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The National Interest
Warming to Climate Change
Paul J. Saunders and Vaughan C. Turekian
Abstract
06.01.2006
A VITAL challenge for all G-8 members in varying ways, energy is an essential agenda item at the group's July 15-17 summit in St. Petersburg. This year's focus on energy security--coinciding with Russia's 2006 G-8 presidency--is not accidental. Faced with increasing questions about its conduct in the United States and Europe, Moscow correctly understands that its vast energy resources are its principal claim to membership in a group where some prominent American politicians--notably Senator John McCain (R-AZ)--no longer welcome Russian participation. In the eyes of many, energy is one of relatively few areas where the Kremlin can bring something positive to the table. (Of course, after the Russian government's poor handling of a price dispute with Ukraine at the beginning of the year, leading to disruptions of Russian gas supplies to Western Europe, not everyone would agree.)
It seems, however, that few G-8 members will likely be inclined at this summit to try again to engage Washington on U.S. international climate policy, given the failure last year of British Prime Minister Tony Blair in leveraging the political capital he thought he had amassed vis-a-vis the United States to convince President Bush to sign on to one of his signature issues. But a lack of continued focus on climate at the G-8 would be a mistake: It is inextricably linked to any discussion of energy security and should be a key consideration in energy policy decisions.
After all, the increasing global demand for energy--coupled with skyrocketing prices--has an obvious major impact on economic growth. Instability (of different types) in key energy producing regions plays a significant role in shaping important foreign policy decisions. Through the creation of greenhouse gases that trap heat in the Earth's lower atmosphere rather than allowing it to radiate into space, the production and consumption of energy also has a profound impact on the global climate, which may in turn substantially affect economies and lives.
And sooner than many think, Washington may be prepared to adopt a more pragmatic--and more constructive--set of domestic and international policies on climate change. The policies the United States will likely consider would almost certainly disappoint die-hard climate activists--and indeed anyone who pins hope on the Kyoto Protocol's target-and-timetable model of greenhouse-gas reduction-but they could ultimately make a very substantial contribution to addressing climate change.
THUS FAR, the Bush Administration has rejected the Kyoto approach of negotiated limits on greenhouse gas emissions on the basis that there is considerable scientific uncertainty about the precise impact of human activity and the effects of particular concentrations of the gases in the atmosphere. As a result, the administration argues, Kyoto-style limits impose steep economic costs without necessarily affecting further climate change. Instead, the administration contends that new low- or zero-emission energy technologies are necessary to arrest and reverse the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and emphasizes its investments in research on technologies like clean coal, fuel cells, a next-generation nuclear reactor and fusion power.