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CIAO DATE: 2/00
Argentina Alert: Presidential election season begins
Michael A. May and Carlos Regúnaga
Hemisphere Focus: 1998-2000
January 19, 1999
Overview
President Menem has concluded what was probably his final state visit to Washington. He returned to Argentina in the midst of election year maneuvering that should result in a new chief executive occupying the Casa Rosada. Presidential elections are scheduled for October of this year. Menem, who most constitutional experts and politicians believe is prohibited from running for a third term, has governed the country since 1989. His political acumen, tenacity, and successful economic policy has left the opposition in disarray for most of his presidency. Unfortunately for his “Peronist” (Justicialist) party, Menem’s air of invincibility has not rubbed off on would-be successors.
Opposition Cohesion
In October of 1997 the opposition Alliance, a combination of the Radical Civic Union (UCR), a centrist party, and FREPASO, a front composed of a number of smaller parties on the left of the political spectrum, won a stunning victory in congressional elections. One of the most important Alliance victories occurred when charismatic former human rights activist, Graciela Fernández Meijide defeated “Chiche” Duhalde (Peronist party), the wife of the sitting governor of Buenos Aires, Eduardo Duhalde, for the post of Federal Deputy for Buenos Aires Province. This was the first election setback for the political machine that Duhalde had so painstakingly built.
One year later, on October 29, Argentina informally initiated its presidential election cycle with the presidential primary of the Alliance. Fernando de la Rúa, the Radical party centrist mayor of the Buenos Aires Federal District, defeated Representative Fernández Meijide and instantly became the front-runner in the October 1999 presidential election. The primary offered voters a choice between two different styles and outlooks. De la Rúa ran as a successful manager and “new” Radical who would pursue a sound economic policy. Fernández Meijide, more charismatic than her rather traditional opponent, particularly as portrayed in the media, stressed social themes. Both Alliance candidates agreed on the need to attack government corruption, although De la Rúa seemed less interested in launching investigations into alleged cases of corruption on the federal level. Both nominees vowed to maintain the country’s current economic plan, but Fernández Meijide’s camp was somewhat sketchy regarding details.
When the Alliance was formed, its major leaders agreed that the presidential ticket would be the result of an open primary, held simultaneously all over the country, between two candidates, one nominated by FREPASO and the other by the UCR. Depending on circumstances, the defeated nominee could become the candidate for the vice-presidency. After De la Rúa’s victory, the Alliance decided that Fernández Meijide should run for the Buenos Aires provincial governorship, in the hope of repeating her stunning 1997 triumph in the Province. The other top FREPASO leader, Carlos “Chacho” Alvarez, complete the national ticket as the Alliance’s vice presidential candidate. Most political analysts believe that this distribution of candidacies offers the Alliance a formidable ticket.
The Córdoba Comeback
Just as it appeared that the Alliance was gaining momentum, the Peronists were buoyed by a key victory. On December 20, Senator José Manuel de la Sota defeated the sitting UCR governor, Ramón Mestre, and won the governorship of Córdoba, a major industrial center and a Radical party stronghold with nearly fifty percent of the vote to forty-two percent. This surprise outcome reversed two previous defeats and ended a 15-year dominance for the Radical party in Córdoba. Mestre had introduced tough but necessary reforms in the province to combat tax evasion (it is estimated that roughly 50 percent of “Cordobeses” pay little or no provincial taxes) and reduced benefits to those on provincial pensions. These reforms proved unpopular and created an image that the Radical party in Córdoba was out of touch with the electorate and that change was needed. De la Sota, on the other hand, promised to cut taxes by thirty percent and to allocate any additional revenue that may come from a reduction of tax evasion to fund education, health, and unemployment programs.
Spin-doctors for both blocs attempted to portray the gubernatorial election as a harbinger of things to come. The Alliance claimed that the desire for change would work in its favor and oust the Peronists who have controlled the presidency since 1989. The Peronists interpreted the result as a vote of confidence in them and a desire to continue their policies into the next century. President Menem, Governor Duhalde and virtually every other party leader flew to Córdoba to bask in the victory. Despite what many consider to be an upset victory, the Justicialist Party does not yet have a standard bearer and the presence of Carlos Menem is still strongly felt.
Peronist Candidacies
With the Alliance candidates already selected, attention shifts toward the Peronist internal race. Four possible candidacies must be analyzed: those of Duhalde, Ortega, Reutemann and, of course, one cannot rule out that of Menem himself.
The President’s chances of being renominated are very slim this time. The 1994 Constitutional Reform allowed citizens to hold the presidency for two consecutive four-year terms. Any further reelection would require an intermediate term by another president. In order to avoid any doubt, a temporary clause was added indicating that the six-year term Menem was then serving would be counted as his first term. His running again this year depends, therefore, on his circumventing this clause.
An agreement with the opposition would be required in order to abrogate this limiting provision. Such an accord does not seem politically possible. A Supreme Court ruling that would regard the temporary clause of the constitution as unconstitutional is more likely, given Menem’s influence on the majority of justices he has appointed. The expectation is that such ruling would come only if Menem’s approval rating, which is now at one of the lowest points in ten years, improves considerably. For all of the above, it is most probable that the insistence on the possibility of seeking a new reelection is really designed to show up Menem’s lame-duck presidency and to allow him to retain as much influence as possible in order to increase his chances as king-maker.
Duhalde is, as of today, the front-runner. He has made it clear that he wants the Presidency and has put his entire political machinery to work towards that end. His district is the most populated in the country and the 1994 constitutional reform has helped him by introducing a direct election system, which replaces the previous system of electoral votes. He is not receiving enough support from other Peronist governors, however, principally because of Menem’s pressures against him.
Should Duhalde finally become the Justicialist candidate, we may see him positioned to the left of the Alliance. The Governor himself told the authors in November that an Alliance led by De la Rúa would leave a vacuum on the left that would attract votes from that portion of the spectrum back to Peronism. De la Rúa, on the other hand, is likely to receive the support of voters most interested in the continuity of pro-business free-enterprise policies who have consistently backed Menem in the last decade but may not quite trust Duhalde in that respect.
Ramón Ortega, a very popular singer and pop-music composer better known by his nickname “Palito”, is apparently losing the support he originally received from the menemistas who resist Duhalde’s nomination. Although his popularity assures him instant recognition at all social and economic levels, it is not clear how much of that can be translated into actual votes. His four years as Governor of Tucumán were very controversial. In addition, some people feel that he would be more comfortable running for the vice-presidency with any of the other candidates.
Former Formula One race car champion and ex-governor of Santa Fe Province Carlos Reutemann is the most difficult to assess. His administration of the Province, the third largest in the country, has been highly praised. Although currently a Senator, polls indicate that he is likely to win the governorship again should he decide to run. Menem’s camp has tempted him with the presidential candidacy in case the President himself does not run. The general belief is that Reutemann would be relatively independent. However, unlike Duhalde, he would not compete for Menem’s overall leadership of the Peronist movement.
From Reutemann’s point of view, it might be safer to run again for governor, with the logical expectation that a victory this year would make him the most likely presidential candidate in 2003. Although polls still show the Alliance ahead of the Peronists, the margin has been reduced. He may bet on a De la Rúa victory and then wait for the internal friction that an Alliance government would surely face and run in the 2003 election. This may be wishful thinking in that Menem—despite increased age—has already indicated that he will again occupy the Casa Rosada in 2003!
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