The National Interest
Spring 2002

Kaplan's War

by Mark Blitz

 

. . . [Robert] Kaplan's realism begins by looking at, not away from, facts and trends. The facts with which he is most concerned are those that challenge and will continue to challenge the United States in parts of what used to be called the Third World: growing populations (especially of young men), significant unemployment, ungovernable cities, radical religions, and easily producible weapons of mass destruction. After the destruction of the World Trade Center it is less likely than before that these facts will be ignored or downplayed, but it is still altogether possible that we will underestimate their continuing salience. A second set of facts concerns American power in the world. The United States is unrivaled, but not all-powerful. We cannot intervene in every place to which moral concerns might drive us. We are subject to the realities of human self-interest and fear, and to geographical and historical constraints as well. We cannot escape some of the ways war must be fought--"if our soldiers cannot fight and kill at close range, our status as a superpower is in question", writes Kaplan--but we are also subject to technological change and to unconventional military asymmetries. While international law and organizations are becoming more powerful (in some areas), for the foreseeable future keeping the peace will depend on our own strength, interests, intentions and will. These facts form the base for understanding how we must conduct ourselves--namely, realistically. This means that our approach must be guided by the "anxious foresight" that Kaplan finds in Hamilton, Madison and most other thinkers he discusses, as well as in statesmen such as George Marshall. We must be modest in our self-regard at moments of victory, cautious and when necessary manipulative with rivals, and restrained with our friends and those whom, however silently, we control. . . .