|
|
|
|
November 1999
For much of its fifty-two year history Pakistan has lurched between ineffectual civilian governments and military rule. Half its independent existence has been spent under direct or indirect military control. Political instability has been endemic. Pakistan’s quest for a stable and viable political order has proved frustratingly elusive.
Dr Maleeha Lodhi, Editor of The News, Pakistan’s leading English daily paper, was Ambassador to the US from 1994 to 1997 under the government of Benazir Bhutto and the caretaker administration of President Leghari.
The decision by the United States Senate on 13 October not to ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty has tremendous implications for international peace and security, as well as for the role of the United States in world affairs. The treaty was widely recognised as fundamental—alongside the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty—in the series of treaties, rules and regulations that limit nuclear proliferation. Its non-ratification might have disastrous consequences for Washington’s leadership in this crucial area.
The negotiations leading to the conclusion of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) in 1996 were long, difficult and complex. Preventing the testing of new nuclear weapons, and developing a comprehensive seismological system to monitor compliance, was a long-term goal of nations and the myriad of international organisations and individuals committed to stopping the vertical and horizontal proliferation of such weapons.
Dr Paulo Wrobel is a Research Fellow of Chatham House responsible for its Brazil and Latin America programme.
Thirty years ago this month, Britain launched Skynet 1A, the first military communications satellite in geostationary earth orbit. Since then, the militarisation of space has grown to the point where it is virtually inconceivable for any major power to exclude space-based resources from its overall military or strategic planning. But if the past thirty years have seen acceptance of the military use of space, the next thirty will see a much more dramatic development—the weaponisation of space.
There is virtually no doubt that the whole question of the relationship between the military and space is about to take on new importance. If the philosophical debate of the 1960-80s was over the militarisation of space, then its successor in the 21st century will be the weaponisation of space.
It is totally naive to think of space as entirely peaceful and non-military. We have already seen the deployment of specifically military satellites, whether for communication and navigation, or reconnaissance and surveillance. Consideration is now given, not to the simple use of space for military purposes, but to the notion of space power. This is thought of in the same way as previous generations contemplated and developed sea or air power.
Alasdair McLean is Director of the Space Policy Research Unit at the University of Aberdeen.
In December, the Pope plans to visit the ruined city of Ur of the Chaldees, the birthplace of Abraham, a figure revered by three great faiths. Even by John Paul’s standards this pilgrimage is fraught with diplomatic perils. Iraq’s status as an international pariah means that even getting into the country will pose problems because of the UN embargo on air travel. Ur is also located in the Southern No Fly Zone, something Iraq’s Deputy Prime Minister, Tariq Aziz, was quick to seize on when he demanded that the US and Britain stop military operations during the pilgrimage.Opponents of the regime have asked the Pope to avoid making the journey whilst Saddam Hussein remains in power. The problems do not end here as the US and Israel continue their diplomatic pressure to stop the pilgrimage. Washington is acutely conscious of fierce criticism by the Catholic church of the US-led sanctions and their terrible cost in innocent life.
The visit to Iraq offers some intriguing possibilities: will the Pope and Saddam Hussein meet? And might the Holy See attempt to broker some kind of a deal between the warring parties? Already there are high expectations of what John Paul might achieve, as Archbishop Djibrael Kassab of Basra made clear when he said that Iraqis ‘hope if the Pope comes to Iraq, sanctions will be ended’.
David Ryall is preparing a monograph on the Catholic church’s role in world politics. He previously taught politics at the University of Wales, Swansea.
In a surprise result, Abdurrahman Wahid, who founded the country’s largest Muslim party, was elected Indonesia’s President on 20 October. He faces a daunting task. The economy, in particular, is in a delicate state with large debts and endemic corruption. For many the agenda is simple: democratise, decentralise and increase accountability.
In July, there was an air of cautious optimism that the economy might be on the path to sustainable recovery. Indonesia had achieved positive growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the first half year, and inflation was under control. In fact, the consumer price index was falling.
Although household incomes had dropped because of the crisis, by early 1999 it was clear that some of the very alarmist figures in circulation late last year were incorrect. While poverty and unemployment had certainly increased, the extent of the increase was not as great as many had feared. The rupiah had recovered and in late July was trading at around 6,800 to the dollar.
