Pacific Affairs: An International Review of Asia and the Pacific

Volume 76, No. 4

 

China and Southeast Asia: Asymmetry, Leadership and Normalcy
By Brantly Womack

 

Abstract

Despite remarkable growth in China's capacities relative to Southeast Asia during the reform era, their relationship has vastly improved. Increasing interdependence is part of the explanation, but interdependence between asymmetric partners can lead to hedging and balancing as well as to cooperation. Here the argument is made that the quality of China's regional diplomatic leadership has been decisive, complemented by the cautious deference of Southeast Asia. Reform era diplomacy has created a general situation of normalcy between China and Southeast Asia. Although normalcy creates a momentum favoring cooperation, the importance of leadership makes current trends vulnerable to changes in leadership direction. To the extent that Sino-US rivalry increases, the conditions of normalcy will be more difficult to maintain.