CIAO DATE: 10/03

Survival

 

 

Autumn 2003 (Vol. 45 No. 3)

Articles

• The Rise and Fall of Arms Control

  Avis Bohlen

  The US withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in June 2002 ended the era when the effort to control nuclear weapons was a central preoccupation of US foreign policy. Arms control did little to control weapons during the Cold War, but it was a political imperative which assuaged the anxiety of the nuclear competition. At the end of the Cold War, arms-control treaties initially provided an essential mechanism for managing the decline of Soviet power. Then the paraphernalia of arms control quickly came to be seen as cumbersome, slow and ill-adapted to new security threats. The second Bush administration delivered the coup de grace. Strategic arms control has had its day, but it would be a mistake to throw the baby out with the bathwater.

• China and America? Trouble Ahead?

  Adam Ward

  If the frequent summitry and other exchanges among senior officials are anything to go by, the US-China relationship has become more cordial and constructive that at any time over the last decade. Certainly, it seems more harmonious than many spectators would have thought possible at the outset of the Bush administration in 2001, when Washington and Beijing eyed each other with disdain and suspicion. Viewed against the backdrop of these unpromising beginnings, the recent warming of bilateral ties would seem to be a substantial achievement. In reality, the relationship has over last two years become curiously disaggregated. On one level, Washington and Beijing have, for reasons for expediency, belaboured their common interest. Yet, on a more fundamental leve, both have been ware that their perspectives and interests have continued to diverge. A set of contentious policy challenges on the horizon mean that the cordial atmosphere is likely to turn sour rather sooner than Beijing Washington would have liked.

• China's Reaction to American Predominance

  Denny Roy

  How China reacts to America's dominant position in the Asia-Pacific is a critical issue for regional security now and in the foreseeable future. As a rising power that sees the United States as both a partner and a potential threat and is still substantially weaker than the US, China might adopt one of several possible strategies: balancing against American power; accommodation; or attempting to supplant America's leadership position. In fact, China's security policy includes elements of all three strategies. The accommodationist element, however, is likely to diminish if China's economic and political strength continue to grow as quickly as expected.

• Seeing North Korea Clearly

  Daniel A. Pinkston and Phillip C. Saunders

  North Korea's isolation makes it difficult to octain accurate information and develop the understanding necessary for an effective Korea policy. Policymakers sometimes compensate by using cognitive shortcuts that can lead to misperceptions and misunderstandings. Five main sources of US misunderstanding of North Korea area: linguistic barriers; ideological barries that distort interpretations of development; intellectual constructs that conceal important information; lack of imagination and a reluctance to acquire a deeper comprehension of the North Korean mindset; and deliberate misrepresentations for political or policy convenience. The resultant distorted picture of North Korea has produced confusion in Washington and contributed to a number of policy miscues and missed opportunities.

• US Intervention and Possible Iraqi Futures

  Toby Dodge

  Saddam Hussein ruled through the 'shadow state' a network of patronage and violence that transformed Iraqi society. For the United States to successfully break the shadow state and build a stable government, it has to change how it interacts with the Iraqi population. This would involve the move from despotic power, the deployment of military force to facilitate the state's survival, to infrastructural power, and the creation of a legal rational and legitimate state institutions that rule by consent. The only way to do this administratively and politically is to adopt a 'micro-management' approach. This would mean building state capacity and democratic institutions locally, from the ground up. By doing this, resentment and nationalist anger among the population could be reduced.

• The Moral Psychology of US Support for Israel

  Dana H. Allin and Steven Simon

  In their common sponsorship, along with Russia and the United Nations, of the so-called 'Road Map' to peace, Washington and Brussels have jointly denounced Palestinian terrorism, described the Israeli occupation of the West Bank and Gaza as legally and morally unsustainable, and lent explicit and official support to the establishment of a democratic Palestinian state. So much agreement is astonishing in the light of the radically different position taken by the US and its European allies from the 1960s until the 1990s. Still, the United States remains practically alone in its historically and emotionally charged support for Israel. This can motivate and justify robust engagement in the peace process. But moving it forward will require a degree of US engagement that will be daunting, given the dire security situation in Israel-Palestine and the constellation of political and emotional factors at play in the United States.

