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International Affairs
April 2001
The international negotiations on climate change in November 2000 in The Hague collapsed amid broad media coverage. Getting the talks rapidly back on track failed and they will now resume in Bonn in July 2001. In the meantime, however, the political landscape has changed: there is a new US administration, and new scientific conclusions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have been released. The introduction and overview to this issue of International Affairs introduces five articles, all of which agree that the 1997 Kyoto Protocol on climate change can be saved. The rescue can be made either through fundamental changes to the Protocol itself or by learning the lessons of the failed round of negotiations in The Hague. On the basis of an assessment of the five articles, the author proposes his own solution-to un-bundle the issues that had accumulated in the three years since Kyoto. The author believes that some of the key developing-country Articles, dealing with issues such as adaptation, capacity-building, and financial and technology transfer, can be dealt with outside the pressure of the targets and timetables. Decisions on Kyoto's emission targets, mechanisms and some aspects of 'sinks' would be made easier without the 'inter- connectedness' with the 'developing-country issues'. It might even be possible, he suggests, to negotiate some deals on targets within smaller groups of countries such as the EU, or those countries that have targets, the Annex B countries.
This article analyses the meeting of the Sixth Conference of the Parties to the Climate Change Convention that took place at The Hague in November 2000. Billed as the summit that would put the final touches to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, the meeting adjourned without reaching substantive conclusions. The authors explain what happened, underlining salient features that have led to the current impasse. They suggest that agreement is still possible if major players understand the need to work within the structures, institutions and processes created by the Convention and Protocol as a result of the ten years of hard negotiations. Intransigence, an overloaded agenda, abandonment of familiar procedures and, above all, an inability to consider creative ways of forging common positions from divergent national positions are some of the lessons that need to be learnt.
International climate policy is one of the most fascinating issues in foreign policy, yet in recent years it has become one of the most contentious. The failure of the conference in The Hague revealed, among other things, strongunderlying rifts in the transatlantic relationship. As the self-acclaimed worldleader, the United States is not in a position to exert leadership in this vital area owing to a mixture of constitutional constraints and an ever-growing cultural dependence on fossil fuels such as oil and gas. It therefore falls to the European Union to take up this challenge. This will require careful coalition building with the rest of the world as well as confidence in the ability of Europe to develop a united position, to stick to that position and to translate the rules of the Kyoto Protocol into stringent domestic climate policy. The climate change regime is at a crossroads. At the resumed COP-6 con-ference, the Parties must decide whether to continue the process under theassumption 'that global problems require global solutions' or whether to turn to the more regional concept of 'think globally, act locally'. In either case, steering climate policy in this century on to a successful path will require the skills and dedication not only of natural scientists and technology developers, but also of those in the foreign policy community.
In November 2000, the Sixth meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP-6) ended in disarray and recrimination. The objective of the meeting was to agree on the details of the definitions and rules underlying the Kyoto Protocol negotiated in 1997. Unfortunately, the issues at stake were not small ones but points of principle and substance on which agreement had previously proved impossible, not only in Kyoto but in the negotiating sessions that followed. COP-6 is to be reconvened in July 2001 in the hope of resolving the differences, but the outlook is not favourable because positions appear to remain far apart. As a result, it is not clear what directions the international negotiations might take next. This article explores various paths, and draws the conclusion that several years may be required before a necessary revision of the Kyoto rules and targets can be undertaken. In the interim, progress on climate issues should not stop, and the authors suggest a set of efforts to be pursued, even while the search for a common global response continues. These efforts include pursuing domestic action to reduce emissions, maintaining activities already begun under the Framework Convention, and, in as much as possible, seeking agreement on consistent accounting rules.
