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CIAO DATE: 06/05
Spring 2005 (Volume 4, Number 1)
Pitfalls and Opportunities for the US-Turkish Alliance A TPQ Exclusive Interview with Richard Perle by Nigar Göksel
Richard Perle is Resident Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research. Previously Richard Perle served as Chairman of the Defense Policy Board (2001-2003); Member of the Defense Policy Board (1987-2004); Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Policy (1981-87); and served on the US Senate Staff (1960-1980). He is a leading authority on national security, military requirements, arms proliferation, defense and regional conflicts. In our interview, Mr. Perle makes an assessment of the state of the US-Turkey relationship in which he has figured prominently over the years. Mr. Perle evaluates the recent decisions and public sentiments in Turkey as they relate to the future of the relationship with the United States. He also reflects upon various issues including Turkey’s relationship with Israel and journey towards EU membership.
Taking a Closer Look at Turkish-American Relations by Mehmet Dülger
During the Cold War international relations, Turkey has a place, suited to its interests and policies, and could contribute to world peace effectively. The author points out that the relationship between Turkey and the US has been indexed to military relations for far too long and the US has not taken the time to understand Turkey on a multi-dimensional plane. Leaving official statements aside, being a long-time politician, the author moves on to show how the prevailing conditions are seen from the public’s and intellectuals’ eyes, with an aim to make Turkey’s stance more understandable to America. The general resentment felt around the world, especially in Eurasia and the Middle East, towards the US is attributable to the perception that US is acting like an imperial power at an age of democratic ideals, whereas the US itself claims to symbolize democratic ideals. The US was also not particularly receptive to the concerns of Turkey regarding the current Iraq conflict. This confused Turkey’s status as an ally and as a friend. The consequent rejection of the resolution of March 1st and the following reactions from the US created a negative effect on the public. The anger felt by the Turkish public is one of conjectural nature, which does not necessarily reflect enmity or structural opposition. Indicating that Turkey appreciates the US support on many other issues, the author points out that the public is inclined to think that much of this support had come with reservations and price tags attached. Explaining that there is ample room for natural strategic partnerships and trade partnerships between Turkey and the US, the author emphasizes that the expectations of the public from their governments is primarily of economic nature.
Allergic Partners: Can US-Turkish Relations Be Saved? by Mark Parris
When Turkey’s Parliament on March 1, 2003 failed to approve the Bush Administration’s request for a “northern front” against Iraq, it became clear that the Iraq War would prove a watershed in U.S. - Turkish strategic partnership. Left unanswered at the time were fundamental questions of how relations would develop after such a shock. Two years later, the answers are largely in, and they are not reassuring. In such key areas as Iraq, defense and diplomatic cooperation, and economic relations, the tone and substance of U.S.-Turkish partnership has become more “allergic” than “strategic.” Condoleeza Rice’s early 2005 visit to Ankara may be a turning point. But it will take more than just nice words to keep this relationship from reverting to the caustic default mode of recent years.
Turkish-US Relations: Convergence or Divergence? by Îlhan Kesici
Currently, the US is the sole superpower and 9/11 has created a new global struggle, defined by the US, in which freedom and democracy confront dictatorship and terror. Taking this environment as a given, the author believes Turkey should have made it a priority to be a reliable partner to the US in the past few years and questions the capability of the current government. The author also underlines the value of Turkey’s relationship with Israel and puts public opinion in perspective, explaining that many of the sentiments today are conjectural, suggesting that the public can be led to conceive the changes taking place with more clarity and vision. Taking change as an inevitable factor in today’s world, Kesici argues that Turkey is well positioned to play an active role in the Greater Middle East initiative of the US.
A Comedy of Errors: American-Turkish Diplomacy and the Iraq War by Michael Rubin
The Grand National Assembly’s failure to allow American troops to use Turkish territory to conduct military operations on Iraq was a watershed event in Turkish-American relations. It did not occur in isolation, though, but rather was the result of diplomatic and political errors and miscalculations on both sides. Nor can the March 1 vote - or the July 4 incident - fully explain subsequent US-Turkish tension. Irritants in bilateral relations have included misguided US diplomacy in the run-up to the war and an American failure to properly address PKK terrorism, as well as counterproductive Turkish strategies regarding Iraqi Turkmen and Kurds. Both Washington and Ankara have failed to engage productively about the future of Kirkuk.
Turkish-American Relations: Past and Future by Nüzhet Kandemir
Turkish-American relations are important not only for the countries themselves but also for the stability and peace in the strategic region where Turkey is located. These relations have to be strenghtened in every area possible. US and Turkey should be very careful to understand each other in dealing with the problems which will inevitably arise during the process. There are sensitivities on both sides which should be approached carefully without being too assertive. Instead of blaming each other for mistakes done in the past, it is absolutely necessary that each country shares the responsibility and looks for solutions acceptable to their public.
The Road Through Brussels: Cyprus on the US-Turkey Agenda by John Stilides
Historically, US-Turkish relations have been deeply affected by events in Cyprus ever since the 1963 crisis, and especially the 1974 coup and invasion. Since the Greek Cypriot rejection of the Annan Plan in April 2004, decades of vigorous diplomatic efforts by the US State Department to resolve the Cyprus problem have ground to a near halt. Turkish and Turkish Cypriot support for the Annan Plan, which was strongly endorsed by the European Union, have also diminished the impact of Cyprus developments on US-Turkish relations. Separately, however, the relationship is in a state of severe disrepair in the wake of Turkish misconceptions about US aims and actions in Iraq and the broader Middle East, as well as the profound mutual mistrust that has only hardened since the March 1, 2003 Turkish parliamentary vote rejecting a Turkish role in the Iraq invasion. At this point, even a historic and welcome solution to the Cyprus problem will have little positive influence on US-Turkey relations, which may have entered a transformational phase with uncertain outcomes.
