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CIAO DATE: 07/04
Winter 2002 (Volume 1, Number 4)
NATO And The New Threats by George Robertson
During the cold war Turkey played a vital role, as part of the NATO Alliance, in defending southern Europe. Cold war days are happily over, but not the challenges to the security. Terrorism and the spread of weapons of mass destruction are the major new threats. Over time terrorists have gone global, have become more radical and their acts are becoming increasingly leathal. NATO is getting increasingly ready to play a role in combatting terrorism. The strategic significance of this move can not be underestimated. Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction including chemical, biological and nuclear weapons is the other major threat. At its Prague Summit the Alliance took a number of decisions to cope with this threat. Throughout NATO's history Turkey has not been a country consuming security, but has been one that produce security. As always, Turkey is at the epicenter of changes and shaping the changes for the better.
The WTO System And The Promotion Of Peace by Dr. Supachai Panitchpakdi
In a world as uncertain as ours, we need to continually build a climate for peace. WTO's contribution is best seen in creating a rules-based system to help trade flow smoothly and a constructive and fair process for countries dealing with trade related disputes. The architects of the post second war system have firmly believed that the more countries trade, the less likely they are to war with each other. This vision has proven to be correct. Today there are "trade wars", but these conflicts are fought out in the meeting rooms of WTO. The Doha Development Agenda which is about providing the world's poorest countries a hospitable economic climate is an opportunity for the entire world. What is at stake in Doha is beyond trade. It is about working to build a stronger global economy, reducing instability and uncertainty.
The EU and NATO: the Nexus of European Security by Roberto Menotti
The "European defense" project suffers from a number of limitations - not just a lack of adequate resources but also conceptual flaws. It is not yet clear what fundamental common interests the EU members wish to pursue through the Common Foreign and Security Policy, and consequently through the defense instrument that should be made available by the end of 2003. This step would also help NATO better define its own missions, ensuring that the European allies enhance their contribution. The EU needs the equivalent of a "strategic concept", which can be developed in parallel with the ongoing transformation of NATO.
Turkey's Policy Toward The Middle East The Question of Iraq by Solmaz Unaydin
The Middle East issue and the question of Iraq have increasing been the focus of attention in the international arena. In Turkey, the debate is even more relevant and intense because we happen to be in the immediate vicinity of these problems. Whatever course of action is taken on either issue, Turkey will be significantly affected. Turkey has been seriously victimized by events and circumstances beyond its control over the past decade. During the same period, no other country in the world has had to cope with so many internal and external challenges in so many different directions. If the past ten-year period can be characterized as one of conflicts, the opening years of the new millennium have been no less troubling. The tectonic shift in the geopolitical landscape caused by the September 11 attacks has led many other countries to reevaluate their priorities and revisit their strategies for dealing with the common challenges faced by the humanrace. The growing awareness of asymmetrical threats like terrorism, transnational crime of all types and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction is, in itself, very important. An equally important fact is that humanity can only be effective in dealing with these problems if it responds to them in a cooperative spirit and collectively. If we hope to deal a decisive blow to forces of evil, remedy the ills that afflict our societies and resolve the conflicts that threaten our own well-being, we must act together, try to forge coalitions and build as strong a consensus as possible about how to tackle such issues. The same approach should also prevail with regard to the complex problems of the Middle East.
Water and Turkish Security by Ilan Berman
Over the past several years, as regional resources have declined in availability, hydro-politics has grown to dominate national security and strategic planning among countries in the Middle East. For Turkey, water is rapidly emerging as one of the most significant elements of the country's contemporary security policy. This article examines the relationship of the water issue to Ankara's relationship with Damascus, the problem of Kurdish terrorism, and the evolving strategic partnership between Turkey and Israel.
Turkey's Security Perspectives And Perceptions by Turan Morali
Turkey's security perspectives can be analysed in terms of concentric circles. The nucleus is the Turkish domestic scene, followed by her immediate security environment comprised of neighbours. Then comes the broader geography consisting of regions and countries that have indirect bearing on Turkey's security concerns yet which have historical, cultural or ethnic affinities. Euro-Atlantic and wider frameworks of security including NATO and the EU is the following building block. Finally the uniquely universal security organisation, the UN completes the picture. In short, the new security environment presents the international community with universal challenges which must be addressed with vision, determination, solidarity and cooperation, if future generations are to be given a better world. A building-blocks approach to security issues, starting at the immediate environment with a view to enhancing mutual understanding, confidence and cooperation, moving on to a wider geo-strategic context through effective use of multilateral mechanisms, thus pursuing active and positive engagement in a geo-strategic continuum is a viable approach. Turkey has the right strategic vision and capacity to bring its useful contribution in this context.
