|
|
|
|
International Affairs
January 2000
We are told that Kosovo marks a new era of humanitarian intervention, when promoting and protecting values will be reason enough for coercive military action. However, a review of the evidence, as outlined in this article, suggests that it was Western interests, rather than values, that led to the largely unintended bombing campaign. One can identify two objectives underlying NATO policy-one substantive and the other relating to image. It was the latter that determined the timing of NATO's response to the Kosovo crisis, which had such damaging consequences, many yet to be fully realized. Kosovo shared several characteristics with the Suez crisis that turned out to have been a watershed in the post-Second World War world; so, too, may Kosovo turn out to have been a watershed in the post-Cold War world.
The turn of the millennium has produced much thinking about the current direction of American foreign policy. In an interpretative essay on the broad patterns of American foreign relations during the twentieth century, Michael Dunne traces some recurrent themes in American diplomatic practice and its underlying ideologies. His conclusion is that the traditional introversion of American culture is likely to be projected abroad, as it has been in the past, by a rhetorical mixture of national and supranational idealism couched in the peculiar and self-referential discourse deriving from the earliest days of the Republic.
In 1949 the Swiss government convened a diplomatic conference to update international humanitarian law in the light of the tragic experiences of the Second World War. Although the proceedings were largely dominated by the fear that the coup in Prague, the blockade of Berlin and the Chinese civil war would lead to a third world war, the conference succeeded in adopting the four Geneva Conventions that are still in force today. This was a major breakthrough from a humanitarian point of view as well as a significant political success. However, in the 50 years that followed, the new Conventions were applied to circumstances that differed widely from those that their framers had in mind. Since the threat of nuclear annihilation prevented any direct and open confrontation between the superpowers, their rivalry led instead to a proliferation of internal conflicts along the fault-lines of the Cold War. What then was the significance of the new Geneva Conventions? What are the prospects for the future of international humanitarian law? These are some of the questions that deserve our attention as the twentieth century-scarred as it was by so many wars-givesway to the twenty-first.
This article is an edited version of the second C. Douglas Dillon Lecture on European-American relations delivered at Chatham House on 24 June 1999 by Joseph S. Nye Jr, in which he analyses future relations between Europe and the United States. Despite the lack of a mutual threat in the form of Soviet aggression, the author believes there is still enough common ground between the two for the relationship to be sustained. However, he is very much aware of current counter-arguments and acknowledges that the bickering will continue. Drawing on the works of Stephen Walt and Robert Blackwill, among others, Joseph Nye outlines where and why difficulties in the relationship could appear. He points to the areas of economics, culture, diplomacy and defence cooperation where potential rifts might occur and offers suggestions on ways to reduce the friction. His conclusion is optimistic: divorce is not in the offing.
In this edited version of the seventh John Vincent Memorial Lecture given at the University of Keele on 7 May 1999, James Mayall discusses the contested nature of international relations, the question of the democratization of international society, and the reasons for democracy's prominence in contemporary international relations. He asks how the impact of democracy and democratization on international society over the past ten years could be measured and whether the establishment of democratic values in national and international politics rests on particular cultural preconditions. He concludes that in the pursuit of international order useful modifications to the international system have been introduced; it is the components of that system that remain the problem.
The expansion of NATO and the enlargement of the EU will produce outside states in which perceptions and policies will be influenced by feelings of exclusion and isolation. Russia and Ukraine are two important examples. In Russia the sense of exclusion results from NATO expansion and it was exacerbated by the air strikes against Serbia. Although Ukraine also responded negatively to NATO's attack on Serbia, Ukrainian perceptions of exclusion are caused primarily by disappointment that EU membership is proving so difficult to attain. Based on elite interviews, opinion surveys and the analysis of focus group discussions, this article compares and contrasts the attitudes towards NATO and the EU in the two countries.
One year has elapsed since the European Monetary Union was created between eleven of the fifteen European Union member states. During 1999 the economic prospects for euroland have dramatically improved, with projected growth in 2000 and 2001 well above earlier expectations. This article argues that the recovery, by itself, cannot solve Europe's unemployment problem, neither can monetary union per se, despite its substantial benefits. The authors discuss these benefits and assess the current economic situation in Europe. They recommend a bold, coordinated approach, a growth pact for Europe, based on the three complementary legs: substantial tax cuts; an accommodating monetary policy; and structural reform. They discuss the conditions in which such a pact would be successful.
This article argues that the dominant paradigm for understanding and explaining north Korean domestic and international politics is in crisis. This 'securitization' paradigm is divided into its %lsquo;bad' and 'mad' elements and is derived from the crudest of Cold War politics and theories. It no longer provides a useful frame of reference for international policy-makers having to 'do business' with north Korea. The intervention of the humanitarian community in north Korea since 1995 has not only shown the obsolescence of this paradigm but also has provided the foundation for two alternative approaches-the 'sad' and the 'rational actor' conceptual framework. The article concludes by arguing for the utility of a historicized and contextualized rational actor model in offering a realistic underpinning for international policies which seriously wish to promote peace, stability and freedom from hunger on the Korean peninsula. South Korea's 'sunshine policy' is cited as one example of such an approach.
Review Articles