CIAO DATE: 09/05

The Washington Quarterly

Summer 2005, Volume 28, Number 3

Provocations

A look at global hot spots in Taiwan, Iran, and North Korea.

• The New Strategic Triangle: U.S. and European Reactions to China's Rise (PDF, 20 pages, 97.8 KB)
  David Shambaugh

  Although they share similar views on many aspects of China's place in the international community, the U.S. and Europe differ over their perceptions of global order, China's rise, and the resources devoted to analyzing China. Greater dialogue and coordination among all three are overdue.

• A Greater Chinese Union (PDF, 14 pages, 81.0 KB)
  Linda Jakobson

  A formula for political union across the Taiwan Strait may surprisingly be feasible: a Greater Chinese Union, an extremely loose form of political integration in which Taiwan would be demilitarized but democratic, safeguarded by international guarantees, and enjoy substantially more international space.

• U.S. Foreign Policy and the Future of Democracy in Iran (PDF, 16 pages, 85.2 KB)
  Abbas Milani

  The key to solving Iran's nuclear problem is the fate of the country's democratic movement. To assist this movement, a successful U.S. strategy must include these seven pillars and have the patience for the Tehran regime to collapse under its own inconsistencies.

• The Two South Koreas: A House Divided (PDF, 16 pages, 90.1 KB)
  Hahm Chaibong

  South Korea today is bitterly divided between conservatives and the ruling coalition of progressives, who adhere to a leftist-nationalist ideology that harbors an increasingly virulent form of anti-Americanism while coddling North Korea's regime. What is its potential future?

• North Korea's New Cash Crop (PDF, 12 pages, 77.6 KB)
  Andrew J. Coe

  If Pyongyang can no longer use its nuclear program to extort aid from the international community, rising economic pressures on the Kim Jong-il regime may force it to sell its nuclear resources to one or more of a number of dangerous customers.

  Will Syria Spring, Fall, or Fester?

  Syria is at a crossroads. Former U.S. Special Middle East Coordinator Dennis Ross leads an insider's look at whether Bashar al-Assad supports terrorism or seeks integration and what the United States should do next.

• U.S. Policy toward a Weak Assad (PDF, 12 pages, 73.8 KB)
  Dennis Ross

  The former U.S. Special Middle East Coordinator advises that Washington should not launch a major new policy initiative toward Damascus now, but should focus on Lebanon and engage Syria's neighbors to deal with the possible consequences of Syrian instability.

• Confronting Syrian-Backed Terrorism (PDF, 16 pages, 89.6 KB)
  Daniel Byman

  Over the years, Syria has aided a daunting array of terrorist groups, but it seldom has been an ardent supporter. Continued pressure through U.S. leadership and multilateral, particularly Arab, action can help push the Syrian regime in the right direction.

• Bashar Al-Assad: In or Out of the New World Order? (PDF, 18 pages, 94.3 KB)
  Eyal Zisser

  Syria's failures to fully cooperate against terrorism and cope with either the results of the war in Iraq or recent events in Lebanon are liable to force Bashar al-Assad's regime to make painful domestic and foreign policy decisions that it has delayed for years.

  Reassessing Deterrence

  A former Bush administration Pentagon official leads an assessment of deterrence by explaining the administration's Nuclear Posture Review

• The Nuclear Posture Review: Setting the Record Straight (PDF, 18 pages, 92.9 KB)
  Keith B. Payne

  A former Bush administration Pentagon official clears the air about the 2001 Nuclear Posture Review, which set in motion far-reaching changes designed to align U.S. strategic policy with the different realities and threats of the contemporary security environment.

• Deterring a Nuclear Iran (PDF, 16 pages, 87.8 KB)
  Jason Zaborski

  What if Iraq had nuclear weapons when it invaded Kuwait and dared the world to respond? The U.S. needs to consider sharing missile defenses and, regrettably, developing new capabilities to enhance deterrence against future potential adversaries who possess nuclear weapons.

• Extended Deterrence: The U.S. Credibility Gap in the Middle East (PDF, 18 pages, 97.4 KB)
  Kathleen J. McInnis

  Iranian nuclear proliferation could prove uniquely dangerous because of the potential to ignite regional proliferation in Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and others. Unlike in Asia, the U.S. has few good options for reassuring allies in the Middle East.

• Deterring Terrorists: Thoughts on a Framework (PDF, 14 pages, 82.3 KB)
  Daniel Whiteneck

  Rather than abandoning deterrence as ineffective against terrorists, it can be redefined to deter moral, spiritual, educational, recruiting, and financial support by states or as a limited war against societal elements that provide assistance to WMD terrorist operations.