001, mayoral election. After all, the middle-class PAN-which prides itself on emphasizing democracy, transparency, and fair play-has always decried the skullduggery used by the PRI and PRD. “We experienced a loss of virginity in Ciudad Juárez and now we want to regain our virtue,” said one PAN official who asked to remain anonymous. In this quest, according to the same source, the PAN has allocated funds for the race that rival those spent on gubernatorial elections.
2. PAN officials want to strike a legal blow against Gov. Martínez, who, they contend, has launched a vendetta against their party. They accuse him of such underhanded tactics as mobilizing public employees and resources on behalf of Barraza and discouraging observers from scrutinizing the electoral process. On April 7, El Norte newspaper reported that the state government had financed campaign activities throughout the state by hundreds of priísta activists, most of whom were teachers. The PRI responded that the PAN mayor of Parral had used official vehicles to bring people to a pro-Delgado gathering in late April. To address concerns about possible fraud, in early May Chihuahua’s attorney general appointed a “special attorney” to oversee the contest and receive complaints about cheating.
3. Newly-elected PRI president, Roberto Madrazo, has also moved heaven and earth to obtain a Barraza triumph in Ciudad Juárez. Following a paper-thin victory for his deeply-riven party’s top post, he seeks to legitimize his position by winning elections, beginning with the May 12 showdown. This contest is all the more important because he craves a success under his belt when he announces his agenda to the PRI’s 1,135 member National Political Council, which meets on May 15.
4. Gov. Martínez has his own axe to grind. He remains furious at President Fox both for not meeting with him after he returned to Chihuahua upon recovering from a near-fatal assassination attempt in January 2001 and for not providing more money and law-enforcement personnel to combat the drug-trafficking, gang violence, prostitution, and other crimes that afflict the state in general and Ciudad Juárez in particular. He exudes even greater animus toward Comptroller-General Francisco Barrio Terrazas, his predecessor in the governorship and a former Ciudad Juárez mayor (1983-1986). During Barrio’s term as state executive (1992-1998), Martínez, then mayor of Chihuahua, lambasted the governor for illegal acts. As Fox’s anti-corruption czar, Barrio has reciprocated by repeatedly accusing Martínez of wrongdoing. Martínez views a victory for Barraza as a defeat for the president and for his nemesis, Barrio.
5. While not a make or break event, Barrio regards the outcome as affecting his chances to succeed Fox in 2006. He is personally aligned with Delgado, and a PAN victory would enhance Barrio’s presidential prospects, while competitors would use a defeat to argue that he is weak on his home turf.
6. Now under new (or renewed) leadership, the major parties are trying out slogans, media appeals, direct mail, and other campaign devices in Ciudad Juárez to determine whether they would be effective, not only in the four remaining state and local contests this year, but also in 2003 when voters elect the 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies, as well as governors in Campeche, Colima, Nuevo León, Querétaro, San Luis Potosí, and Sonora, on July 6. The PRI regards a victory on May 12 as vital to maintaining its presence in the North, which Fox swept in 2000 and where the PAN is favored to capture the governorships of Nuevo León and Sonora next year.
7. A Barraza triumph as a coalition candidate would embolden PRI politicians, who once enjoyed the luxury of standing alone, to explore other alliances. For instance, a pact with the PRD could yield defeats of the PAN in states like Sonora and Querétaro in mid-2003.
8. Sunday’s outcome in a city that boasts 36 percent of the state’s voters could provide a clue as to who will capture Chihuahua’s governorship in 2004 when the incumbent must step down. Martínez, who backed Madrazo’s opponent in the PRI’s recent intramural showdown, yearns to play the role of power broker, possibly to assist Victor Anchondo Paredes in obtaining their party’s nomination. A Barraza victory will strengthen Martínez’s hand with respect to both Madrazo and the PAN.
9. Other governors are keeping a sharp eye on Ciudad Juárez because they-like Martínez-are eager to assert greater influence in their states vis-à-vis party chiefs and federal authorities, spurring greater decentralization of power.
10. Although local issues have dominated the battle in Ciudad Juárez, the outcome may give some indication as to whether Fox’s recent imbroglios-the Senate’s vetoing his trip to the U.S. and Canada, his acrimonious exchanges with Fidel Castro, the Supreme Court of Justice’s voiding his electricity initiative-have benefited the PRI at the PAN’s expense.
After enduring highly publicized domestic and international setbacks in April, Fox has extended the olive branch to party leaders in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate. If the executive and legislative branches can agree on priorities, a special congressional session could take place in June. The chief executive is eager to improve his lackluster record since taking office a year and a half ago. For their part, lawmakers are mindful of their low standing in public opinion polls. A June session would give Fox and his opponents a chance to demonstrate whether their talk of “greater cooperation” and “working together” is genuine or merely rhetorical. Should Barraza nose out Delgado in Ciudad Juárez, the panistas-convinced before election day that Martínez would employ corrupt practices against them-might launch demonstrations and attempt to void the outcome in the electoral courts. Such a dispute could poison PAN-PRI relations and put the kibosh on both the executive-legislative rapprochement and on the convening of Congress next month. Chihuahua may once again furnish a preview of coming attractions in Mexico’s mercurial political system.
Endnotes
Note *: George W. Grayson, is an adjunct fellow at CSIS who teaches Government at the College of William & Mary. One of his most recent publications is Mexico: Changing of the Guard, published by the Foreign Policy Association in New York. The author can be reached at gwgray@wm.edu. Back.