CIAO DATE: 03/04

International Affairs

October 2003

• Introduction: The Future of Europe and the Transatlantic Relationship  Julie Smith

  In her Introduction to this issue of International Affairs devoted to the future of Europe and the transatlantic relationship, Julie Smith highlights the challenges facing the West's major organizations—the European Union and NATO. The Convention on the Future of Europe, enlargement of both NATO and the EU, the euro debate, and the tensions in the transatlantic relationship are discussed in the context of the articles in these pages.

• The International Affairs Interview  Peter Hain and Martha Kearney

  In this the first of a regular series of interviews to appear in International Affairs, Peter Hain, Leader of the House of Commons, talks to Martha Kearney, Political Editor of BBC television's Newsnight about Britain's role in the Convention on the Future of Europe. He talks of the vision Europe can offer to the world, describing it as one of 'progressive internationalism...regulated by multilateral agreements', and the idea of Europe as a union of nation-states rather than a Brusselsbased superstate. Key issues facing Europe such as enlargement, qualified majority voting and security and defence are also included in this incisive discussion.

• Britain and the Convention on the Future of Europe  Anand Menon

  If the reaction from the British Conservative Party and the right-wing press were to be believed, it would be easy to think that the constitutional treaty produced by the European Convention represented a failure for Britain. This article takes issues with such claims. It illustrates, by tracing British involvement within the Convention from its inception to the finalization of the draft treaty, that the British Government succeeded remarkably well in ensuring that the document reflected its major policy preferences.

• The Euro: Faith Hope and Parity  Arthur I. Cyr

  The inauguration of the euro as the currency of the European Union is the most far-reaching step so far taken in the long-term movement for regional political and economic integration. The new money demonstrates that the initial customs union established by the Treaty of Rome has grown to such an extent that member states are willing to surrender control over their national central banks and currencies. Only three members of the EU have refused to join—Britain, Denmark and Sweden. Despite widespread skepticism, the euro so far has been a success. The new currency, while a dramatic innovation, is also congruent with financial dimensions that can be traced through the history of the European Community. The experience of inflation in the 1960s and 1970s was a powerful incentive to establish strong European central banking institutions. The euro is both derivative from and competitor with the US dollar, and American historical experience over the long term as well as foreign policies since the Second World War are germane to analysis. For Britain, remaining outside the euro zone so far has not brought negative consequences and may have been beneficial to the economy. For most member governments of the EU, the opportunity to pool resources through a regional currency understandably has been a persuasive incentive, especially given the enormous growth of private capital markets. The creation of the euro has been facilitated by the shifting nature of money. Currencies have changed from distinctive national components of the highly structured Bretton Woods system to relatively freely traded commodities, and the traditional distinctive characteristics of money have been blurred with the evolution of credit markets, financial instruments and technology. The fundamental test of the euro will occur when member states face differentiated political pressures to inflate economies in order to combat unemployment. To date, the European currency has been the latest confirmation of the insight of Jean Monnet and others to employ economic integration to reduce the likelihood of a resurgence of militarism and war.

• When should the Central Europeans Join EMU?  Jacek Rostowski

  This article first considers why central European countries wish to join EMU soon. The main reasons are the risk of macroeconomic instability they face outside the euro zone if they wish to grow quickly. At the same time, central Europe is highly integrated with regard to trade with EMU, so it is little exposed to asymmetric shocks that would require a realignment of exchange rates. Finally, it is argued that there is no cost in terms of slower growth from EMU accession, so that there is no trade-off, as has been claimed, between nominal convergence to EMU and real convergence to EU average GDP levels. Second, the article assesses whether central European accession to EMU would be disadvantageous to current members. It concludes that accession cannot increase inflationary pressure on existing EMU members, also as claimed, but that slow growing members of EMU might suffer increased unemployment, unless they increase the flexibility of their labour markets. Incumbent members may also be unwilling to share power with central Europeans in EMU institutions.

