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CIAO DATE: 04/03
Guatemala Alert: Guatemala's Millennium Elections
Georges A. Fauriol *
Hemisphere Focus: 1998-2000
November 7, 1999
Overview
Guatemala will hold on November 7 its first mayoral, congressional, and presidential elections since the signing of the 1996 Peace Accords that ended a protracted 36-year civil war. The elections carry with them profound implications for a fragile democratic process begun in the mid-1980s with the collapse of military governance. Though the Peace Accords signaled a major break with the past, the incoming government faces serious political and economic challenges.
The Candidates
The presidential race is essentially a two-party contest between Oscar Berger of the PAN, Partido de Avanzada Nacional, and Alfonso Portillo of the FRG, Frente Republicano Guatemalteco. Since June, Portillo has steadily increased his lead in the polls, (46.2% vs. 29.6%, according to a Borge & Asociados/Prensa Libre poll released October 28), running on a center right platform differing very little from that of Berger. However, competing poll data from the Asociación de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales suggest a narrower race, placing Portillo's support at 36.3% and Berger's at 28.5%. Overall, Portillo has benefited from a generalized if vague discontent with the current PAN-led government of Alvaro Arzú, concerns over public safety, a poorly performing economy (although not in crisis), and accusations of corruption. Most importantly, Portillo has run an aggressive campaign to which Berger seems to have been unable to respond in either substance or style. On the defensive since the summer, the Berger team has appeared lethargic and unable to carve out a clear electoral message.
Coming in a distant third in the polls is Alvaro Colom, former director of the Fonapaz, Fondo Nacional para la Paz created under the 1996 Peace Accords. His new ANN (Alianza Nueva Nación) party brings together portions of left-wing and the radical end of the political spectrum. This comprises the DIA, Desarollo Integral Auténtico, UNID, Unidad Izquierdista Democrática, and the former URNG, Unidad Revolucionaria Nacional Guatemalteca, guerrillas of the civil war who have supported the Peace Accords. With an estimated 7% of the vote, the ANN has a small but significant piece of the electoral pie in its first-ever elections.
Francisco Bianchi of the Arde, Acción Reconciliadora Democrática, is an evangelist with a business background who served as government spokesman for the 1982-83 military regime of General Efrain Ríos-Montt. Bianchi has run a modest campaign with limited impact on its close political cousin, the FRG. Acisclo Valladares of the PLP, Partido Libertador Progresista, like the Arde party has poll numbers that have hovered around the 2% mark throughout the campaign and are the most visible of the "smaller party" candidates. Danilo Roca represents the UCN, Unidad Cristiana Nacional, a party that in the previous 15 years had dominated the democratic opposition but now enjoys very limited residual support. Other presidential candidates include Catalina Soberanis of the FDNG, Frente Democrático Nueva Guatemala, Emilio Eva Saldivar of the AD, Alianza Democrática, Carlos Humberto Perez of the MLN, Movimiento de Liberación Nacional, Flor de María de Solis of the Arena, Alianza Reconciliadora Nacional, and José Enrique Asturias of the LOV, La Organización Verde. None among this last group is likely to garner much support. The Christian Democrats, the leadership party in the 1985 democratic transition, has fallen on hard times and are fielding only local candidates.
In addition to the presidential race, there will be 113 contested seats for the Congress and 330 mayoral seats. A mandate of the Peace Accords, the number of congressional representatives will increase by 33, from the current 80 seats, as part of an initiative to increase popular representation in Congress. A recent Borge & Asociados/ Prensa Libre poll suggests that the FRG will do well in congressional races, with about 42% of the vote against 25% for the PAN, and therefore could dominate legislative politics. This is significant if Portillo ultimately wins the presidency. At present, the balance is 42 of 80 seats for the PAN. Troubling is the fact that late in the race some polls are still suggesting that roughly 20% of the electorate is undecided.