• NATO and its New Members

  Tim Edmunds

  NATO has had a major impact on defence reform in ten post-communist states that have either joined or been invited to join the Alliance. Through its own preconditionality and the motivating influence of membership, through technical advice and assistance and through propagating and spreading norm of behaviour, NATO has encourage accession candiates to consolidate their arrangements for the democratic, civilian control of armed forces and helped to shape the direction of their military reform processes. More widely, these first two waves of eastward enlargement illustrate that political goals have increasingly outpaced NATO's traditional military priorities. Indeed, the military contribution that the new members can make to the Alliance will inevitably be limited, but the significance of enlargement as a motivation for and recognition of post-communist democratisation and structural change remains considerable.

• The European Convention and EU Foreign Policy: Learning from Failure

  Steven Everts and Daniel Keohane

  The European Union's handling of the Iraq crisis was a self-inflicted disaster. But the signs are that the Europeans are learning from that failure. A more robust and self-confident EU foreign policy is emerging. The European Convention and its draft Constitution, was an important exercise in self-definition and institutional reform. Many of the proposed reforms — an European Council President, and EU Foreign Minister, a joined-up diplomatic service — should make the EU a more effective international actor. But institutional reforms will have little effect without a clearer sense of purpose. Hence the momentum behind the EU security strategy, sketching out a shared vision on the nature of today's threats and on the appropriate policy responses. The EU's stance on some of the key strategic issues — WMD proliferation, failed states, the rules governing the use of force — will determine whether the EU's new-found assertiveness will endure or degenerate, yet again, into internal divisions and inaction.

• From Pablo to Osama: Counter-terrorism from the War on Drugs

  Michael Kenney

  In wars on drugs and terrorism, states confront duanting adversaries: transnational networks of criminals and terrorists that carry out illegal activities, while avoiding government efforts to destroy them. These illicit enteprises share numberous similarities, including compartmentalised structures, flat decision-making hierarchies and an aptitude for organisational adaptation. While the US and its counter-terrosima partners have achieved substantial results against al-Qaeda, similarities among traffickers and terrorists, and lessons from two decades of war on drugs suggest a number of difficulties in dismantling terrorist networks. If policymakes hope to achieve lasting victory in the war on terror, they must move beyond a strategy based on leadership interdiction and devote greate diplomatic, political, and economic resources to addressing the 'demand side' of terrorism.

• SARS: A Warning

  Elizabeth M. Prescott

  The recent outbreaks of SARS and monkeypox have demonstrated severe weaknesses in the global public health infrastructure that are in urgent need of attention. If these limitations are not addressed, the intentional use of infectious disease as a weapon will be devastating. The international community must learn from the experience of natural outbreaks to improve early detection and response to emerging disease on a global basis. Minimising the impact of disease, of natural or deliberate origin, will save countless lives as well serve as a deterrent to future bio-terrorist acts. Much as a vaccine is designed to prime the immune system against a future microbial threat, these natural disease outbreaks should raise awareness of the need for enhanced and more comprehensive global public health surveillance and response.

Review Essay

• Taking the Lead

  Michael O'Hanlon

Book Reviews

• Open Network, Closed Regimes

  Shanthi Kalathil and Taylor C. Boas. Washington DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2003. $18.95. 215pp

  Andrew Rathmell

• Ambivalent Neighbors. The EU, NATO and the price of membership.

  Anatole Lieven and Dmitri Trenin (eds). Washington DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2003. $24.95. 331pp

  Antonio Missiroli

• Peace with Justice? War Crimes and Accountability in the former Yugoslavia

  Paul R. Williams and Michael P. Scharf. Lanham MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 2002. 323pp. $26.95

  James Gow

• Putin's Russia

  Lilia Shevtsova (Washington DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2003). $19.95. 285pp

  Kathryn Pinnick

• Turkish Foreign Policy in an Age of Uncertainty

  F. Stephen Larrabee and Ian O. Lesser. Santa Monica, CA: Rand, 2003. 263pp. $24.00

  Efraim Inbar

• India in the World Order: Searching for Major-Power Status

  Baldev Raj Nayar and T.V. Paul. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003. £16.95. 291pp

  Sumit Ganguly

• Superterrorism: Policy Responses

  Lawrence Freedman (ed.) (Oxford: Blackwell Publishing, 2002) £14.99, 178pp

  Garth Whitty

• The Congo from Leopold to Kabila: A People's History

  Georges Nzongola-Ntalaja. London, New York: Zed Books, 2002. 304 pp. $25.00

  Guy Martin