CIAO DATE: 04/07

The Washington Quarterly

Autumn 2006: Volume 29, Number 4

Provocations

• Is the Media Being Fair in Iraq? (PDF, 12 Pages, 212 KB)
  Michael O'Hanlon and Nina Kamp

  Michael O'Hanlon is a senior fellow and Nina Kamp is a senior research assistant at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C. They are the coauthors of Brookings' Iraq Index, located at http://www.brookings.edu/iraqindex. O'Hanlon and Kurt Cambpell of CSIS are the coauthors of the forthcoming Hard Power: The New Politics of National Security.

  Using original data to systematically assess individual outlets and the media overall, the authors conclude that broad criticism of the U.S. media is often badly overstated.

• After Zarqawi: The Dilemmas and Future of Al Qaeda in Iraq (PDF, 14 Pages, 173 KB)
  Brian Fishman

  Brian Fishman is an associate in the Combating Terrorism Center at the United States Military Academy at West Point and an instructor in the Department of Social Sciences. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent those of the U.S. Military Academy, the Department of the Army, or any other department or agency of the U.S. government.

  Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's death deprived Al Qaeda in Iraq of its strategic leader. How his successor responds to the network's internal security dilemmas, penetration, and the lingering doctrinal impasse with Al Qaeda proper will determine the organization's future trajectory.

• Bridging the Transatlantic Counterterrorism Gap (PDF, 18 Pages, 178 KB)
  Jeremy Shapiro and Daniel Byman

  Jeremy Shapiro is research director of the Center for the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution. Daniel Byman is director of the Center for Peace and Security Studies and the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service and a nonresident senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. The authors would like to thank Sara Bjerg Moller for her expert research assistance.

  The United States and Europe face different threats from Islamist terrorism, have different perceptions of even their common threats, have different tools for fighting terrorism, and respond differently. An inability to cooperate, however, may result in attacks or economic disruption.

• Iran: Balancing East against West (PDF, 16 Pages, 156 KB)
  Sanam Vakil

  Sanam Vakil is an assistant professor of Middle East studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS).

  Iran is using its carefully cultivated commercial and strategic relations with China, Russia, and India to counterbalance the threat of Western sanctions against its nuclear program. Is today's globalizing economy already diverse enough for this strategy to work?

• An Agenda for Harnessing Globalization (PDF, 14 Pages, 180 KB)
  Ashraf Ghani and Clare Lockhart

  Ashraf Ghani is chancellor of Kabul University and a senior nonresident fellow at the Brookings Institution. Clare Lockhart is a director of the State Effectiveness Program in London.

  Five issues should receive particular attention to sufficiently provide necessary global institutions with the rules, accountabilities, resources, and moral support by states in general and the United States in particular to tackle today's global security challenges.

• West African Integration: A New Development Paradigm? (PDF, 18 Pages, 212 KB)
  Seth Kaplan

  Seth Kaplan is a freelance writer currently working on a book on alternative development strategies for fragile states. The author thanks Daniel Bach, Chester Crocker, Jeffrey Herbst, Princeton Lyman, Kwesi Kwaa Prah, and Peter Takirambudde for their assistance with and comments on this essay.

  Helping long-troubled regions such as West Africa requires nothing less than embracing a new development paradigm. Instead of simply continuing to pump billions annually into the region's many dysfunctional regimes, local leaders and the developed world should focus on regionalism.

Japan's Quest for Normalcy

• U.S.-Japanese Relations after Koizumi: Convergence or Cooling? (PDF, 10 Pages, 138 KB)
  Michael J. Green

  Michael J. Green holds the Japan Chair and is a senior adviser at CSIS, as well as an associate professor of international relations at Georgetown University. He previously served as director for Asian affairs (2001–2003) and special assistant to the president and senior director for Asian affairs at the National Security Council during 2004–2005. He would like to thank Shinjiro Koizumi, Yuko Nakano, Koki Nishimura, and Kiyoto Tsuji for their comments on this manuscript.

  Did the Bush-Koizumi personal connection mask underlying areas of divergence between the United States and Japan? A look at bilateral relations between leaders, Japan's external threat environment, common values, and economic relations gives some insight into the way ahead.

• Japan's Goldilocks Strategy (PDF, 18 Pages, 184 KB)
  Richard J. Samuels

  Richard J. Samuels is the Ford International Professor of Political Science and director of the Center for International Studies at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. In 2005–2006, he was a visiting scholar at the Keizai Koho Center in Tokyo. This essay is derived from his forthcoming book Securing Japan, supported by the Smith Richardson Foundation.

  Which Japanese leader will emerge to help build a consensus among the country's strategic choices: constructing a national identity as a great or middle power, defining its role in regional or global terms, and maintaining relations neither too close to nor too far from both Beijing and Washington?

• Redefining Sino-Japanese Relations after Koizumi (PDF, 10 Pages, 113 KB)
  Yang Bojiang

  Yang Bojiang is a professor and director of the Institute for Japanese Studies at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR) in Beijing.

  The last five years have been a lost half-decade for Sino-Japanese relations. The question now is, will the next Japanese prime minister have a strategy that improves Japan's relations with China and the wider region?

• A Turning Point for Japan's Self-Defense Forces (PDF, 12 Pages, 134 KB)
  Nicholas Szechenyi

  Nicholas Szechenyi is a fellow and assistant director of the Office of the Japan Chair at CSIS. The author would like to thank the participants of a spring 2006 CSIS Japan Chair study group for their contributions to his own thoughts.

  The next Japanese government can continue to articulate a progressive vision for its Self-Defense Forces, remind the Japanese people of the strategic impact of their expanded roles and missions, and potentially provide a turning point in developing a contemporary Japanese security policy.

Charles Cook on Washington

• Will the Republicans Retain Congress in 2006? (PDF, 6 Pages, 94 KB)
  Charles E. Cook Jr.

  Charles E. Cook Jr. writes weekly columns for National Journal and CongressDaily AM, published by the National Journal Group. He is a political analyst for NBC News and editor and publisher of the Cook Political Report, a Washington-based, nonpartisan newsletter analyzing U.S. politics and elections.

  Republicans are worried going into the 2006 midterm election, but the outcome is far from certain. In fact, certain structural barriers may help protect the Republican majorities in both the Senate and the House.