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CIAO DATE: 04/03
Venezuela Alert: Chávez is Likely Winner
Lowell R. Fleischer *
Hemisphere Focus: 1998-2000
Series VIII, Issue 10
May 26, 2000
Overview
Barring dramatic last-minute developments, it appears that President Hugo Chávez Frias will prevail by a decisive margin in the May 28 Venezuelan presidential elections. He has maintained a consistent 15- to 20-point lead over his principal challenger and one-time comrade in arms, Francisco Arias Cárdenas. It is more uncertain, however, whether the president's formidable coattails will prove sufficiently long to give him control of the new 165-seat unicameral National Assembly. Chávez has pleaded with voters to give him a clear legislative majority so his "peaceful revolution" could continue unabated.
The elections, necessary because of the new constitution approved last year, will be the most complex in Venezuelan history. Venezuelan voters, who will go to the polls for the sixth time in a little more than a year, will elect over 6,000 officials: the president, national assembly members, state governors and legislatures, mayors and city councils, as well as a variety of other local councils. The names of some 36,000 candidates will appear on the 24 different ballots to be used.
Pressure from groups that would like to see the elections postponed continue even now, at the last minute. According to Venezuelan press reports, at least two separate groups were expected to ask the Supreme Court to order the suspension of the elections because voters had not been provided with lists of the candidates for each office. Some government critics speculate that electoral authorities, all appointed by Chávez, will announce at the last minute that only the presidential election will be held on May 28, and all others would be postponed for technical reasons.
Ruben Perina, head of the observation team of the Organization of American States in Venezuela, has expressed concerns about the inability of election officials to correct computer glitches that could create problems during the elections. Also the Carter Center, which is sending a 30-person observation team headed by former U.S. president Jimmy Carter, has issued a report expressing concern over the "high level of uncertainty and distrust generated by the provisional nature of the legal framework and the method of appointment of the electoral authorities."
Chávez Leads in Polls by 15-20 Percent
The most recent poll by Consultores 21, published on May 17, gave Chávez 50.8 percent of the vote and Arias 31.4 percent. According to a Datanalisis survey carried out between May 13-17, Chávez is the preferred candidate of 54 percent of the voters, the same margin as last month. Arias trailed with 37 percent, up from 33 percent last month. Former Caracas mayor Claudio Fermin, who has called himself the only civilian candidate in the race, has seen his support drop to about 4 percent from 5 percent in April. Only 4.6 percent of those questioned in the Datanalisis poll were undecided.
The growing discontent within Chávez's revolutionary movement does not appear to have dampened his chances for victory. Leaders of the Patria Para Todos (PPT), one of three parties making up Chávez's ruling coalition, said they fear the country's militarization and a dangerous concentration of power in Chávez's hands and therefore do not support his reelection. They did not, however, endorse Chávez's opponent in the election. The party accounted for about 3-4 percent of Chávez's vote last year. Oil Minister Ali Rodríguez, a prominent member of PPT and the current president of OPEC, announced that he would stay in the government.
In the last weeks of the campaign, Chávez launched vitriolic attacks on the Catholic Church and the media. In a rambling 20-page letter to Venezuela's Catholic bishops, Chávez compared his political reforms to the teachings of Jesus Christ and warned that any attempts to block his "revolution" could end in violence. The strongly worded letter, which quoted the Bible, Pope John Paul II, and French philosopher Jean-Jacques Rousseau, was sent in response to criticisms last month by church leaders who said Chávez twisted the Bible's words to suit his needs. "(Chávez's) aim is to cause the other components of society to disappear," Monsignor Baltazar Porras, bishop of Merida and president of the Venezuelan Episcopal Conference, said in a press interview, "so that, with nothing between the government and the masses, there's no need for a dialogue. That's dangerous and damaging for any society."
The campaign, which only began on May 1, has been short on issues. In the 1999 elections, Chávez rode the anticorruption wave into office, but this year the issue has cut both ways. The country's independent attorney general has brought charges against Arias' campaign manager, Jorge Garrido, for allegedly embezzling money while he was head of a government office. The attorney general has also recommended that a court open a case against Luis Miquilena, the president's mentor and head of the interim congress, who has been accused of awarding a state contract to a company in which he held shares.
President to Concentrate on Economy
In a nationally televised speech last week, Chávez promised to move away from the political confrontation that has marked his first 15 months in office and to concentrate on rescuing Venezuela's faltering economy. In outlining his plans for his next six years in office, the president said his revolution had served as an escape valve for popular frustrations that had been building up for years.
