Survival

 

 

Autumn 2000. (Vol. 42 No. 3)

• Summaries

 

• Irreversible peace in Northern Ireland?

J Stevenson , IISS

Although it is a remarkable diplomatic achievement, the Good Friday Agreement could not have been reached without 'constructive ambiguity' about central issues concerning Northern Ireland's governance. Opinions on these issues - disarmament, police reform and the fundamental question of whether Northern Ireland stays British - remain as polarised as ever. Yet gains from the six-year peace process, the most significant of which is a wholesale reduction in terrorist violence, may be irreversible. The process has given legitimacy to the political representatives of former terrorists and accustomed them to using dialogue, rather than violence, to address tough political problems. Rather than any written agreement, this is the enduring accomplishment of the Northern Ireland peace process, and it should become the primary goal of peace processes elsewhere.

 

• The UN's Kingdom of East Timor

  J Chopra , Formerly Director of the International Relations Program, Brown University, Providence, RI, USA

  With its transitional administration in East Timor, the UN is exercising sovereign authority over a fledgling nation for the first time in its history. Such social and territorial control is an increasing trend in international interventions and aims to remedy the breakdown of failed states, to combat warring factions and to topple abusive warlords. But this control could evolve into another form of authoritarianism unless the transitional administrators themselves separate power structures and become accountable to the local population. Peace-maintenance will win legitimacy only if global governors lead by example. Thus far, the UN has not done so in East Timor.

   

• Sovereignty, intervention and peacekeeping: the view from Beijing

  B Gill and J Reilly , Foreign Policy Studies, The Brookings Institution, 1The George Washington University, WA, USA, The Brookings Institution

  For the Chinese leadership, defence of a 'thick' notion of sovereignty serves to enhance its legitimacy, deflect criticism of its domestic policies and to resist outside involvement in the Taiwan issue. Yet, since the People's Republic initially opened up in the 1970s, China's strict sovereign prerogatives have gradually eroded. Today, the nexus where defence of Chinese sovereignty meets the imperative of engaging the outside world defines both the limits and the possibilities of enmeshing China within international society. The challenge for the international community is to understand the dynamics of China's sovereignty-integration nexus and to identify policies that will strengthen Beijing's commitment to international peace and stability. In this regard, China's participation in UN peacekeeping operations is often overlooked as an area of interest.

   

• Nuclear power and global warning

  B van der Zwaan , Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM), Free University, Amsterdam, The Netherlands, Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University, USA

  Nuclear energy faces manifold problems, among the most important of which is unfavourable public opinion. But one powerful factor - global warming - remains in its favour. Fission, if considerably expanded, could contribute significantly to reducing carbon emissions. Over the longer term, this could be both feasible and desirable. Research and development in all non-fossil energy resources, including fission, should proceed apace. Improvements in the safeguards surrounding nuclear operations and non-proliferation must also be vigorously pursued and publicly explained both to improve safety and to enhance the public perception of nuclear energy. Over time, such initiatives may well be worth the effort.

   

• The Asian energy predicament

  RA Manning , Director of Asian Studies, Council on Foreign Relations, Washington DC, USA

  Asia already imports some 60% of its oil from the Middle East. Increasing Asian dependence on this volatile region is a growing concern for Asian governments that have hitherto viewed energy largely in strategic terms, that is, as one of the 'commanding heights' of the economy and a matter of fundamental national security. If this geostrategic mindset persists, Asia's thirst for oil could increase the likelihood of conflict over territory. Yet such a prophecy, though perhaps self-fulfilling, is hardly certain. Market forces have increasingly proven essential to resolving energy questions by spurring conservation, energy efficiency and the development of new oil and alternative fuel sources.

   

• Cyber-attacks and international law

  GD Grove, SE Goodman and SJ Lukasik , GD Grove Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC) and the Consortium for Research on Information Security and Policy (CRISP), Stanford University, USA, SE. Goodman International Affairs and Computing, Georgia Institute of Technology, GA, USA. SJ Lukasik Georgia Institute of Technology, GA, USA, CRISP Executive Committee

  Governments and critical infrastructures rely increasingly on network computing technologies and are thus ever more vulnerable to cyber-attacks. Responding to such attacks - whether through diplomatic or economic sanctions, cyber-counterattack, or physical force - raises legal questions. International customary law is not yet fully formed on this issue, but the UN Charter and the laws of armed conflict establish certain baseline rules. Countries with a stake in evolving legal standards for the use of force in information operations should be prepared to make hard choices. Such countries should aim not only to preserve their own security, but also to set legal precedents that balance the need to use a new kind of force against the considerable, untested risks of doing so.

   

• Making economic sanctions work

  C de Jonge Oudraat , Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington DC, USA

  The UN Security Council increasingly imposes economic sanctions to prevent, manage or resolve violent conflict. The political effectiveness of these measures has been limited and the humanitarian consequences have been severe, although unintended. Yet sanctions remain attractive for many policy-makers and their extensive use is unlikely to be abandoned. In fact, sanctions can be an effective policy instrument, but they must be properly implemented and part of a comprehensive coercive strategy that includes the threat of force. Many 1990s sanction regimes failed because they did not meet these two key conditions.

   

• NATO's mixed signals in the Caucasus and Central Asia

  R Bhatty and R Bronson , Cambridge Energy Research Associates, Cambridge, MA, USA, National Security Studies, Council on Foreign Relations, NY, USA

  NATO is expanding its presence in Central Asia and the Caucasus without any clear strategy concerning the Alliance's political goals and methods. Instead, individual members have pursued separate, and sometimes competing, interests and aims. In the absence of collective political guidance, NATO military planners have substituted bureaucratic temporisation for making hard decisions defining NATO's interests in the region and the limit of its reach. As a result, vague commitments and understandings have developed between NATO and its partner states in Central Asia and the Caucasus, most of which are little comprehended even among the parties themselves, and less so by external observers such as Russia, China and Iran.

   

• Will Europe's past be Asia's future?

  AL Friedberg , Princeton University, USA

  For the first time in the modern era, Asia is emerging as a distinct regional state system - a cluster of strong, prosperous, independent nations dealing intensively and continuously with one another in diplomatic, strategic and economic matters. Prior to the nineteenth century, geography and technology combined to keep these Asian interactions at a comparatively low level. During the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, the region was largely dominated by outside imperial powers, then divided by the Cold War. As the twenty-first century begins, Asia will take its place alongside Europe and North America as a leading centre of wealth and power. As this happens, the overriding strategic question concerns the nature of relations among these states. Is Asia, like Europe before it, destined to endure an interval of interstate rivalry and, perhaps, war? Or will the Asian states move directly to a protracted period of peace, prosperity and stability?