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CIAO DATE: 04/07
Winter 2006-07: Volume 30, Number 1
Provocations
Dialogue with Adversaries
(PDF, 17 pages, 126 KB)
Arlen Specter with Christopher Bradish
The senior Republican senator from Pennsylvania, based on his experience over more than 25 years and travel to nearly 100 countries, advocates establishing dialogue today with those countries considered U.S. enemies, including Iran, North Korea, Syria, Cuba, and Venezuela.
Between Victory and Defeat: Israel after the War with Hizballah
(PDF, 17 pages, 159 KB)
Dov Waxman
Israel now stands at a crossroads. The lessons it draws from its recent war with Hizballah will shape future Israeli thinking and its relations with the Palestinians as well as the rest of the Middle East. It is imperative that it learns the right ones.
The Syrian Opposition
(PDF, 24 pages, 271 KB)
Joshua Landis and Joe Pace
Although the Syrian opposition is still no match for the government in Damascus, it has made a number of advances over the last two years. Where did the opposition come from? What should Washington do now?
Poppies for Peace: Reforming Afghanistan's Opium Industry
(PDF, 13 pages, 110 KB)
Peter van Ham and Jorrit Kamminga
Afghanistan, which could be slipping back into chaos, must turn the tables on the opium crisis. The international community should establish a pilot project and investigate a licensing scheme to legalize the production of medicines such as morphine and codeine from poppy crops to help it escape.
The Siloviki in Putin's Russia: Who They Are and What They Want
(PDF, 10 pages, 138 KB)
Ian Bremmer and Samuel Charap
Little is known about the siloviki, commonly but misleadingly described as a group of current and former intelligence officers from Putin's hometown of St. Petersburg. Yet, its members, interests, relationships, and influence are helping shape Russia as its 2008 presidential elections approach.
Last Alliance Standing? NATO after 9/11
(PDF, 14 pages, 159 KB)
John R. Schmidt
The senior U.S. State Department intelligence analyst for Europe argues that, during and after the NATO leaders meeting in Riga in November, how they and their successors manage the frictions generated by NATO-EU competition will determine the future of the transatlantic alliance.
A Weakened EU's Prospects for Global Leadership
(PDF, 9 pages, 91 KB)
Franco Algieri
After France and the Netherlands rejected the EU Constitution, the European integration project has reached a crucial stage. Even though the EU is still a world champion in trade policy and development aid, it is in danger of becoming an irrelevant power.
Inside Iran
A Win-Win U.S. Strategy for Dealing with Iran
(PDF, 18 pages, 209 KB)
Michael McFaul, Abbas Milani, and Larry Diamond
Michael McFaul, Abbas Milani, and Larry Diamond The United States needs a bold and fundamentally different strategy, proposed here, which would engage the Iranian regime and people on two tracks, allowing U.S. diplomats to pursue arms control and democratization at the same time.
The Hizballah-Iran Connection: Model for Sunni Resistance
(PDF, 12 pages, 158 KB)
Graham E. Fuller
Hizballah's growing power reflects a broad intensification of resistance to the status quo throughout the Middle East. Although invoking a "Shi'ite axis" with Iran and others may be a good political scare tactic, the phenomenon really signifies political change that is broader than sectarianism.
How Relevant Is the Iranian Street?
(PDF, 12 pages, 161 KB)
Karim Sadjadpour
How, if at all, do the demands of the Iranian people factor into Tehran's foreign policy? Evidence suggests that popular discontent in Iran is deep seated and widespread, based on a desire for political, economic, and social reform rather than a change in foreign policy. Will they start agitating for foreign policy input?
Understanding Iran's New Authoritarianism
(PDF, 17 pages, 167 KB)
Elliot Hen-Tov
Iran is undergoing a gradual regime change today, but not toward democratization. Strengthened by the surprising stability of its political economy, a new generation in Tehran is beginning to shift from the existing clerical theocracy toward a more conventional authoritarian regime.
Iran's Ethnic Tinderbox
(PDF, 10 pages, 149 KB)
John R. Bradley
Only roughly one-half of Iran's people are ethnic Persians. Fueled by long-standing economic and cultural grievances against Tehran, unrest among ethnic minorities in places such as Khuzestan and Baluchistan is increasing. Does this internal strife threaten Tehran's control of its land and population?
Washington Watch
The New Tribalism: Cliques and the Making of U.S. Foreign Policy
(PDF, 11 pages, 108 KB)
Kurt M. Campbell and Derek Chollet
Inside the respective traditional intellectual communities and political apparatuses of the Republicans and the Democrats are small groupings that play an increasingly important role in the overall formulation and execution of U.S. foreign policy.