Despite this bleak electoral outlook for the PAN, all may not seem to be lost in this year's elections. Fritz García-Gallont of the PAN holds a commanding lead over the FRG's Luis Rabbé, 41% to 23%, in the all important mayoral race for Guatemala City. Home to a quarter of the country's population, the mayoral seat, if won by García-Gallont, will continue PAN control for the fourth consecutive administration, a record that began with Alvaro Arzú and has continued under Berger. However, despite the PAN's generally positive record in the capital city area and Berger's well-regarded management of issues, it appears not to have translated into a successful presidential bid.
Campaign Issues
The campaign has not been marked by much substance. What has dominated is disappointments over economic performance, miscellaneous episodes related to corruption, the Bishop Gerardi affair, and only vaguely the outcome of the 1996 peace accords. Foreign policy has not been a significant electoral factor, although late in the campaign some eyebrows were raised following Arzú's visit to Cuba. His public political embrace of Fidel Castro had a diplomatic rational in the context of the peace process, but did little to give the PAN a boost in the polls.
The normally stable quetzal has dropped markedly in recent months and the cost of living is on the rise. The unemployment rate is high and total exports over the past year have experienced a precipitous drop of -27.4%, due in part to the debilitating effects Hurricane Mitch and heavy rains this year. Privatization efforts, most notably the national telecommunications company Telgua (formerly Guatel) in 1997, have not been stellar performers.
Corruption has continued to be a preoccupation of the electorate, exemplified by a recent poll in which 49% of the people said they felt the government was corrupt. The Arzú government is probably no more deficient in this area than some of it well-known predecessors but demands for accountability have clearly entered the political process in Guatemala. Contributing to this jaded view of public officials is the Campo Marte scandal that has developed during these last months leading to the elections. The Campo Marte is a sports complex in Guatemala City intended for public use that was remodeled with funds from the Fonapaz, Fondo Nacional para la Paz, and Taiwan, under the technical administration of an international non-governmental organization, the IOM, the International Organization for Migration. Press accounts indicate that payments were made and deposited in the personal accounts of the brother-in-law and mother-in-law of Alvaro Arzú's son Roberto.
The case of Bishop Juan Gerardi has attracted international attention and has become part police story, part theatre, part soap opera, collectively bringing the propriety of government affairs into question. A year and a half has passed since Bishop Gerardi was bludgeoned to death on April 28, 1998, two days after releasing a report of human rights violations that implicated the military as the primary perpetrator of war-time atrocities. The case was recently assigned to its third prosecutor (now in exile outside Guatemala).
Another issue of the campaign, at least for international observers, is the 1996 Peace Accords and the sluggish pace with which its terms are being implemented. A significant setback to the peace process and the reforms mandated by it occurred in May of this year when a politically unmanageable package of 50 constitutional reforms was rejected in a popular vote across the political spectrum. In the short term, this does not seem to have much lasting political impact. However, a more pressing question is what will the new government do to either energize the process or give it different priority. Neither Portillo nor Berger have given much detail to this question. It is assumed that Berger would most likely build on Arzú's achievements in the area -- despite the referendum setback. Portillo is not likely to steer away from the Accords either, but there are no specifics.
The indigenous population makes up 60% of the populace and comprises a large portion of the most severely impoverished sectors of the population. Typically underrepresented at the national level, there has been a growth of local "civic committees" that seek to address the situation. Ad hoc groups sometimes convened around election time, these committees serve as a forum for open dialogue about issues and put forth alternative candidates for local level elections. Though not restricted to the country side, many NGO's are attempting to seize the potential of this political environment as a means to develop inroads toward a more responsive relationship between national level politics and the rural community.
The Process
With declining voter turn-out over the last decade, Guatemala's electoral agency, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral, TSE, embarked upon an ambitious and successful voter registration campaign for this year's elections. They have worked closely with national and international organizations to increase election security and monitoring. The United Nations mission, Minugua, the OAS, and the Procuraduría de los Derechos Humanos, PDH, will have roughly 1200 observers at polling and counting stations throughout the country. Other organizations representing the international community's long term commitment to the democratic process, such as the International Republican Institute, will also indirectly have an impact. The National Police as well as military auxiliaries will be on hand at polling stations.
