|
|
|
|
Map of Europe Map of Middle East |
CIAO DATE: 09/04
Summer 2004 (Volume 3, Number 2)
NATO's 2004 Istanbul Summit: Charting The Alliance's Ongoing Adaptation to 21st Century Risks and Challenges by Jaap de Hoop Scheffer
Projecting stability has become the precondition for our security. Territorial defense remains a core function, but we simply can no longer protect our security without addressing the potential risks and threats that arise far from our homes. Terrorism, weapons of mass destruction and instability flowing from failed states are threats that know no borders. This new strategic environment forces us to look at security in a completely different light than we did in the past. The agenda of the Summit in Istanbul on 28-29 June will reflect the volatility of the new, 21st century security environment. And it will reflect the strong determination of Alliance governments to continue to transform NATO into an effective instrument for tackling the many risks and challenges that environment poses.
Afghanistan at the Crossroads of History by Hikmet Çetin
Had the international community not intervened, Afghanistan would probably have further deteriorated as a breeding ground for terrorists and drug-traffickers, and it could well have become a powerhouse generating constant instability not only to its neighbours, but also the world at large. Although military victory was secured in a swift fashion from an operational perspective, our multi-faceted involvement in Afghanistan still continues. A successful completion of engagement in Afghanistan will be closely linked to the success attained in the certain milestones upcoming for Afghanistan in the coming months.
Re-Conceptualization of Soft Security and Turkey's Civilian Contributions to International Security by Ugur Ziyal
The mix and method regarding how hard and soft security policies are implemented in times of crisis and conflict are still contentious issues. There is a substantive amount of discussion among scholars and experts on how to make the best use of these policies. The common denominator in such discussions seems to be that the elements of soft security are of a rather preventive nature and best employed to reinstitute stability and introduce normalcy in afflicted areas. The author argues that through enhancing cooperation and dialogue, as well as extending financial assistance and development programs, the aim now is to neutralize the potential violent nature of soft threats and prevent them from becoming hard threats in the long run. He also discusses Turkey's contribution to international security both in hard and soft terms in a vast geography ranging from the Balkans to Afghanistan.
Links between Terrorism and Other Forms of Crime: The Case of Narcoterrorism by Alex P Schmid
This article explores the nature of links between terrorism and trafficking in illicit narcotic drugs. It discusses some of the empirical evidence on the simultaneous presence of armed conflict, including the terrorist variety, and the cultivation, processing and trafficking of narcotic drugs. While some authors postulate close links-and even convergence-between terrorist groups and organized crime groups, the author is more skeptical about the nature and extent of this connection. He points out both similarities and differences between these two types of organizations and also explores the possible reasons which might tempt and restrain groups of one type to establishing connections with groups of a significantly different mindset. He finds that the "in-house" development of organized crime activities by terrorist organizations is a more imminent problem than a close alliance or convergence of organized crime and terrorist organizations. Consequently, he recommends that the Palermo Convention against Transnational Organized Crime be used to prevent terrorist organizations from acquiring the financial resources needed to launch and maintain terrorist campaigns. At the same time he is skeptical about the use of the concept of "narco-terrorism." Its implication, the fusing of the "war on drugs" and the "war on terror," might do a disservice to both.
5. Weak and Failing States: Critical New Security Issues by Robert I. Rotberg
This essay defines the nature of state failure and explains the differences between strong, weak, failing, failed, and collapsed states. The author argues that failing states are a particular worry to the security of the twenty-first century. The role of the European Union and NATO in approaching the issue of failed states, and the deficiencies of EU and NATO policy are noted. Methods of preventing state failure are discussed, along with indicators that provide early warning for failure.
To the Shores of Tripoli by Ali Köknar
From the Halls of Montezuma to the Shores of Tripoli" the opening line from the US Marine Corps Hymn, refers to the armed action President Thomas Jefferson took in the early 19th century against the Muslim corsairs of the Barbary Coast of North Africa, which eventually resulted in the construction of the first permanent US Navy. In our age, maritime terrorism has emerged as a formidable threat in the world, targeting both civilian and naval vessels in NATO's area of operations. The threat is compounded by the use of maritime vessels and shipping lanes by criminals who are often in league with terrorists. With the possibility that weapons of mass destruction could be used as a terrorist weapon, efforts to pre-empt such attacks which could cause mass civilian casualties has become a top NATO priority, making it necessary for the alliance to expand its maritime frontier. As the stakes are raised, NATO must innovate in order to counter the new maritime threats.
Turkey, Iran and Nuclear Risks by Ian Lesser
In his assessment of Turkey's approach to WMD risks the author includes the perceptions and internal dynamics among various regional actors, capabilities of involved players, and the role of evolving strategic alliances. Analyzing possible Turkish responses to the advent of an openly nuclear Iran, Lesser estimates that the extent and character of Turkish security ties -with the US, within NATO, and with European partners- will be key factors, as well as internal political developments. The effects of a nuclear Iran on Turkey's regional and international policies are explored and the influence of Turkey's prospect of EU membership on Turkey's potential responses are analyzed. In this framework Lesser identifies the costs and benefits of Turkey's cooperation with the US and Israel as well as the role of NATO and the EU in determining Turkey's stance regarding WMDs in general, and specifically regarding Iran's nuclear ambitions.
Turkey's Sweet and Sour Policy Against NBC Weapons by Mustafa Kibarolu
Turkey's geographic location requires it to take measures against the proliferation of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons as well as ballistic missiles as their delivery vehicles in its immediate neighborhood. These measures are mainly two folds: First, to support the efforts to strengthen the international nonproliferation regimes so as to make them more effective in curbing the spread of NBC weapons; and to build up military capabilities in close cooperation with the United States and Israel in particular to increase its deterrent capability as well as its ability to cope with the proliferating states in its surrounding region, if need be. As such, Turkey pursues a realistic approach by adopting both soft and hard security approaches concomitantly.
