CIAO DATE: 07/04

Turkish Policy Quarterly

 

Spring 2003 (Volume 2, Number 1)

• US-Turkish Relations In The Post-Iraq War Era  by Mark R. Parris

  During the nineties, Turks and Americans found they had become more, not less important to one another than during the Cold War, and declared themselves "strategic partners." The meaning of that phrase was changing even before George Bush decided to go to war with Iraq. But the President's decision accelerated the process and raised the stakes.

  The Iraq war is a watershed in U.S. - Turkish relations. Turkey will remain a key country for Washington. But the partnership will inevitably involve a new agenda based on post-war realities.  Sets of issues likely to figure prominently on that agenda include: the shape of post-Saddam Iraq; the future of an American military presence in Turkey; likely future missions for Turkey's armed forces; U.S. reliability as a supplier of military equipment; the interrelationship among Turkey, the EU, NATO and the U.S.; and Turkey's economy.

• After The Tsunami  by Soli Özel

  As the1990s waned, there were ample signs that stopgap measures needed to give way to serious efforts at effecting a basic overhaul of Turkey’s key political and economic institutions. Yet fierce resistance slowed reform, at least until the twin economic catastrophes of November 2000 and February 2001 showed all but the most incorrigibly obtuse that to try and carry on with “business as usual” would be tantamount to embracing national self-destruction. This led to surging pro-EU sentiment, a broad-based demand for further democratic reform, and fury directed at any and all institutions deemed responsible for the calamities of recent years. The popular support for EU membership is new, and suggests that this great goal of Republican Turkey is no longer the special preserve of elites. Ultimately, the push for change, the claims of a rising counterelite to a place in the power structure, and the popularity of EU membership all point to a fundamental fact: Having undergone a rather unsettling two decades, Turkey is now ready to shake off the shackles of the 1982 military-drafted constitution as well as the mentality that framed it. It was the tide of these aspirations and this disenchantment with the established order of things that brought the AKP to power as the only untested major party in the running on 3 November 2002. AKP, if it continues to hold together, has a historic task and opportunity to be the agent of Turkey’s transformation from a spotty and in too many ways illiberal democracy into a fully fledged specimen of the liberal democratic breed.

• Learning It The Hard Way  by Semih Ìdiz

  Turkey is the center of international attention once again for a host of reasons which have to do with her geo-strategic location, and the unique fact that she has a secular parliamentary democracy despite being a predominantly Islamic country. The landslide victory by the “Islamists” in the November elections merely heightened this interest, leading many to question what the “Justice and Development Party’s foreign policy priorities would be. It did not take long before it became apparent that this party was not going to align with people’s prejudices.The party’s leaders, on the other hand , received a crash course on the realities facing those in power.

• Turkey’s “Light Muslims” And The West  by Sean Michael Cox

  The significance of the Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) success in the November 2002 elections is a question of great importance.  For the West, which has an innate fear of a resurgent Islam, caution must be taken before lumping AKP together with the fundamentalist Islamic movements prevalent in the Muslim world. When dealing with AKP and its leadership, Western governments should take into consideration their own liberal traditions, the history of Islam in the world, and the role of political Islam in Turkish society.

• Reluctant Ally  by Mensur Akgün & Sabiha Senyücel

  After a long period characterized by close collaboration between the US and Turkey, Turkey became a reluctant ally when the fight was taken to Bagdad. Turkey’s hesitance did not stem from its sympathy for Saddam or any doubt regarding its alliance with the US. Turkey had military, strategic and economic concerns regarding what a possible attack to Iraq might mean for its own national interests. Despite having no interest in the initiation of an American intervention, Turkey nonetheless felt the need to participate to make sure its interests were preserved. As such the veto of the Turkish Parliament shocked both the US and Turkish administrations. Yet as long as the US sticks to the agreed guidelines, Turkey is likely to maintain cooperative behavior.

• Civil Society And Turkish Politics  by Kemal Köprülü

  For a long time Turkey has been administrated by a political triangle, where a few people at the top of the triangle were the agenda-setters and the decision makers. Media and business interests were basically in line with this philosophy and instead of challenging it, played along. During the last 5 years, a number of developments such as the coming of age of the NGO sector and growing influence of youth have begun to wear down this political triangle system. The November 2002 elections was the first time that political accountability has actually worked in the Turkish political process, a critical development that must be underscored. This is actually a victory for civil society and its constituents who have been working for a long  time to promote change in the system.

• Benchmarking The New Government  by Kaan Durukan

  The most remarkable feature of the November elections was the decisive victory of the AKP, a party associated with Islamist politics. The second distinguishing feature was the restoration of a bipolar political system, in other words the emergence of a “center”, that put an end to the series of coalition governments which had ruled since the early 1990s. Despite this political advantage, AKP’s answers to the challenges facing the country are still unclear. The priority of Turkish citizens is the effective restoration of the economy. At another level, two factors which significantly influence more than two centuries of Ottoman-Turkish modernization, namely the role of religion in Turkish social life and relations with the West will constitute the real benchmarks of AKP’s performance in government.

• The New Government And The Economy  by Veyis Fertekligil

  The new Turkish government took office in  November 2002. The Justice and Development Party (AKP) won the November elections and established a single-party government. Although it has Islamic roots, the party can be classified as a center-right party both politically and economically. The government's economic program is based upon the strategy and the targets of the existing stabilization program. However, it must be acknowledged that the performance of the AKP government up to now, has not been very successful with respect to the economy. Fiscal easing and delays in the implementation of structural measures made negotiations with the IMF difficult. There are two major issues that might dramatically affect the performance of the Turkish economy in 2003. The first one is success in implementing the existing economic program, and the second one is the conflict in Iraq.

• What Are AKP’s Plans?  by Ümit Kumcuog˘lu

  The new government formed after the elections was received positively both in financial markets and business circles. During the first five months, it can be said that the AKP government has made significant progress on most of the points listed in their Emergency Action Plan. Yet the upbeat tone in financial markets after the elections has disappeared completely after five months. There were two main reasons for this deterioration : the government proved its commitment to the IMF program through decisive action only after very strong negative reaction to their earlier appearance of lack of commitment and the seriousness of foreign policy challenges on EU integration, Cyprus and Iraq . Adhering to the IMF program and securing economic support from the U.S. or multilateral agencies are obviously necessary for the Turkish economy in the short term. But the longer term prospects depend on administrative and economic reform, aimed at a comprehensive redesign of the Turkish savings framework in both the public sector and the private sector. AKP, as a single party government with a large majority in parliament, is capable, at least on paper, of such decisive action. Whether they will succeed in taking such action remains to be seen.

• Possible Transformation Of Collective Security Arrangements In The Post-September 11 Era  by Hasan Ulusoy

  Collective security is by nature a result of attempts to preserve the security of each and every state, which has come together against a common enemy/adversary. This concept will be analyzed in relation to the role of identity-building in the formation of collective security arrangements. Coercion has been one of the indispensable stimulants in state building. It is evident that anything, which is gained  with coercion, is exposed to threat and thus to implicit vulnerability, as it is not achieved with the free will cooperation of others. Corollary to this logic, it can be said that as states are the product of coercion, they are exposed to threats against their security. Naturally, the essential minimum activities of a state have also been related to the use of coercion. Of these essential activities, war making and protection are directly related to coercion. One can therefore readily understand that security has always been a matter of critical importance for states since their existence is coercion-based.  It is  also evident that in this course of coercion-based international affairs, states resorted also to collective security efforts in various forms ranging from collations to even pacts and alliances that would in turn help their own security.