Until the release of the most recent Borge & Asociados/ Prensa Libre poll, a run-off election in December seemed to be a certainty. Yet with Portillo only short by 5% for an absolute majority (Borge & Asociados/ Prensa Libre), a resulting landslide has become the topic of much speculation. Pursuant to the Constitution of Guatemala, if neither candidate receives 51% of the popular vote, the top two vote-getters will move on to a run-off election scheduled for December 26. The Tribunal Supremo Electoral has come under some public criticism for its handling of the potential run-off election. Popular speculation holds that staging the decisive run-off on the day after Christmas will decrease voter turnout. Moreover, Berger would likely be disproportionately affected given that his support base lies with the urban, well-to-do sector that is more likely to be away on holiday or otherwise occupied. Portillo on the other hand has his strongest support in the poor rural areas where the population is more sedentary and thus more likely to be present on election day.
Who Will Win?
Berger has run a flaccid campaign in which he never successfully distanced himself from Arzú. For his part, the president does not seem to have gone out of his way to be helpful to Berger's campaign. Berger's "more of the same" approach to government has been attacked by a very aggressive Portillo campaign.
While Berger's support has stagnated for the last five months at approximately 30%, Portillo has made significant gains at every turn. Even the exposure of an episode in which he killed two men outside a bar in Chilpancingo, Mexico 17 years ago, and then fled so as to not stand trial, miraculously served to buttress his popular support. In a country where the general population is gravely concerned with pervasive crime, Portillo is perceived by many as a hard-nosed man who will enforce the rule of law and protect the nation's interests. Portillo is no doubt an astute politician. He began his political career at the left end of the political spectrum (explaining why he was in Mexico in the 1980's). Through successive transitions he has reinvented himself as a youngish, center-right, populist political figure. He ran a tough campaign in 1995 against Arzú. His political pedigree has been further enriched or complicated by his close association with General Efrain Ríos Montt, secretary general of the FRG, and controversial and pivotal figure in the early 1980s.
Portillo has a commanding lead and 87%. What is uncertain is whether the election will be decided after the first round or if indeed a run-off will be necessary. In the 1995 election, Alvaro Arzú beat Alfonso Portillo by approximately 16% in the first round, but barely eked out a 3% margin of victory in the second round. In the event of a run-off, both the PAN and the FRG will look to electoral allies. In this context, a pivotal constituency will be that of the ANN. Conventional wisdom is that the left will find it difficult to support a disciple of Ríos Montt, but many underestimate the populist pull of Portillo. Likewise, the ideological differences between the right and left may be so great so as to induce ANNistas to abstain, a move that would likely hurt Berger's chances rather than Portillo's. Another variable to watch will be Portillo's numbers in Guatemala City, Berger's stronghold. If the FRG does well, Berger's second round chances are slim.
Note *: Prior to joining CSIS, Georges Fauriol held staff and research positions with the Foreign Policy Research Institute, the U.S. Information Agency, and the Inter-American Development Bank. At CSIS, he directs the Center's projects on the Western Hemisphere. Dr. Fauriol is frequently called upon as a consultant to government agencies and has testified before Senate and House subcommittees. Fauriol is the author or coauthor of numerous books, including: Guatemala's Political Puzzle (Transaction Books, 1988); The Third Century: U.S.-Latin American Policy Choices in the 1990s (CSIS, 1988); Cuba, The International Dimension (Transaction Books, 1990); Haitian Frustrations (CSIS, 1995); and Fast Forward: Latin America on the Edge of the Twenty-first Century (Transaction Books, 1999). His articles have appeared in such publications as Foreign Affairs, Orbis, the Los Angeles Times, the Miami Herald, and the Christian Science Monitor. He holds a Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania. Back.
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