Pacific Affairs: An International Review of Asia and the Pacific

Volume 72, No. 4

 

Assessing the Risks of Conflict in the PRC-ROC Enduring Rivalry
By Brian Job, André Laliberté And Michael Wallace

 

Abstract

This paper focuses on two dimensions of the PRC-ROC enduring rivalry: the perceptual uncertainty that pervades decision making and interaction between these two actors, and the extent and nature of their respective military build-up. In these two critical respects the contemporary PRC-ROC rivalry exhibits symptoms common to situations that carry a higher risk of violent conflict. The paper first points to evidence showing that destabilizing military build-up in the context of ongoing disputes characterized by uncertainty are more likely to lead to war. The paper then documents that factional infighting in the PRC and the ROC increase opportunities for mutual misperception and mistrust within and between the two actors. The paper finally demonstrates that both sides have recently acquired weapons that tend to be destabilizing because their deployment reduces decision time regarding their use, shortens warning time, extends offensive reach, and increases the probability of escalation into war, errors in judgement, or accidental use.