Paradigm Shift in Turkish-US Relations by Kemal Köprülü
Turkish-US relations arguably reached its highest point in 1999, highlighted by President Clinton’s five-day visit to Turkey in November of the same year. A very strong argument can be made today that in a period of five years, Turkish-US relations have reached a low point, perhaps the lowest in decades. This paper analyzes how Turkey and the US got to this low point, with anecdotes, relating concrete cases and highlighting examples of mismanagement and bad judgment by both Turkey and the US. The past and present relations are compared on multiple dimensions with a critical yet constructive perspective, drawing conclusions on how to move forward, albeit incrementally and within the framework of a new paradigm.
The South Caucuses: Where the US and Turkey Succeeded Together by Elin Süleymanov
As Americans and Turks discuss the ups and downs in their relationship, the strategically important South Caucasus is one area, where, working together, Turkey and the United States have helped bring about historic changes. More can be done to realize the region’s promise should the US and Turkey deepen their partnership with Azerbaijan and Georgia and build on the policies that have proven to be successful. This success has been based on forward-looking pragmatism and recognition of common interests. Acknowledging the achievements in the South Caucasus and learning from them can contribute to future progress in the US-Turkey relationship.
Turkish-US Relations: The Role of the Armenian Issue by Richard Giragosian
Although several broad geopolitical issues have contributed to a fundamental shift in strategic relations between Turkey and the United States, the Armenian issue represents one of the more complex challenges facing Turkey today. Specifically, the Armenian issue comprises a daunting set of unresolved problems, ranging from the genocide issue to the Nagorno Karabagh conflict. The significance of the Armenian issue goes well beyond the confines of the Caucasus, as the current stage of Turkey’s transition will be particularly impacted by its approach to relations with Armenia and its handling of the deeper aspects of the Armenian issue.
New Opportunities for the Turco-American Alliance in the Caucuses by Stephan Blank
Recent trends in the Black Sea region including: Ukraine’s revolution, the impending start of Turkish-EU accession talks and changing policies among both local Caucasian governments and the major powers and security organizations, all suggest possibilities for launching a renewed, concerted, and multilateral initiative for the resolution of long standing disputes in the area. This essay suggests conditions necessary for beginning such an initiative and proposes that there might be ways to leverage these developments to secure their acceptance by Russia. Nevertheless, even if Russia refuses to join this process, the West, should take advantage of these opportunities anyway. Such initiatives must be holistic in nature and present solutions for dealing with the established “war economy” of the region. The initiative should aim at both conflict resolution and democratization of the area which entails putting all military organizations under effective and legitimate democratic control.
Middle Eeastern Perceptions of US-Turkey Relations After the 2003 Iraq War by Ibrahim Al-Marashi
The US-Turkey relationship has been viewed with skepticism among certain actors in the Middle East. American attempts to promote Turkey as a successful Muslim democracy has aroused criticism from regional players who argue that liberalization should emerge indigenously, and not from external initiatives. Turkey’s decision to accept an American request to deploy troops to Iraq in October 2003 was also met with a cold reception in the region. Examining the perspectives from the Egyptian, Iranian and Iraqi state run and independent media, a prevailing mood of suspicion of US-Turkey relations can be observed. Nevertheless, there are indications that Turkey could play a positive role in the region in the future. Besides analyzing these dynamics, this article examines Middle Eastern terrorist discourse to ascertain how these elements justify their violence against an American ally.
Turkey’s Search for a “Third Option” and its Impact on Relations with US and Israel by Anat Lapidot-Firilla
The article focuses on Turkish search for a “third option,” a foreign policy that radiates greater independence and a claim for regional power status. AKP (Justice and Development Party) government, which came to power with no coherent foreign policy, has become most comfortable within the emerging “third option” framework, a move that both suits the party’s domestic internal agenda but also the needs to rediscover Turkey’s strategic assets. It is argued that Turkey’s new foreign policy line has so far harmed its relations with both the US and Israel, for very little return.
Turkey’s Relations with the Divided West: Changing Parameters by Aylin Seker Görener
Turkey has been adopting a more European perspective on a number of issues for some time; it should come as no surprise that its foreign policy will become more closely aligned with that of Paris and Berlin over the course of accession negotiations. The Atlantic divide has proven not to be a transient phenomenon and this makes it very difficult for Turkey to maintain close relations with the US and pursue EU membership on complementary tracks. The EU emerges as a civilian superpower with a wide range of soft power tools to exert its influence on global affairs; it also offers a relatively benign image of the West. The US, on the other hand, continues to lose prestige and credibility on the world scene despite its overwhelming military might. This paper argues that Turkey stands to gain more from aligning with the European position in world affairs and it is timely for Turkey to redefine its “strategic partnership” with the US.
The Missing Element: Turkish Public Opinion Towards the US by Emre Erdogan
Recent developments in US-Turkey relations, especially with regard to Turkish public opinion, have attracted the attention of decision makers. Sparked by the findings of some public opinion polls, the media has engaged in a discussion of the “anti-Americanism” of the Turkish public. This paper aims to elaborate the attitudes of the Turkish public towards the US, using the findings of several public opinion polls conducted recently. Polls show that anti-Americanism has increased in recent years, probably as a result of the Iraqi War and foreign policy conducted by the Bush administration. Nevertheless, this attitude is accompanied by an appreciation of the American way of life. Such a complex situation emphasizes the fact that much more effort must be exerted to understand this previously forgotten element: the element of public opinion.