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The National Interest
China's Yugoslav Nightmare
Christopher Marsh and Nikolas K. Gvosdev
Abstract
06.01.2006
Meeting with journalists on April 7, Assistant Secretary of State Dan Fried noted that the Bush Administration supports efforts "to negotiate arrangements for Kosovo's final status this year." While Fried went on to stress that the United States has no position on the outcome of final-status negotiations, the mood in Washington--especially in Congress--is to support full independence for the province; in January 2005, Representatives Henry Hyde (R-IL) and Tom Lantos (D-CA) introduced House Resolution 24, in which "independence from Serbia" was described as "the only viable option" for the province's future.
Of course, other states (and secession-minded territories) are eagerly awaiting the outcome of the Kosovo question. What sort of a precedent will de facto if not de jure independence for Kosovo establish for other parts of the world that seek independence? And how will states that are seeking to hold together fragile multiethnic societies react to such a precedent?1 Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov raised these questions in an interview in the Slovak newspaper Pravda in April, arguing against any "hasty" decision on Kosovo.
One area where many Western commentators remain in the dark is what stance Beijing plans to adopt on this issue, even though the People's Republic of China, as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council, would have to ratify any final settlement. The prevailing attitude among American observers is that China has little real interest in Kosovo; paraphrasing British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain, they assert that China would not risk a clash with the West "for the people of a far away country of whom we know little."