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CIAO DATE: 07/04
Summer 2004, Volume 27, Number 3
Provocations: The Changing Face of Islam
Implications of the Shi'a revival...Europe's Islamic challenge...and Turkey's true model
Regional Implications of Shi'a Revival in Iraq (PDF, 18 pages, 100 KB)
Vali Nasr
The Shi'a-Sunni competition for power is not just the single greatest determinant of stability in post-Saddam Iraq. The sectarian struggle will have the single greatest influence on the future of peace and stability from South Asia to the Levant.
Europe and Islam: Crescent Waxing, Cultures Clashing (PDF, 26 pages, 132 KB)
Timothy M. Savage
If Europe and its Muslim communities fail to reach an accommodation, increased social strife, national retrenchment, and potentially significant civil conflict are likely to overwhelm the vision of a continent that is whole, free, and united.
Turkey's Strategic Model: Myths and Realities (PDF, 14 pages, 80 KB)
Graham E. Fuller
The classic Western image of Turkey as a secular model to all Muslims has been misleading. The good news is that Turkey is in fact now becoming a genuine model, although one of a different form, that finally offers a degree of genuine appeal to the region.
Combating Al Qaeda's Splinters
How radical Islamic terrorism has evolved...and how to keep up
Mishandling Suicide Terrorism (PDF, 24 pages, 120 KB)
Scott Atran
Suicide terrorism is becoming more prominent as well as more frequently motivated by religion. To attract potential recruits away from jihadist martyrdom requires addressing basic grievances, not applying military force. Those root causes and how to address them, however, are woefully misunderstood.
The Post-Madrid Face of Al Qaeda (PDF, 10 pages, 60 KB)
Rohan Gunaratna
The terrorist threat has shifted beyond Al Qaeda as a group to an ideology. In many ways, Al Qaeda has completed its mission of being the vanguard of Islamic movements, having inspired a generation of two dozen existing groups as well as an emerging generation of them.
Counterterrorism after Al Qaeda (PDF, 14 pages, 72 KB)
Paul R. Pillar
The counterterrorism challenges that will follow Al Qaeda - collecting and analyzing intelligence, enlisting foreign support, and sustaining the U.S. commitment while avoiding further damage to relations with the Muslim world - may be even more complex.
China's Evolving Rise
Views on globalization...rising social unrest...and how to modernize trade relations
China Views Globalization: Toward a New Great-Power Politics? (PDF, 20 pages, 104 KB)
Yong Deng and Thomas G. Moore
China's strategic choices increasingly seek to use globalization as a way to make China rich and strong, reduce international fears of its rising material power, and transform great-power politics to a more cooperative form of interstate competition that increases prospects for China's peaceful rise.
China Rethinks Unrest (PDF, 20 pages, 104 KB)
Murray Scot Tanner
New internal data from China's own police indicate that protests are growing in number and increasing in size. The struggle to control unrest will force Beijing's leaders and other countries to face riskier dilemmas than at any time since the 1989 Tiananmen Square demonstrations.
Practical Engagement: Drawing a Fine Line for U.S.-China Trade (PDF, 18 pages, 96 KB)
Adam Segal
Today's economic realities recommend relaxing advanced commercial technologies controls toward China while maintaining an embargo on military items and a small handful of crucial dual-use items - identified here - to help preserve U.S. technological superiority and engage Beijing.
Charles Cook on Washington
This election could look very similar...but to 2000 or 1992?
Political Deja Vu, but Will It Be 2000 or 1992? (PDF, 8 pages, 60 KB)
Charles E. Cook Jr.
Somewhere between 16 and 19 true swing states will be the battleground of the 2004 presidential campaign, with nine being the most hotly contested. Although it is too early to call, and some seem to be redrawing the 2000 political maps, there is also an eerie similarity with the 1992 contest.