The National Interest
Spring 2001

Riding the Tiger

by Henry Rowen

 

. . . There has been no military use of atomic weaponry since 1945, and there is but one notable exception—that by Iraq—to the non-use of chemical agents. As for the spread of the bomb, the number of countries that could make nuclear weapons today if they so desired (probably around fifty) is far greater than the number that actually has them (eight, or nine if North Korea has enough readily fissionable material). Similarly, the number of countries that possess rockets that can travel at least several hundred miles is much lower than the number capable of producing them.

Henry Sokolski observes in Best of Intentions, however, to attribute this state of affairs to our specific non-proliferation policies would be a mistake. Many factors contributed to it, including alliances, pressures and inducements applied by the United States and others, and domestic politics. NATO and the formation of the European Community, for example, ended all major military rivalries in Western Europe. The Central Europeans could not have their own nuclear weapons while incorporated in the Soviet empire. The ending of South Korea's and Taiwan's weapons programs in the 1970s came from quiet U.S. pressure. And South Africa's white government got rid of its nuclear weapons of its own accord. . . .