CIAO DATE: 03/05/07

Turkish Policy Quarterly

 

Summer 2006 (Volume 5, Number 2)

 

• U.S. Policy in the Black Sea Region by Ross Wilson

  From the U.S. point of view, NATO is and will remain the premier provider of security for the Euro-Atlantic region, which includes the Black Sea. Far from seeking to charge into the region, the U.S. approach is to work with its Allies and friends, and within the frameworks they find comfortable, to strengthen cooperation and collaboration on security. The U.S. is not seeking to establish a permanent naval presence in the Black Sea, but it is committed to engaging with its allies and friends to enhance security and cooperation throughout the region.

• The Role of the EU in the Resolution of Conflicts in the South Caucasus by Peter Semneby

  The conflicts of the South Caucasus remain frozen and the region itself is thus broken. Based on the confidence all involved parties have in the EU and the increased interest of the EU in the region, there is certainly a role for the EU in the resolution of these conflicts. Though it has limitations, the European Neighborhood Policy is one means for EU influence. Ultimately, the conflicts need to be addressed in a larger framework, which includes a new paradigm of how identities are articulated in the region, based on values. Though the EU can play a role, it is up to the parties to resolve these conflicts.

• BSEC: A Road Map to Relevance by Tedo Japaridze

  This article shares the authors observations about the Black Sea region at large and discusses the current status and future potential of the Organization of Black Sea Economic Cooperation (BSEC). Several arguments are put forth regarding the internal and external failures of BSEC and improvements are recommended. The relationship between BSEC and the EU is analyzed in light of changing regional and global realities. Political issues, it is argued, should also be included in the scope of this Organization. Various purely political issues are the greatest impediment and barrier to BSECs designated role to promote sustainable economic development among its member states.

• Turkey and Russia: Partnership by Exclusion by Suat Kiniklioglu

  Despite a long history of tension and conflict of interests economic and political relations between Turkey and Russia have deepened significantly. This article provides a comprehensive account of the bilateral relationship and argues that the convergence between Russia and Turkey is the result of the two states' shared defensiveness vis--vis the shaping of a new Europe that appears to exclude them and shared apprehension with U.S. policies. The most influential factor in determining the future nature of Turkish-Russian relations is their respective relationships with the West.

• Possible Consequences of a New Geopolitical Game by Gareth Winrow

  Much attention has focused on Turkey emerging as a major energy transport hub as the energy security needs of EU member states have become a pressing issue. However, it will be difficult for Eurasian crude oil and natural gas to reach European markets via Turkey given Russias grip on energy transportation routes, and bearing in mind Moscows interest in preserving its political and economic influence in Central Asia. In the foreseeable future, with regard to the post-Soviet states of the Caspian region, only Azerbaijani and Kazakh crude and Azerbaijani natural gas is likely to be transported to European consumers via Turkey.

• Widening Without Enlarging: The European Neighborhood and the South Caucasus by Andreas Marchetti

  Common definitions of Europe locate the South Caucasus just outside. Although it has only recently been included in the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP), the South Caucasus is of particular interest because of its geographic location and its energy resources. Since the ENP can be understood as a geopolitical policy intended to create a semi-periphery between the EU and its periphery, the policy seems designed to widen the scope of the EU yet at the same time excluding further enlargement. The South Caucasus fits well into this concept, however especially with concrete Georgian membership aspirations the approach needs to be clarified and incentives enhanced in order not to lead to frustration.

• Turkey and Its Balkan Neighbors by Verena Knaus

  Enlargement has been the most successful policy instrument of the European Union. The current debate on enlargement fatigue, this paper argues, carries high political costs and casts doubts on Europe's credibility as a foreign policy actor. It also undermines the efforts of reformers in applicant countries. The paper explores the myths surrounding enlargement fatigue, and calls on Turkey not to ignore its Balkan neighbors. Turkey and its Balkans neighbours share more than a common history. There are many concrete lessons that can be learned and there are also many shared interests that will require joint initiatives across the region.

• A New Strategic Outlook for Turkey by Borut Grgic

  Based on original findings from qualitative interviews with university students in four Turkish cities, this article explains the connection between civil society and politics in Turkey as it pertains to university students. In particular, it focuses on reasons for and obstacles to involvement in civil society and how that relates to student perceptions regarding their role in Turkeys future. The article concludes with a section about students views on the EU process.

• The Black Sea: New Arena for Global Competition by Sinan Ogan

  The provisions of the Montreux Convention have rendered a unique situation in the Black Sea region wherein access of war vessels of countries which do not have a coast in the Black Sea are very restricted. Today the Black Sea region has become a center of global competition for reasons such as being located at the crossroads of energy transportation routes. This article overviews the policies of both the Black Sea countries and global powers towards the region, highlighting the prevalent problems.

• Towards a New Turkey-NATO Partnership by Richard Weitz

  This article discusses the altered strategic environment facing Turkey and its NATO allies since the Cold War. It reviews these countries' recent relationship with Russia and Central Asian states and recommends policies that could promote Turkey's transformation from strategic barrier to bridge in Eurasia.

• The Black Sea as an Energy Transit Corridor by Aydin z

  Due to the market condition of energy resources, we are experiencing heightened competition globally. The reserves of the Caspian region and Russia render the Black Sea an important pasageway. However shipment of oil through the straits with tankers has proven dangerous and projects to bypass them are ongoing. On the other hand additional potential projects are still evolving. At this particular juncture in time, Russia is a critical player in the picture and competition between Russia and the U.S. regarding how future transportation routes will take shape continues.

• Solving South Caucasian Conflicts and Building Regional Security by Stepan Grigoryan

  The demise of the USSR in 1991 created a power vacuum in the Soviet space that lingers to this day. This development acted as a catalyst in igniting the conflicts in and around the region. Security concerns of the independent states have steadily increased over the past decade and a half and a search for alternative centers for cooperation and security has come about. Russia's incapacity to offer a sound and reliable cooperation and security system coupled with an increased interest of European and Euro-Atlantic forces in the region has opened the way for a higher level of integration of these states with the West. The result of the tug of war between Russia and the West over the region remains open.

• Turkey's New Geopolitical Agenda by Joshua W. Walker

  Turkey's multilateral and independent policies vis--vis its neighbors represent the key component to a new strategy for dealing with its own internal and external regional change. The deepening of relations through greater economic cooperation, regional assistance, and promotion of democratic institutions throughout the Middle East, Black Sea, and in the Turkic republics of Central Asia demonstrate a newfound confidence in Turkey's role in the world as a versatile multiregional actor. No longer confined to being simply a Western geo-strategic "bridge" or "barrier," Turkey represents an exemplary model of a Muslim-majority, secular, and democratic nation within this new geopolitical environment.