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The World Today
May, 1998
On May 22 voters in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland will decide whether to accept the multi-party agreement on the future of their island. The new proposals offer democratic bodies to end the bloody dispute. This 'new beginning' draws heavily on earlier beginnings to deal with the problem of Northern Ireland.
Robert Kee is a journalist and writer and the author of The Green Flag (Penguin) and Ireland: A History (Little Brown).
The operations by Serbian security forces in Kosovo were ostensibly aimed at regaining control of territory in the western Drenica region from Albanian guerrillas of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA). For President Slobodan Milosevic, however, the new crisis also offered a convenient opportunity to consolidate his increasingly fragile political position within Serbia; to do so he was ready to make dangerous new alliances with the most radical and extreme elements on the Serbian political scene.
Robert Thomas is researching the post-communist political life of Serbia at the London School of Slavonic and East European Studies. His book, Between Authoritarianism and Pluralism -- the Politics of Serbia in the 1990s, is to be published by Hurst in the autumn.
Despite the agreement on a new international force to continue beyond June the peacekeeping work of SFOR, an external military presence will be necessary in Bosnia for many years to come, but we need to understand what the force is there for. Looking up to fifteen years ahead, a more creative and proactive approach is required to ensure progress and eventual success. International military engagement should gradually be transformed from external supervision to partnership.
James Gow is a Reader in War Studies at King's College London, and the author of Triumph of the Lack of Will: International Diplomacy and the Yugoslav War (Hurst and Co, London, 1997).
Can the Euro fail? Future historians will measure the concept of the common European currency not by its economic success or failure but in terms of the political consequences. The latter will decide the economic destiny of the Euro, not the other way around.
Michael Stürmer, former Director of the Research Institute for International Affairs (Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik) at Ebenhausen, now is Professor of Modern History at Friedrich Alexander-Universität Erlangen, Nuremberg.
This is the second anniversary of Benjamin Netanyahu's coming to power in Israel. His administration has been dogged by scandal, resignations of key ministers and a perception that the government was about to fall at any time. However, Netanyahu is no ordinary politician and his near Houdini powers of survival appear to have helped shore up a weak position and ensure that he will see out his first term. Moreover, re-election now appears a strong possibility, taking his period of office well into the next century. Such a scenario would ensure that his administration controls the final outcome of the peace process.
Dr Neill Lochery lectures in the Department of Hebrew and Jewish Studies at University College London, and is the author of The Israeli Labour Party: In the Shadow of the Likud (Ithaca Press, 1997).
Despite the removal from power of the Khmer Rouge by Vietnamese troops in 1979, former members of the organisation still have a profound influence on political life in Cambodia. Elections planned for July are likely to prolong divisions rather than heal the trauma begun by Pol Pot in 'Year Zero'.
Dr David Roberts is a Senior Lecturer in the Department of Defence Studies, King's College, London.
All assumptions about how the international community should relate to countries in crisis are currently being tested, some to breaking point, in Afghanistan. At the time of writing, the UN is assembling a team of negotiators to meet the Taliban to determine whether a minimum basis can be found on which international assistance to the country can continue. If these negotiations fail, the prospect is the suspension of all but essential life saving aid. This could have dire consequences for the population which has become increasingly reliant upon the western world's willingness to fund rehabilitation and basic social services.
Michael Keating is Senior Advisor to the UN office for the Coordination of Humanitarian and Development Activities in Afghanistan.
Apart from the Middle East, South Asia is the world's most daunting challenge to conflict resolution and the promotion of peace. Nearly a fifth of humanity lives on the Subcontinent, and the peace dividend could be enormous, as is the mounting cost of the absence of peace. The threat to international peace and security is all the more ominous since both Pakistan and India are nuclear-capable states, and Pakistan has just countered India's missiles by successfully testing a medium range one of its own.
Dr Maleeha Lodhi, Editor of The News, Pakistan's leading English daily paper, was Ambassador to the US (1994-1997).
Japanese products have reached every country on earth; the possibility of a further economic crisis in Tokyo is enough to raise fears of a global recession. But despite high profile visits, like that of the Japanese Emperor to Britain -- a once in a lifetime occasion -- few are aware of, or exploit, Japan's global role as an aid donor.
Phillida Purvis is Deputy Director of the Daiwa Anglo-Japanese Foundation in London.