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CIAO DATE: 07/06
Summer 2006: Volume 29, Number 3
Provocations
Robert Jervis explains why the world's most powerful country wants to change the international system ... plus reassessing democracy promotion and a look at Russia’s G-8 agenda
The Remaking of a Unipolar World (PDF)
Robert Jervis
No state should have a greater stake in preserving the international system than its hegemon. Yet, the United States is behaving more like a revolutionary state than a status quo power. Why? The answer transcends both September 11 and President Bush himself.
Advancing the Freedom Agenda: Time for a Recalibration? (PDF)
Jennifer Windsor
Hamas’s recent victory in the Palestinian elections and renewed sectarian violence in Iraq have raised questions about the future of democracy promotion among even its most ardent supporters. Yet, although the means by which democracy is promoted should be constantly revisited, the goal should be preserved.
The G-8 Strelna Summit and Russia’s National Power (PDF)
Vladimir A. Orlov and Miriam Fugfugosh
The G-8 summit offers an opportunity for Russia to emphasize its contemporary sources of power to the world: energy supply, nuclear strength, and intellectual capital. Bolstered by these factors, Russia today is more confident of its role in the international community and the G-8.
Is European Enlargement Dead?
A year after the French and Dutch rejections of the EU constitution, can Europe stabilize its periphery, particularly Turkey, the Balkans, and Ukraine, without the carrot of enlargement?
The Death of Enlargement (PDF)
Gideon Rachman
The potential death of the EU enlargement process is a huge blow to the goals of spreading prosperity and democracy in Europe. Nevertheless, the prospect of membership has still not completely lost its potency to spur reform. The risk is that all parties involved might suffer a bitter disillusionment in the end.
Turkey on the Brink (PDF)
Philip Gordon and Omer Taspinar
It is time to revisit the conventional wisdom that Turkey has no strategic options other than the West. The problem today is not Islamization, but a growing nationalist frustration with the United States and Europe. All the ingredients for a Turkish nationalist backlash are in place.
Brussels: Next Capital of the Balkans? (PDF)
James C. O’Brien
In three or four years, European leaders will face a choice: live up to their own rhetoric in favor of enlargement to the western Balkans or bow to public expectations. Both the outcome and even the tone of the debate could have repercussions with criminal and security risks for Europe.
Is Ukraine Part of Europe’s Future? (PDF)
Taras Kuzio
Brussels cannot indefinitely insist that Kiev pursue reforms to prove its commitment to European values without an offer of future EU membership. Thus far, only NATO has offered Ukraine a safe haven in the West, but the EU will only be able to put off a decision until 2008.
Uzbekistan: Where Democracy and Strategic Interests Collide
A year after Andijon, a look at the other region of the world where democracy promotion and strategic interests have arguably collided most vividly
Fear of Democracy or Revolution: The Reaction to Andijon (PDF)
Fiona Hill and Kevin Jones
In the wake of a May 2005 prison break, the subsequent protests, and a government crackdown in the city of Andijon, are there similar events on Uzbekistan’s horizon with the potential to undermine the government? More broadly, is there any prospect for a democratic opening or reform?
Uzbekistan’s State-Building Fatigue (PDF)
Vitaly Naumkin
Authoritarianism is not a whim in Uzbekistan, but the integral feature of its traditional political culture—a tribal, clan-based society with no national civil society to speak of. Uzbek society is not fatally doomed to live under these traditions, but a democracy cannot be created overnight.
The U.S. Interests and Role in Central Asia after K2 (PDF)
Eugene Rumer
Central Asia is remote, poor, and has few historical or cultural ties to the United States. Yet, the region’s importance to Washington exceeds its value as a stepping stone to Afghanistan and a neighbor of both China and Russia.
Averting a New Great Game in Central Asia (PDF)
Richard Weitz
Concerns about a renewed great game are exaggerated. The vital national interests of the most important external countries are not at stake, but competitive pressures, unless restrained, do risk impeding opportunities for cooperation among them.