CIAO DATE: 06/06

Turkish Policy Quarterly

 

Winter 2005 (Volume 4, Number 4)

 

• THE SOLUTIONS OF THE CYPRUS PROBLEM: THE KEY TO TURKEY'S RELATIONS WITH THE EU
  George Vasiliou

  The lack of trust of Turkey is the main obstacle to both the solution of the Cyprus Problem and Turkey's eventual accession to the EU. The author proposes “good will” steps Turkey can take in order to diffuse the worries, which, whether justified or not, mortgage Turkey's future.

• THE PAST AS A PRISON, THE PAST AS A DIFFERENT FUTURE
  Gerard J. Libaridian

  The essay explores some of the socio-political realities underlying one of the most difficult historiographic problems of the twentieth century, the opposing views on the treatment of Armenians in the waning years of the Ottoman Empire. The author considers the politics of Genocide recognition and denial to entrenched social and political structures, tracing it to a battle of identities. The author argues that identities are dynamic phenomena; pointing to recent changes in the Turkish and Armenian environments and to a new level of a dialogue, he finds reason to hope that Turkish-Armenian relations may still improve.

• OFF AUTOPILOT: THE FUTURE OF TURKISH-US RELATIONS
  Ian O. Lesser

  To the extent that the U.S. pursues a more active policy aimed at transforming societies and compelling changes in behavior in regions adjacent to Turkey, Ankara will be presented with continuing and difficult choices. Changes in the foreign policy debate on both sides, against the backdrop of turmoil in Iraq, make clear that the bilateral relationship can no longer be left on autopilot. Failure to explore a new approach could spell further deterioration in the outlook for cooperation.

• THE ARMENIAN CAUSE IN AMERICA, TODAY
  Günay Evinch

  While meager Turkish American NGO assets are dedicated to cultural events and providing education on a wide range of political issues, approximately $40 million in Armenian American NGO assets are primarily dedicated to what is referred to in Armenian as Hai Tahd, ‘The Armenian Cause'. Hai Tahd includes three policy objectives: Recognition that the 1885-1919 Armenian tragedy constitute genocide; Reparations from Turkey; and, Restitution of the eastern provinces of Turkey to Armenia. This paper examines the Armenian American strategy and the response of Turkish American via the Assembly of Turkish American Associations (ATAA).

• BREAKING THE STALEMATE: TURKISH-ARMENIAN RELATIONS IN THE 21^st CENTURY
  Rachel Goshgarian

  The relationship between Armenia and Turkey has remained stagnant since Armenia became an independent state in 1991. Many non-governmental and supra-governmental organizations have attempted to influence this complicated relationship to no avail. Changes in official attitudes may reflect attempts at rapprochement, but more frequent and consistent interactions between people living in Armenia and Turkey will provide the best possible means by which these two neighbors might learn to live in harmony.

• TURKEY, THE WORLD, AND THE ARMENIAN QUESTION
  Arend Jan Boekestijn

  Turkey grapples with both pressure from European actors and domestic clashes regarding the Armenian question. The author outlines the recent developments in this realm while evaluating the implications of Turkey's reactions to these developments. Leaving the ultimate question as to whether the massacres constituted genocide to historians, the author portrays both sides of the story and advises Turkey, Armenia, and the EU to take steps which will be conducive to the normalization of relations between Turkey and Armenia, and which will ease Turkey's EU membership prospects.

• TURKEY - AZERBAIJAN: THE HONEYMOON IS OVER
  Fariz Ismailzade

  The relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan are often taken for granted, by both third parties and the two countries themselves. The author offers an account of the different phases the relationship has gone through in the last 15 years, pointing out the main themes that still define the partnership and concluding that the Turkish-Azeri solidarity needs to be worked on rather than assumed to be strong.

• NO LONGER NEWLYWEDS: THE EVOLUTION OF TURKISH FOREIGN POLICY TOWARD ISRAEL
  Rachel Brandenburg

  This article discusses the domestic and regional circumstances that influenced Turkish attitudes toward Israel, from the beginning of their relationship in the 1950s, through the present. Acknowledging recent strains, the author illustrates that although the military strategic interests that initially motivated bilateral relations are no longer of primary concern to Turkey or to Israel, the relationship has since evolved into one that reaches beyond the bonds of its initial inception and remains mutually beneficial to both parties.

