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The World Today
October 1998
The situation in Angola is very grave. Clashes still claim many lives, UNITA has virtually withdrawn from the Lusaka Protocol which it signed with the Government in 1994, and the peace process is in tatters. In addition, the country is now involved in much wider regional conflict.
Dame Margaret Anstee was Special Representative of the UN Secretary General and Head of the UN Verification Mission for Angola 1992–93. Her book Orphan of the Cold War, The Inside Story of the Collapse of the Angolan Peace Process, 1992–3 is published by MACMILLAN.
On October 4, Brazilians go to the polls to choose a president, state governors, the Chamber of Deputies and one third of the Senate. These elections are an important step towards the consolidation of democratic government in Brazil, after twenty one years of military rule (1964–1985) and a serious political crisis which led to the impeachment and resignation of President Fernando Collor de Mello in December 1992. The process shows the maturing of the third largest democracy in the world—with 106 million voters in a population that has reached 165 million.
Dr Paulo Wrobel is a Brazilian Visiting Fellow of Chatham House.
In April, Northern Ireland’s political parties signed the historic Belfast Agreement, ending almost thirty years of conflict. Yet, despite the overwhelming vote for peace by the people in May, violence has continued in an attempt to undermine the new political arrangements. There is a widespread public belief that physically removing weapons will end violence permanently. It is thus not surprising that the issue of the decommissioning of paramilitary arms is once again at the top of the political agenda.
Kirsten Schulze is Lecturer in the Department of International History at the London School of Economics, where she is working on conflict resolution in Northern Ireland and the Middle East.
The European Union is an open membership organisation; any country in Europe can join—provided it meets the membership standards. Post-Communist countries are keen to join, for doing so is integral to the ‘return to Europe’. But do the ten post-communist countries seeking membership meet the standards of the Union, that is, are they committed to democracy, a market economy and the rule of law?
Richard Rose is Director of the Centre for the Study of Public Policy, University of Strathclyde, Glasgow and international scientific advisor of the Paul Lazarsfeld Society, Vienna.
Across the Islamic world the criticism of President Bill Clinton for launching cruise missile attacks against sites in Afghanistan and Sudan has focused on the idea of honour. In cultures where honour directs behaviour in family, community and religion, the President is seen as a man without honour.
Professor Akbar Ahmed is a Fellow of Selwyn College, Cambridge University, and author of Jinnah, Pakistan and Islamic Identity: The Search for Saladin, Routledge, 1997.
The roots of Russia’s crisis run deep; they are embedded in the Soviet past. But the current emergency was precipitated by, first, the letter from the financier George Soros to The Financial Times on 13 August in which he advocated the setting up of a currency board in Russia and a limited devaluation of the rouble, and, second, the not unconnected dismissal of Russia’s prime minister, Sergei Kiriyenko, by President Boris Yeltsin ten days later. Since then, Russia has been in chaos.
Peter Frank is Professor of Russian Politics at the University of Essex
Russia is in systemic crisis, perhaps even close to collapse. The Moscow malaise has underlined the importance of the regions to the continued viability of the Russian Federation. Russia’s deep south crackles like tinder-wood, sparks in Chechnya and Dagestan threaten to set the North Caucasus aflame once again. Sweeping east across the Urals into the heartland of Siberia, General Lebed, newly appointed Governor of Krasnoyarsk Territory, marshals his forces for a renewed bid for the presidency. Does Russia face a de facto disintegration of the Federation, the creation of a ‘commonwealth’ of states within Russian territory?
Dr Graeme Herd is Deputy Director of the Scottish Centre for International Security, University of Aberdeen.
Americans may not be exceptional in their dislike for politicians, but on the Richter scale of contempt they certainly score very high. Yet in this nation of political sceptics—where over half the adult population can’t even be bothered to vote—there is an extraordinary reverence for the symbols of nationhood: the Founding Fathers, the Constitution, the flag and of course the office of the President.
Professor Michael Cox of the Department of International Politics, The University of Wales, Aberystwyth is Editor of the Review of International Studies and a Research Associate at Chatham House.
International terrorists bombed the US embassies in Nairobi and Dar es Salaam in August causing over 5,000 casualties including more than 260 deaths. Most were local citizens. The US responded with a barrage of cruise missiles at the suspected instigator’s headquarters and a plant alleged to be his chemical weapons facility. In the same week domestic Irish terrorists exploded a car bomb in a crowded street in Omagh, 17 Catholics and 11 Protestants died. All were innocent passers-by. Soon afterwards the British Prime Minister, Tony Blair, said that he would not authorise the assassination of the perpetrators, implying that they were known. These contrasting reactions illustrate the inconsistency and immaturity of the liberal democratic response to terrorism.
Dr Omar Malik is a former British Airways Captain and Chairman of the British Airline Pilots Association Security Committee. He carried out research on terrorist attacks on aviation at the University of St Andrews.