Dr Anne Booth of the School of Oriental and African Studies, London University, is an Associate Fellow of the Asia programme at Chatham House. She has just returned from a study tour in Indonesia.
Is it possible to imagine Japan alone and isolated in a dangerously unstable Asia Pacific? Growing democracy in Taiwan and aspirations towards independence on the island might help erode the basis for many years of regional security through cooperation between Japan and the United States. China is suspicious and waiting to exploit variations of view.
The Taiwan Strait Crisis—the face-off between Chinese and US forces near Taiwan in March 1996—shattered the peaceful hibernation of Asian nations. The crisis demonstrated that post-Cold War turbulence could happen in Asia, and if it did, it might damage not only the economy but also the political stability of the region.
The crisis also showed how the policies of Japan and the United States toward Taiwan could differ and how they were likely to diverge further. It suggested that such divergence, if unfettered, would seriously erode the foundations of the US-Japan Security Treaty and jeopardise the security of Taiwan, as well as the Asia Pacific region and, eventually, Japan.
Yoshifumi Nakai is a researcher at the Institute of Developing Economies (JETTRO) in Tokyo. An earlier version of this paper was presented at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies and at the Asia/Pacific Research Centre Stanford University.
Australia is involved in its largest international military mission since the Vietnam war. The intervention in East Timor comes as Australians are called on to decide how they want their nation to be seen internationally. Should they end the historic link with the British crown and opt instead for an appointed president?
On 6 November, Australian voters, in a compulsory referendum, will have to give their views on whether: ‘To alter the Constitution to establish the Commonwealth of Australia as a republic with the Queen and Governor-General being replaced by a President appointed by a two-thirds majority of the members of the Commonwealth Parliament.’ There will be another vote on a change to the preamble to the Constitution; this is quite separate from the republic question and the two issues do not affect each other.
Keith Suter is Director of Studies of the International Law Association (Australian Branch).
Can companies become better world citizens while competing as financial markets demand? Or will this only lead to greater disillusionment with big business? Now is the moment for corporate giants to move beyond the market that created them.
Is it any surprise that the pressure on companies to act more responsibly—to become ‘good corporate citizens’—has grown, as the competitiveness of markets has increased? Maybe not. These pressures arise precisely because people are disturbed by the destructiveness of over liberal, market behaviour. The great irony, however, is that most corporate citizenship initiatives are now being turned into opportunities to further economic competitiveness.
Nick Mayhew is Director of Oikos, a non-profit organisation based in London, devoted to challenging and helping senior decision-makers move beyond the market.
On 30 November, representatives from 134 members of the World Trade Organization (WTO) will meet in Seattle to try and reach agreement on the launch of a new round of multilateral trade negotiations. As at the last WTO Ministerial meeting in Geneva in May 1998, there are likely to be demonstrations by some non-governmental organisations, which fear new negotiations will jeopardise their goals of protecting
the environment, consumer or animal rights.
If a new World Trade Organization (WTO) round is launched in Seattle it will certainly produce considerable debate and controversy. In this sense, the millennium round, if this is what it is called, will be very different from previous trade rounds, which seldom provoked much public debate. This change reflects the transformation that has taken place in trade policy over the past decade.
Steve Woolcock is a lecturer in International Relations at the London School of Economics.
The Commonwealth is about to meet for the last time this century. Despite military rule in Pakistan, which has been suspended from the organisation, it is encouraged that two of its members—Nigeria and Sierra Leone—now have civilian governments. But how can the democratisation project be carried into the new millennium and who will be elected to lead it?
South Africa was welcomed back into the commonwealth at the Auckland summit in 1995. It is fitting, therefore, that the country whose government was the principal target of the organisation’s coercive diplomacy during the apartheid era, should itself host the last heads of government meeting of the century in Durban in mid November. All the more so, as South Africa symbolises the possibility of optimism, despite the gathering storm clouds over so much of the post Cold-War political landscape.
However severe its problems, the country has maintained its multiracial democracy through a second general election, and its new President, Thabo Mbeki, can be relied on to use the occasion of the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM)—as the host invariably does—to play to his domestic and regional audience.
Professor James Mayall is Director of the Centre of International Studies at Cambridge University. He was formerly a member of the Council of Chatham House.