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The National Interest
The Global Oil Rush
Robert C. McFarlane
Abstract
06.01.2006
America cannot depend upon a finite supply of hydrocarbons located in unstable regions of the world for its energy needs. And without energy, economies collapse.
Consider the fate of Georgia. At the time of the breakup of the Soviet Union, the republic was considered to have one of the strongest economies of the USSR, with a prosperous agricultural sector, a strong industrial base and an entrepreneurial culture. Civil war and political strife helped to weaken the economy, but successive energy crises caused both by Georgia's inability to pay for energy and periodic cut-offs of supplies delivered painful shocks to Georgia's energy-intensive sectors. By 2003 the country's income was a scant 40 percent of its 1991 level, with some 52 percent of the population living below the poverty line.
Energy independence will not occur overnight. We need at least twenty years to move the United States toward full-scale deployment of alternative sources of energy that can help to ensure true energy security. Brazilian ethanol and Russian gas could help us to buy the time we need and ameliorate the costs of the transition.