Turkey's Security Needs and Policy on the Threshold of the 21st Century by inasi Demir
The classical understanding of threat, security, and stability have transformed over the recent years. This essay analyzes Turkey's readiness and priorities in this new security environment. Demir stresses that Turkey's goal should be to create a peace and security zone around itself and observes that Turkey's future membership to the EU would strengthen EU's political power and would greatly contribute to the formulation of EU's regional policies. Demir concludes by offering his expectations from the upcoming NATO Summit pointing out that NATO is still the most effective among security institutions due to the fact that it has managed to adapt to new security challenges brought about with time.
NATO's Role in South Caucasus Regional Security by Svante Cornell
This article begins with an analysis of the security deficit in the South Caucasus and how instability in this region could threaten the interests of NATO. The author argues that NATO's increased engagement in this region is needed. To this end, the author provides recommendations both for NATO and the South Caucasus. The author advocates a focused and strategic approach to the South Caucasus on the part of NATO, with European powers being more responsive to the threats and opportunities emanating from the South Caucasus. He is skeptical about allowing Russian opposition to be an obstacle to NATO's efforts and notes that in the long term NATO success in this region is in Russia's interests as well. Pointing out the political and military improvements Partnership for Peace (PfP) has fostered, the author underlines the importance of keeping these countries anchored to the Euro-Atlantic system.
Progress and Challenges: The State of Security in The Balkans by Sandra Breka
This article argues that despite some progress in the area of security the Balkans, the countries of the region still face hard and soft security challenges. The unprecedented financial, political and military engagement of the EU and its member states in the Balkans have shown limited results. The author argues that the international community, particularly the European Union, should rethink its strategies toward the Balkans and address security issues in a coherent and timely manner if it wants to consolidate the accomplishments to date.
ESDP and New Security Challenges: How the Petersberg Tasks Have Come a Long Way by Gülnur Aybet
The Petersberg tasks refer to the scope of EU military missions. A military mission is defined by the requirement that it respond to threats and security challenges with available capabilities. For the EU, both emerging threats and available capabilities have gone through many changes since the inception of the original Petersberg tasks in 1992. This paper explores the changing dimension of EU military missions in response to the changing security environment and the EU's search for a global strategy.
European Defense: Why the EU Should Play a Bigger Role by Charles Grant
This article assesses the development of ESDP in the context of relationships among EU states and makes certain suggestions as to how to minimize potential rifts among member states to move forward constructively. As Charles Grant relates NATO's positive initiatives to broaden the area of stability, he also points out that NATO is the most seriously taken transatlantic vehicle for all involved parties and thus increasingly will serve as a platform for transatlantic cooperation. Predicting the gradual convergence of the foreign policy interests of the EU states and the development of a common European approach to military operations, Grant takes a futuristic "glance" into this evolution. He also predicts that the challenges faced in the relationship between NATO and ESDP will be overcome.
Anti-Americanism and its Threat to Trans-Atlantic Cooperation and Security by Christian Jokinen
Anti-Americanism has become fashionable and is now a threat to the transatlantic cooperation. The risks of anti-Americanism are numerous and severe. Protests against "American imperialism" connected with almost all recent international summits recall the year 1968 and the wave of radicalism and terrorism in the 60s and 70s. A significant part of anti-American rhetoric is aimed at undermining the "legitimacy" of the hegemonic position of the US. The result of this could be that the key-player of world security may turn to neo-isolationism and turn its back to Europe. The old continent lacks the "power-political" resources to take the lead in world politics. Europe lacks the means to challenge the US in political influence, economic power or military might in the foreseeable future. If America is criticized in an irrational and emotional way, the outcome will be a US disengagement from the transatlantic pact and Europe's marginalization in global politics. It is desirable for Europe to balance the disparity of power between the US and Europe, but it would be most irresponsible and inconsiderate for Europe to choose a path leading to multipolarism and confrontation with the US, instead of cooperation.
EU's Long-Term Stability Strategy for the Middle East by Siret Hürsoy
Not only Middle Eastern states, but all other states -particularly the states in this strategic environment- are economically dependent on the region's oil resources. Besides economically guaranteeing the continuous flow of regional oil resources into Europe, the EU's overall strategic political interest is to provide security for itself in the long-term. This could only be realized by pursuing a strategic stability politics with the US; but the EU is trying to do this with the logic of imposing its own "principles" when necessary. Thus, the EU made it clear that the ambitious US initiative called the Greater Middle East project has to be modified multilaterally. This article aims to analyze EU's oil and security interests, with an emphasis on its long-term stability strategy, which the EU tries to realize in close cooperation with the US and consultation with the Middle Eastern countries.
Transformation of Al-Qaeda's Strategy in Light of the New Global War on Terrorism by Arben Qirezi
The September 11 attacks have changed the world's security environment. The tremendous developments in the wake of this event have resulted in two major wars. The sustained struggle against terror has yielded significant results, but not a foreseeable end to terrorist networks. Although operating in a less conducive environment after the intervention in Afghanistan, Al-Qaeda has quickly adapted to new circumstances, mobilizing affiliated organizations to carry out attacks against US troops in Iraq and against its allies, highlighting the new agenda and tactics employed by the Network. This article examines the development of Al-Qaeda, its strategic goals and its global agenda in light of the global war on terrorism.