Pacific Affairs: An International Review of Asia and the Pacific

Volume 73, No. 4

 

North Korea's Challenge of Regime Survival: Internal Problems and Implications for the Future
By Scott Snyder

 

Abstract

Many analysts have predicted that North Korea would not survive the loss of its Communist allies without undertaking economic and political reform, yet North Korea has defied the "natural laws" of the politics of transition to the post-cold war era by clinging to survival. The paper outlines how concerns about North Korea's collapse influenced the policy direction and response of the two Koreas and their neighbours, and analyzes the critical factors likely to determine the sustainability of the North Korean regime, including North Korea's continued economic decline during the 1990s; the North Korean famine; refugee flows; the energy crisis; the external security environment, including the impact of U.S. and Chinese policies toward North Korea; and prospects for political or military instability in Pyongyang. Despite North Korea's recent opening to the international community, the North Korean leadership still faces potentially dangerous political risks that must be overcome for the North Korean system to survive.