• DOES ANKARA READ THE CARDS OF THE HANDS OF STRANGE BEDFELLOWS
  Özgül Erdemli

  The essay focuses on the development the enduring alliance between Syria and Iran which dates back to almost three decades ago. The author attempts to examine the Syrian-Iranian alliance within the context of the regional politics and international developments. She later argues unless there will be a regime change in Tehran and/or Damascus, Syria and Iran would still be dependent on their alliance to further their geopolitical interests in the future. The author believes regimes in Damascus and Tehran present a challenge to Turkey. Finally the essay critically examines Turkey's position towards the unlikely allies of Tehran and Damascus.

• AN ECONOMIC VISION FOR CYPRUS: THE GREEK CYPRIOT EXPERIENCE
  George Stavri

  In the last four years, the world's major powers and the UN aspired to a final solution to one of the most intractable problems of our times, the Cyprus Problem. The effort culminated in disappointment as both Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot communities went their separate ways in the referendum. Despite political talk of a solution, economics is carving a different course for the Island's communities. Two disengaged economies have grown up separately and are getting used to it. If this is allowed to continue a political solution will not be possible. The challenge for the Greek Cypriot community is to include in its visions the economy of the Turkish Cypriot community without overshadowing it but allow it to grow under one federal umbrella in the EU ‘independently together'. Greek Cypriots and Cyprus as a whole urgently needs new political minds fresh and free from the heavy hand of history.

• THE TURKISH CYPRIOT BUSINESS COMMUNITY AS A POLITICO-ECONOMIC ACTOR SEARCHING FOR A SOLUTION
  Canan Balkir

  The paper will assess the changes and continuities in the perceptions and positioning of the Turkish Cypriot economic actors in search of a solution for Cyprus. In particular, it will focus on the Turkish Cypriot business community as an increasingly leading political actor striving for the solution of the conflict during the period from the European Union's Helsinki Summit in December 1999 when Turkey was granted the candidate status for full membership until the referenda in April 2004 for the unification of the island in accordance with the Annan Plan. It will also illustrate the disillusionment of the business community after the referenda and review their endless efforts to end the isolation of the economy of the North.

• INTEGRATING NORTH CYPRUS INTO THE EU
  Kaya Arslan

  In the aftermath of the referenda in Cyprus, the UN and the EU made commitments for the lifting of economic embargoes and all forms of unnecessary restrictions imposed upon the Turkish Cypriots. The Turkish Cypriots are still waiting for the obstacles which have adversely affected their life for over 40 years to be lifted. This paper explores the political, legal, social and economic aspects of life in North Cyprus, along with the potential implications of integrating North Cyprus into the EU by developing economic relations.

• THE FUTURE OF TURKISH-GREEK RELATIONS
  Tarik Oguzlu

  This article argues that Turkey's accession process to the European Union will offer the best incentives for Turkey and Greece to resolve their bilateral disputes in the years to come. None of the parties concerned would find it rational to halt this process. Besides, observes will also likely notice that the dynamics of Turkish-Greek bilateral disputes will increasingly be detached from the dynamics of the Cyprus dispute. Greece will probably play the role of pacifier whenever the Greek Cypriots attempt to gain concessions from Turkey during Turkey's long accession process.

• THE EFFECTS OF INSTABILITY ON BILATERAL TRADE WITH IRAQ
  Ayla Ogus & Can Erbil

  This article investigates the effects of instability on Turkish and Iraqi bilateral foreign trade. It focuses on Turkish exports to Iraq and their fluctuations before, during and after periods of regional and global instability. We find the effects of both global and regional instability to be positive on Turkish exports to Iraq. Based on our results, trade costs of instability in Iraq need to be evaluated carefully. Policy implications suggest that a long-term and sustained stability in Iraq might be preferred to a hasty and ad hoc solution.