• America's Protégé in the East? The Emergence of Poland as a Regional Leader  Marcin Zaborowski and Kerry Longhurst

  Following the events of September 11 Poland has emerged as one of the key allies of the United States—arguably its protégé in east—central Europe. The close affinity of interests on security matters between the two states became even more apparent in Afghanistan and then more recently over Iraq, where Warsaw has proved to be a strong and highly vocal supporter of Washington's stance. The overall context to this is provided by the growing divergences between the US and Europe, but especially within Europe, towards the situation in Iraq, which has prompted endless commentary based around notions of 'old Europe' and 'new Europe' and 'American power and European weakness'. This article will reflect upon these debates and explore Poland's position within them by addressing the notion that Poland is becoming a regional leader. The 'instinctive' Atlanticism within Poland's strategic culture drives Warsaw's security policies and is evident across a range of examples. Focusing on the missile defence initiative and ESDP as key issues where there has been a clear set of interests between Poland and the US, it will be demonstrated that Warsaw has always opted for Atlantic as opposed to European solutions and institutions to meet its security needs. A question remains, however, as to whether Poland can continue to be America's protégé and whether Warsaw has the political will and capacity to assume the role required of it by the US, or a regional provider of security in the longer term. This article proposes that to assure this, Poland's eastern policies require not only a more focused and consistent line but also that its security thinking needs to be 'modernized' and should be led by a 'security' rather than a 'traditional defence' rationale reminiscent of the pre-1989 era.

• US–European Relations: Past and Future  Stanley Hoffmann

  In this revised text of a lecture delivered at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in June 2003, Stanley Hoffmann traces the history of America's close postwar alliance with western Europe. Out of the treaty in which America undertook to protect western Europe came the organization of NATO. Despite the difficulties and differences of opinion among its members in the early years— decolonization, German rearmament, Vietnam, US-French relations—the alliance survived and continued to survive after 1991 despite losing its main enemy, the Soviet Union. It then became a tool for managing relations between members and the newly liberated countries of central and eastern Europe and Russia. After the first Gulf War, however, NATO became a field for US- European relations, encompassing rivalry over approaches to eastern Europe, and cooperation in the Balkans. September 11 and the 'war on terrorism' marked the real turning point in the alliance and the subsequent war in Iraq in 2003 exposed deep divisions in the approach to international relations. Stanley Hoffmann concludes that it is still unclear how far Iraq has affected the substance of US foreign policy and its relations with Europe. It may be possible to predict, however, that the central importance of Europe for the US will remain under a cloud—'the days of relative harmony have not returned'.

• War in Iraq, Revolution in America  Strobe Talbott

  In this lecture in honour of John Whitehead, Strobe Talbott reflects on the history of the international system, the emergence of the nation-state and the role the US has played in the formation of post-Second World War international institutions. He draws a distinction between the typical Westphalian nation-state, exemplified in Europe, and the United States, a nation based on the 'exertion of political will and championship of political ideas'-a distinction that helps to account for the strain of 'exemplary exceptionalism'; in the history of US foreign policy. Turning to a dichotomy of approach in the foreign policy of the current Bush administration, the author draws attention to the continuation of a tradition of 'moral clarity' on the one hand and on the other hand the introduction of a new concept that saw the preeminence of American power reordering a dangerous world. He believes the Bush 'revolution' in foreign policy reached its peak with the Iraq war and that there is now hope the US will recommit itself to the international institutions severely damaged over the past two years and will begin a new era in which America takes a leading role within a multilateral framework.

• 9/11 and the Past and Future of American Foreign Policy  Melvyn P. Leffler

  Does the national security strategy of the Bush administration constitute a radical new departure or does it possess clear links to past American policies? Is the Bush strategy motivated by the perception of threat, the pursuit of power, or the quest for hegemony? This article argues that the policies of the Bush administration are more textured and more conflicted than either its friends or its foes believe. They are also less bold and less likely to offer enduring solutions. In fact, they constitute a surprising departure from the ways most former US administrations have dealt with 'existential' threats in the twentieth century. By championing a 'balance of power favouring freedom' and by eschewing the 'community of power' approach propounded by Woodrow Wilson, Bush and his advisers are charting a unilateralist course for times of crisis, a course neither so popular nor so efficacious as its proponents think. But the unilateralism is prompted by fears and threats that must not be dismissed or trivialized by critics of the administration.

• Review Article: A Liberal History of European Integration  Christopher Chivvis

  John Gillingham's voluminous new book chronicles the course of European integration from the 1950s to the present. It contains interesting accounts of a variety of important events, and has the merit of drawing attention to the European Union as a subject for serious historical scholarship. Some readers, however, may find certain of Gillingham's major arguments controversial, especially his insistence that integration has been and will always be primarily about economic liberalization.