World Policy Journal

Volume XIV, No 3, Fall 1997

Between Chaos and Order

James Chace

It is axiomatic that no power can remain predominant forever. Empires crumble, and what replaces them is rarely another empire, at least not in the short term. A more likely reconfiguration is a balance of power, as the old empire reluctantly gives way. Think of Europe after Waterloo when Napoleon's empire collapsed and the victors at the Congress of Vienna were determined to maintain a balance of power, which lasted roughly 75 years until the struggle between the fading British Empire and a rising Germany brought on the First World War.

At the end the twentieth century, America has clearly emerged as the predominant world power. The Soviet Union, once a formidable military challenger, is dead and gone. The European Union is neither an economic nor a military adversary. China is on the rise, and may someday contend with America for power in the Western Pacific—but not in the near term. Despite its economic prowess, Japan, because of geography alone, will remain a vulnerable state.

But if there is an American empire, it is a benevolent one. It is an informal empire, to be sure, not a classical empire that rules territories and populations. Nonetheless, the trappings of empire— military bases worldwide, a global navy, absolute preponderance in both nuclear and conventional weaponry—are evident. Moreover, the so-called American economic model of deregulated markets and free trade is seen by many nations in both the developed and less developed world as the key to job creation, even if this means less care for the needy.

The perception of American power will doubtless lead to the historic tendency of other great powers to balance against the United States. The question for the future is more likely to be will the United States recognize the likelihood of emerging regional balances of power and try to shape those balances, or will it insist on having its own way—will it try, in the words of the famous Pentagon planning document of 1992, to "discourage the advanced industrial nations from challenging our leadership or even aspiring to a larger regional or global role"? Will Germany and China accept this? Is it possible that even Japan and China will bury their long-standing animosity and band together against American power and purpose? Will a French and German-led Europe resist and finally repel American interests on the continent?

America has soon got to decide the direction it wishes to take. At this writing, the American colossus bestrides a world in which atavistic forces are struggling at the margins against the integrating push of international institutions or the reassertion of imperial dominance.

These forces are active in the still unsettled conflict in the Balkans and on the periphery of the former Soviet Union. They are tearing apart the delicate mosaic of African nations; they are wreaking havoc in the Middle East. The shape of things to come is less likely to be war between great powers than conflict among peoples struggling for identity and well-being.Is it not time to abandon the notion that other great powers in Europe and East Asia need "adult supervision," as Benjamin Schwarz suggests elsewhere in this issue? Defense Secretary William Cohen said on national television on July 9 that "the enemy is instability." Does that mean that America alone stands between chaos and order? If so, is that the justification for American military prowess? Or should America seek a concert of great powers and work toward a cooperative economic and security system, abandoning the notion of an American model for all? Or are American responsibilities largely to construct a more equitable and just society at home at a time when the social cohesion of the nation is under ever greater strain?

These are some of the large questions that have to be debated in this and other journals as we approach the millennium. As we do so, however, it is always well to keep in mind Jefferson's admonition for the United States: "For my part, I wish that all nations may recover and retain their independence; that those that are overthrown may not advance beyond safe measures of power, that a salutary balance may be maintained among nations, and that our peace, commerce and friendship may be sought and cultivated by all."

James Chace is Editor of the World Policy Journal.