The lion's share of media and governmental commentary on the recent Sixth Conference of the Parties (COP-6) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change has focused on rifts between the EU and the 'Umbrella Group' of countries, including the United States, Canada and Japan, and has led many observers to speculate that intergovernmental negotiations on climate change may have irretrievably broken down. Limiting the focus solely to political difficulties with specific issues, however, emphasizes only part of the story and takes no account of the complex context in which the international negotiations are embedded. This approach does not give sufficient credit to the growing momentum gathering outside the negotiating halls. This article examines recent and rapid changes in attitude and awareness among non-governmental groups-including business and industry, environmental groups and the media-on the issue of global climate change, and the impact these changes have had on the negotiating process and the overall climate change debate. Together these groups provide encouraging signs of a shift in public opinion and ample proof that the failure of the talks in The Hague does not signal the end of the road.
Climate change is unusual compared with most environmental issues in the extent to which it has become accepted among orthodox policy institutions and public-and private-sector organizations. The authors explore the conditions that have led to the establishment of an epistemic community that brings together a broad array of actors, including the various NGOs, and the operational dimensions that define the participation of NGOs within the community. An epistemic community does not imply conformity of opinion or approach but allows for differentiation in terms of how its members construct the problem, and their objectives, core beliefs and favoured responses to climate change. Three broad styles of engagement through which NGOs contribute to this debate are identified: developing creative policy solutions, knowledge construction, and lobbying or campaigning. It should be noted that the authors refer primarily to development or environmental NGOs (ENGOs), though they do discuss business NGOs at a few points.
South Africa's peaceful transition is evolving during a period in which spectacular twentieth-century achievements have greatly improved life for one-fifth of the world's population. These are being gradually eclipsed, however, by the impact of social and economic forces that relegate four-fifths of the world's population to increasingly insecure, miserable and impoverished lives. South Africa's negotiated revolution, which has allowed it to move from the pariah status of apartheid to that of a fledgling democracy, exemplifies the paradigm shift required for global progress towards a more just and peaceful world. The HIV/AIDS pandemic, a major threat to South Africa, the African continent and many others around the world, is used in this article as a window through which to view the prospects for the long-term social success of South Africa's transition. It is also used as a mirror to reflect the world in which such a disease could emerge and spread pervasively. The explanatory links between exploitative global economic forces and the emergence of threats to lives are considered, in order to illuminate new pathways towards global progress in which respect for human rights will be further consolidated through promotion of solidarity, interdependence and social justice.
he end of apartheid has precipitated rapid rethinking of South Africa's position in relation to the rest of Africa and the global arena. Whereas a substantial literature already exists on the country's evolving post-apartheid foreign policy, this article offers one of the first critical analyses of its emerging external economic relations. Although clearly the economic giant of the Southern African Development Community, South Africa does not perform as well on all economic and social indicators as many people, especially South Africans, believe. South African businesses' perception of, and experiences in, the rest of Africa are assessed in relation to emerging patterns of trade and investment there. Selected advertisements and associated imagery deployed by firms in support of their strategies are analysed in the context of domestic transformation and the opening of new horizons abroad. South African foreign direct invest-ment (FDI) is increasingly diversified, both sectorally and geographically, although large firms dominate the profile. South African-based transnational corporations are also becoming increasingly influential global players. FDI and development aid inflows to South Africa, and in relation to the rest of Africa, are analysed and their implications explored. Far Eastern investment rose fast as part of a growing global inflow until 1997/8; more recent figures are disappointing. This reflects political and security concerns, as well as vulnerability to rapid flow reversal in the increasingly important portfolio investment market.
Review Articles
This article seeks to uncover the extent to which our ways of understanding contemporary Africa are influenced by our national (historical, cultural, political, intellectual) traditions through an examination of the influential French journal Politique Africaine, whose twentieth anniversary falls this year. In a wide-ranging review article that discusses in detail the 1999 issues of Politique Africaine but is informed by a consideration of the 'deep history' of that journal, the author argues that the French Africanist political scientists whose views appear in the journal are somewhat reluctant to open up to some of the new analysis of Africa available today.