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CIAO DATE: 06/06
January 2006
Contributors
Hegemony, liberalism and global order: what space for would-be great powers? ANDREW HURRELL
This article, and the four that follow, consider some of the ways in which China, Russia, India and Brazil have responded both to US hegemony and to the changing character of international society. This article sets out some of the major analytical questions that emerge when thinking about the foreign policy options of these countries and some of the principal conceptual and theoretical categories within which those questions may be usefully framed. The first section examines the reasons for taking these countries as a group. The second section provides a brief overview of two of the most common theoretical perspectives from which the systemic pressures on these countries have been understood. The third considers their actual and potential strategies and options under five headings: their status as regional powers; their behaviour within and towards international institutions; their relations with the United States; collaboration among them and evidence for the possible emergence of balancing behaviour; and the links between economic development and foreign policy.
Brazil as an intermediate state and regional power: action, choice and responsibilities MARIA REGINA SOARES DE LIMA, MÔNICA HIRST
Since the early years of the twentieth century, Brazil's major foreign policy aspiration has been to achieve international recognition based upon the belief that it should assume its 'natural' role as a 'big country' in world affairs. Although the bases for an autonomous foreign policy have become more restricted in the post-Cold War period, Brazil still seeks to preserve an independent voice within the international community and a certain level of independent capacity to determine its actions. In addition, the country has demonstrated a clear intention of wanting to expand the roles that it plays and the responsibilities that it assumes in regional politics, in Third World agendas and in multilateral institutions. As democracy deepens its roots within the country, Brazil has attempted to link an increasingly activist stance in world affairs with political support at home based upon a more active partisan involvement in foreign policy. In this context, the present government's fight against poverty and unequal income distribution at home and its assertive and activist foreign policy can be viewed as two sides of the same coin. In this article the authors provide an overview of the core features of Brazilian foreign policy, focusing upon four aspects: (i) the instrumental nature of Brazilian foreign policy and its close relationship with the country's economic and development objectives; (ii) the commitment of Brazil to multilateralism; (iii) the growing importance for Brazil of regional politics and security; and (iv) the recent evolution of Brazil's relations with the United States. The conclusion reviews the main challenges facing Brazil and the difficulty of matching increased ambition with concrete results.
The 'R' in BRICs: is Russia an emerging power? S. NEIL MACFARLANE
The concept of emerging powers presupposes several features shared by the states in question including regional preponderance, aspiration to a global role and the contesting of US unipolarity. This article assesses the role of Russia as an emerging power. It asks how Russians interpret the international system, what kind of system they would prefer, what they are trying to do in the current system and why, and how these considerations affect their relations with the US hegemony, other centres of power such as the EU, and other emerging powers. The author discusses the structural, liberal and regional interpretations of state behaviour and how they relate to the Russian model, arguing that Russia's policy is strongly affected by its domestic economic and political context. Russia is highly responsive to trends in the former Soviet Union and regions it perceives to be in its own space (e.g. EU and NATO Europe and north-east Asia). In the larger international system, Russia's approach is a mix of partnership or acquiescence on matters of vital interest to the hegemonic power, and more competitive behaviour on issues deemed central to Russian but peripheral to US interests. The article concludes that Russia is not an emerging power in the conventional sense. Its foreign policy is dominated by efforts to reverse the decline of the 1980s and 1990s. This entails fostering international conditions conducive to allowing reconsolidation without external hindrance. Its second major priority is regional: to restore Russian influence over the former Soviet states. In essence, Russian policy aims to limit further losses and promote conditions that will allow it to re-emerge as a great power.
Peculiar chauvinism or strategic calculation? Explaining the negotiating strategy of a rising India AMRITA NARLIKAR
India is finally on the rise. It is increasingly recognized as an 'emerging power' and a 'pivotal state', and receives invitations to the major fora for international negotiations (such as the G8, or small group consultations within the WTO) that are commensurate with this recognition. Interesting, however, belying all predictions and often at considerable cost to itself, even the rising India continues to adhere to features of its old, Third Worldist, defensive style of diplomacy. This article examines the reasons why Indian negotiators show such willingness to 'Just Say No' across international negotiations. It focuses on India's negotiation strategies in the regimes of trade and nuclear non-proliferation. The article argues that the sources of India's nay-saying have deeper roots than accounts of bureaucratic politics and domestic interest groups would suggest. It also analyzes some recent changes in India's negotiating positions, and argues that it is still too early to speculate on how meaningful or longlasting these changes might be. Finally, the article identifies the conditions under which India's negotiating strategies might change from its traditional nay-saying to a more proactive and easier engagement with the developed world.