Chávez said he was committed to the democratic rule of law, but in the same breath praised Libya as a model for such a democracy because of Qadhafi's use of "popular assemblies all over the place." The president has been criticized for what his opponents say is sacrificing good relations with the United States and Colombia, Venezuela's two main trading partners, in favor of boosting ties with China, Cuba, and the Middle East oil-producing nations. In his official campaign document, Chávez said his government would develop "even more" its good relations with the United States. Venezuela has an "indestructible friendship" with the United States, the document stated.
He insisted that he was not opposed to private capital, as his critics have claimed, but reiterated that economic growth had to be accompanied by more equitable distribution of wealth.
Arias Says He Would Talk Less and Do More
Arias, the former governor of oil-rich Zulia state, has been concentrating his attacks on what he says is the failure of the Chávez government to respond to economic problems, the surge in unemployment, personal insecurity, and lack of foreign investment. If elected president, he said he would move away from Chávez's revolutionary rhetoric and concentrate on creating jobs and curbing rampant crime. He said he considers himself much more of a "public manager" than a military commander and insisted Chávez had brought Venezuela dangerously close to dictatorship since taking office last year. He told foreign reporters that he would cooperate fully with the United States in the war on drugs and would turn Venezuela into a "modern country in international trade." He said the only role of the armed forces should be to guarantee the security and defense of the nation.
Arias has the support of the majority of Venezuela's middle and upper classes, but he has been unable to make significant inroads among the poor who make up more than 80 percent of the electorate. Chávez supporters threw trash, bricks, and food at Arias while he was campaigning in a Caracas slum. Some residents displayed an effigy of him with a sign on its chest reading "traitor." Later, Chávez asked his supporters to refrain from hurling objects at Arias "because indifference hurts more than a rock."
Arias, a former artillery officer who once wanted to be a priest, was the ideological leader of the 1992 coup plotters, while Chávez was the action man. Arias, considered to have been an excellent governor, has been handicapped by a stiff and aloof public image. In contrast, Chávez is a wisecracking, gregarious, baseball-playing, natural politician. Even if, as now seems likely, Arias loses, he may emerge as Chávez's first serious rival since the traditional political parties collapsed.
Rumors of Military Discontent Surface
According to some reports, many military officers and soldiers are flocking to Arias. For the first time soldiers can vote, a change that is causing concern among officers who want to keep the armed forces out of politics. In a recent manifesto, a group of more than 100 retired officers led by General Fernando Ochoa Antich, who was minister of defense during Chávez's 1992 coup attempt, warned that under Chávez the armed forces "have begun to be seen as an organization at the service of a political project and not the nation." Chávez, they said, has "politicized the armed forces and fractured their internal unity" by using military events to "batter and insult his political adversaries." Ochoa later was quoted as saying, "I'm almost sure that within a short time, there will be a military conspiracy in Venezuela."
Earlier this month, a group claiming to consist of captains distributed a statement to Venezuelan journalists threatening a coup unless Chávez makes "radical changes" in his agenda.
In an interview published last week, Chávez denied that army officers were plotting to overthrow him. "I am sure that Venezuelan soldiers are incorporated in the Venezuelan revolutionary process. They have assimilated it," Chávez told a Caracas newspaper. He dismissed the retired generals' statements as politically motivated and unrepresentative of military officers and soldiers.
Coup Unlikely for Now
Despite rumblings, a coup seems unlikely unless Chávez loses significant support among the masses. It is difficult to gauge the extent of his military support because no reliable surveys exist. But the split between the president and three former commanders who helped stage his 1992 coup attempt, including Arias, has brought to light some military dissatisfaction with the Chávez agenda.
Hugo Chávez, blessed with extraordinary charisma and adept at the astute use of symbolism, has connected with the Venezuelan people like few leaders before him. He has rekindled hope in the slums that are home to a majority of Venezuela's 23 million people, who believe his promise that his "Bolivarian revolution" will soon bear fruit. The nation may well be more divided than it was in 1999, however. Hating the president has become somewhat of a national pastime for the middle and upper classes. Chávez does not need their support to win the election, but he does need their expertise and money. He needs to keep them in the country and to use their talents to bring about a sustained economic recovery and political reconciliation.
Lowell R. Fleischer is a senior associate in the Americas Program at CSIS. He is also contributing editor of the Latin American Law and Business Report and the North American Investment Report. He is a retired foreign service officer, who served in Venezuela, and a former deputy director of the Washington Office of the Council of the Americas. He has taught at the University of Connecticut and the University of Massachusetts and has been a consultant to the World Bank and the U.S. Institute of Peace. Dr. Fleischer is a graduate of Ohio Wesleyan University and holds M.A. and Ph.D. degrees from the University of Connecticut. Back.
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