Regional Security: An Iranian Perspective by Dr. Seyed Kazem Sajjadpourr
Regional security is important because we are living in a highly interdependent world and this interdependence is not just economic. Moreover there is an increasing insecurity in our region, which states and societies could not overcome just by themselves. The main challenge to regional security in our part of the world is the lack of will to work collectively. Existence of extra-regional players is also contradictory to the spirit of regional cooperation. On the other hand, the revolution in communication giving way to interaction among the peoples and the commonalities between our societies are the opprotunities for overcoming regional security challenges.
The Cyprus Dilemma by Ozdem Sanberk
By 28 February, the people of Cyprus on both sides of the Green Line, as well as those in the two mainlands of Greece and Turkey are going to decide whether to proceed with the peace plan designed by the United Nations or not. If either side rejects it, then very probably Cyprus will remain a divided island for the foreseeable future and the Greek part of the island will enter the EU as a full member, while the Turkish Cypriots will remain outside it. There is no doubt that an historical opportunity will have been missed, but neither side has an easy choice to make. Some aspects of the Turkish Cypriot situation which even at this late hour ought to be born in mind by everyone.
The reality of the island is that there are two peoples on it, not one. From the start, the core issue is about the rights and freedom of the Turkish Cypriots, not the influence of Turkey or Greece. The formula of a new state suggested by Lord Hannay and which would be formed by two 'constituent' states could go some way to meeting the concerns of the Turkish Cypriots. Only a settlement based on equality can provide for a genuine solution to the ills of the island. Such a settlement will not be easy to reach, as the fitful progress of this year's talks has shown. But Greek Cypriot accession will only make it more difficult, if not impossible. The direct talks between the leaders must continue, because they open the way to a solution by removing the imbalance between the sides. And the EU and the international community must also do everything in their power to encourage the removal of this asymmetry.
The Future Of NATO by Ahmet Uzumcu
NATO has once again a vital role to play in the new era we are in, as the security organisation of choice. Therefore, it must maintain its effectiveness across the full spectrum of its missions ranging from collective defence to crisis management. The fight agains terrorism has assumed a totally new dimension in the aftermath of September 11th. NATO should adapt its framework to effectively counter an assymmetric threat as such. Developping NATO capabilities to deal with weapons of mass destruction is also of utmost importance. Even now, NATO is harvesting the fruits of more than 50 years of joint planning, training and operations. Moreover, enlargement process presents a historic opportunity for the Alliance to enhance its contribution to the Euro-Atlantic security, as does the new context of NATO-Russia relationship.
The EU And Turkey In European Security by Can Buharali
The dangers confronting Europe today are less specific than during the cold war. Instability is the new threat and the existence of powerful international institutions is the main element against this new threat. In order to establish a post cold war cooperation framework it should be sufficient to retool and adapt the existing institutional framework by giving priority to mutual interests and shared dangers. The evolution of the ESDP throughout the last fifty years bears with itself all the ups and downs caused by the lack of political will and the differences of opinion between the leading European states. September 11th has been instrumental in reminding the value of the cooperation spirit already developped within NATO, and this spirit of cooperation helped the finalisation of a solution to the ESDP which constitutes a remarkable achievement.
The Future Of Iraq by Yola Habif
This paper analyzes the implications of an ethnically divided Federation of Iraq. Regional implications, problems within "Kurdistan," minority concerns and the revival of Islamism will be taken into consideration in analyzing security issues that arise vis-à-vis the creation of such an entity. Taken together, the study demonstrates that given U.S. and neighboring countries' interests, a future Federation of Iraq based on ethnic lines would be ominous to the future of the Middle East. More specifically, the analysis argues that under the given circumstances a federation would likely lead to a war between Turkey and Iraqi Kurds, convergence of Iranian-Turkish security interests, a power vacuum susceptible to conflict, and the revival of Islamism.
Academia:
Internationalism vs. Parochialism in the era of Globalization: Can the EU help the search for security in the Middle East? by Kemal Kirisci
The purpose of this paper is to describe internationalism and parochialism and link the impact of both using the examples provided by the European Union and the Middle East in a comparative manner. Then the role of public opinion with regard to these two approaches will be examined. The paper will conclude by arguing that examples from other regions of the world suggest that states in the Middle East are more likely to develop a secure environment for themselves if they could encourage a 'democratic culture' in domestic politics to emerge. In the short run there is, of course, the risk that a parochial public opinion encouraged by populism will become vociferous but this can be controlled by active involvement of the EU in supporting democratic transition. The benefits of globalization in terms of greater democracy, rule of law and economic prosperity will be a powerful motivating factor for such a public opinion or constituencies to emerge.
Public Opinion
Turkish Public Opinion Survey byStrateji Mori