Chinese strategies in a US-hegemonic global order: accommodating and hedging ROSEMARY FOOT
China's economic, political and military influence has been increasing at a time when the United States, as sole superpower, dominates the international order. This article outlines Chinese elite perspectives on the current global order and shows not only how these perceptions have affected China's policies towards the United States, but also how they have influenced China's regional and global policies more broadly. It argues that variants of realist logic that interpret Chinese behaviour as a form of balancing are not particularly helpful, and do not capture the essence of Chinese strategies that are underpinned by an overwhelming focus on its domestic development needs. The article posits that Chinese leaders have accepted that they operate in a unipolar order and have chosen not to stick out for negotiating positions that the United States would see as seriously detrimental to its interests. However, Beijing couples this accommodating approach with policies designed to ensure that, were relations seriously to deteriorate with Washington, China could draw on deepened regional and global ties to thwart any US effort to interrupt its domestic objectives. China's hope is that a more 'democratic' international order will emerge, which means not multipolarity as such but a 'concert of great powers system' that will operate to forge multilateral cooperation among the major states.
'Quacking like a duck'? Bush II and presidential power in the second term DAVID HASTINGS DUNN
It seems a truism of American politics that second presidential terms are destined to be less successful than the period of office which they follow and yet there is very little academic analysis as to why this is the case. Whether there are inherent or structural features of the US political system that unduly affects second-term presidencies and what impact these features might have on the remainder of the Bush administration is the subject of this article. While the impact of this phenomenon is analysed in general, particular attention is focused on the effect of American foreign policy since the Bush presidency, because of Iraq, this subject will ultimately determine the success or failure of the second term. This focus also reflects the fact that second-term administrations tend to be dominated by a focus on foreign policy. The article argues that despite being returned to power with a considerable number of political advantages compared with previous presidents at this stage of their tenure, the Bush administration is already displaying many of the characteristics of an underachieving second term. The article consists of three sections: part one examines the presidential record and analyses the contention that second terms are somehow different; part two sets out the reasons that might account for this factor; and part three applies these factors to the Bush administration to see which of these features apply to the present incumbent and thus what can be expected for the remainder of his second term in office until January 2009.
No pain, no gain? Torture and ethics in the war on terror ALEX J. BELLAMY
Is the use of torture ever justified? This article argues that torture cannot be justified, even in so called ticking bomb cases, but that in such extreme situations it may be necessary. In those situations, judgements about whether the use of torture is legitimate must balance the imminence and gravity of the threat with the need to prevent future occurrences of torture and maintain a normative environment that is hostile to its use. The article begins by observing that the use of torture and/or cruel and degrading treatment has become a core component of the global war on terror. It tests the claim that the use of coercive interrogation techniques does not constitute torture, showing that similar arguments were levelled by both the British and French governments in relation to Northern Ireland and Algeria respectively and found wanting. It then evaluates and rejects Dershowitz's claim for the legalization of torture and the more limited claim that torture may be permissible in ticking bomb scenarios. In the final section, the article questions how we might maintain the prohibition on torture while acknowledging that it may be necessary in some hypothetical cases.
Shared sovereignty and the politics of peace: evaluating the EU's 'catalytic' framework in the eastern Mediterranean OLIVER P. RICHMOND
There has been a consistent failure on the part of international actors over the past four decades to resolve the Cyprus problem. The EU framework, heralded as a catalyst, has failed so far to bring the two sides together, despite the significant advantages it possesses in linking resolution of the Cyprus problem with the Turkish ambition to join the EU. Cyprus has always been a testing ground for experimental approaches to dealing with conflict, and what may well emerge after the failure of the Annan Plan in 2004 is a form of 'shared sovereignty' where important governance functions that remain contested are undertaken by the UN and EU Commission. Furthermore, the EU framework has led to the Cyprus problem becoming a catalyst for Turkish accession. While very controversial, these avenues offer the opportunity for the international community to accept the political and interventionary nature of the 'peace' they prescribe.
The limits of objective interests ROBERT CRYER
Jack L. Goldsmith and Eric A. Posner are influential academics in American debates on international law. Their recent book, The limits of international law, is appraised in this review article. It discusses the exclusion in their analysis of the possibility that states have a real or perceived interest in complying with international law per se. It explains that this is at odds with the authors' subjective approach to state interests, and essentially guarantees their conclusion that international law compliance is solely instrumental. Furthermore, the article discusses the problem that the authors fail to engage with relevant scholarship that provides a counterpoint to theirs, in particular with regard to constructivism. On the basis of these critiques the review concludes that the book is flawed and cannot be considered to have made its case.
On comparing Nazism and Stalinism DAVID WEDGWOOD BENN
This article discusses Richard Overy's book comparing the regimes of Hitler and Stalin. The book seeks not just to describe, but also to explain the way the two systems functioned. With this in view the book compares them on a detailed topic-by-topic basis and recognizes that the two systems were in important ways fundamentally different, while concluding that both based their power not just on the personality of the leader, but also on substantial popular support. The reviewer argues, however, that although the book contains valuable information and insights, it may nevertheless be a little too ready to squeeze the two systems into the same mould. Nazism was a uniquely malignant phenomenon not merely because of its crimes, but because of its ideas, which embraced far more than just racism. The reviewer argues that given the unique evil of Nazism, it cannot properly be likened to anything else.
Books reviewed in this article:
International law and organization
Conflict, security and armed forces
Politics, democracy and social affairs
Ethnicity and cultural politics
Political economy, economics and development
Energy and environment
History
Europe
Russia and Eurasia
Sub-Saharan Africa
Asia and Pacific
North America
Latin America and Caribbean