The National Interest
Winter 2000

Extracts from Colombia: Crossing a Dangerous Threshold

by Brian Michael Jenkins

 

. . . Colombians refer to one of the bloodier periods of their bloody twentieth century as La Violencia–the Violence–as if the violence were not a consequence of Colombia's political conflicts or culture, but rather a malevolent, independent actor. Violence in Colombia sometimes does seem to be a Goya-etched monster whose appetite for corpses cannot be sated or suppressed. Neither repeated efforts to negotiate settlements among the warring parties nor mere weariness of the bloodshed can end it. Colombia's scholars probe its pathology. National commissions are appointed to examine it. Creative and complicated political contraptions are devised to contain it. But there is no simple or single explanation for it and, so far, no redemption from it.

Colombia confronts a host of Marxist guerrillas, private armies, criminal gangs and hired guns. The current guerrilla wars have killed an estimated 35,000 people. In the last few years, the paramilitaries have accounted for a growing share of this violence. These are private militias, initially organized as self-defense units and financed by landowners, that have worked with Colombia's army to destroy the guerrillas and their supporters. The paramilitaries appear, however, to be evolving into more autonomous actors, financing themselves through drug trafficking, cooperating with government security forces where convenient, but pursuing their own economic and political goals.

The bulk of the violence is not related to politics or to drugs. Sicarios, young hoodlums who can be hired to murder for a few pesos, along with ordinary people steeped in Colombia's violent culture, do most of the killing. They have made Colombia one of the most violent countries in the world. In addition to those killed in the guerrilla wars, approximately 30,000 people are murdered each year, giving Colombia an annual homicide rate of nearly 100 per 100,000. To get an idea of its national impact, applying Colombia's murder rate to the U.S. population would make a quarter million murders a year–year after year. Almost every Colombian has been personally touched by the violence. Since fewer than 15 percent of deaths can be attributed to the guerrilla fighting, ending those wars and reining in the paramilitaries would still leave Colombia a very violent place, even if all the factions and fronts put down their guns.

To the murders and the guerrilla war killings add the kidnappings, which in Colombia have reached industrial scale. In 1982, 19 kidnappings were reported in the country. Today the number reported each year runs into the thousands, and some estimate the unreported total to be much higher still. The fortunate ones are ransomed. The remainder are killed, or at least never reappear. Ransoms provide a major source of revenue for the guerrillas. Everybody with money who does not pay for protection is a target, and nearly every family of means has at least one member who has been held hostage. Drug-financed private death squads called "Death to Kidnappers" were created in reaction to the guerrillas, but they expanded their operations to target left-wing supporters and other persons regarded as troublesome by the traffickers-turned-conservative landlords. Criminal gangs also engage in kidnappings, as on occasion the drug traffickers themselves have done. When he was running for mayor of Bogot, Colombia's current president, Andres Pastrana, himself was kidnapped and held for a week by the "Extraditables", a name adopted by drug lords facing extradition.

Amazingly, until recently this degree of violence has not prevented political, social and economic progress in Colombia. Colombia's democratic institutions remain intact; its new constitution decentralizes power and brings more people into the political process than ever before. Its literacy rate is one of the highest in Latin America, while its forty universities are full. An impressive number of women are enrolled in higher education and serve in public office. Colombian businessmen are entrepreneurial and competitive. Colombia has the fourth-largest economy in Latin America and is the only country in the region never to have defaulted on its debt. There almost seem to be two Colombias: a sophisticated South American Milan attached to a brutal South American Congo.

Washington's Intervention

The U.S. government's planned assistance package to Colombia combines a legitimate effort to assist a beleaguered South American democracy with America's dubious strategy in its "war" on drugs. Cloaking efforts to reverse a deteriorating security situation in Colombia with talk about combating the drug trade is, presumably, a way of engaging an apathetic American public. But such political chicanery blurs our objectives and muddles our thinking. It is not surprising that, among Americans, there persists an appalling ignorance of Colombia's hellishly complicated realities. The vicious mix of guerrilla armies, private militias, drug traffic, deep-rooted corruption and endemic violence bewilders and dismays even many Colombians themselves.

Clearly, Colombia deserves U.S. assistance. A long-time ally of the United States, it has strategic importance in the hemisphere and is an important economic partner. Its democratic institutions have survived extraordinary stress. It is also the major source of the illegal drugs consumed here. American debates should put aside politically popular notions that defy evidence–including irrelevant comparisons with Vietnam–and focus instead on the important questions: What are our objectives in Colombia, and what is the best way to achieve them? Are we as a nation willing to stick to a commitment that will certainly exceed the $1.3 billion currently planned, and probably will take us far beyond the four-year parameter of Plan Colombia?

Increased involvement in Colombia's internal conflicts will intensify debate here about the U.S. strategy in the war on drugs. That in itself would not be a bad thing. If viewed as it has been billed–a measure to increase Colombia's capacity to suppress the drug trade–the planned assistance package represents a significant shift of drug war resources to source country control. Unfortunately, study after study has shown this to be the least effective way of reducing domestic drug consumption. Helicopters and crack battalions will project government power into now inaccessible areas, but it is naive at best to believe that this will suppress the supply of cocaine and heroin enough to reduce drug consumption in the United States by even a single user. In fact, despite considerable U.S. and Colombian efforts to date–including the controversial use of herbicides, which the plan will increase–coca cultivation in Colombia has significantly increased. If the paramount U.S. objective is reducing drug consumption, then clearly this is not the best way to spend $1.3 billion. Even if the objective is to reduce the financial base of the guerrillas and militias, we still might achieve more by shifting resources toward lowering demand, even though it may take years before the effects of falling consumption would seriously impact drug revenue.

The fact that U.S. assistance contributes to a counternarcotics plan prepared by the Colombian government should impress no one. Governments seeking foreign assistance always depict their enemies in terms that appeal to the prospective donor. Inviting Americans to join in nasty guerrilla fighting that has lasted for nearly forty years would get few takers, the Cold War having now been over for more than a decade. If going after drug traffickers is the way to win U.S. material support, then it is as an anti-drug campaign that Colombia's national plan will be pitched.

It is perhaps not surprising that President Pastrana has had trouble mobilizing Colombian support for a new plan couched in these terms, for Colombians tend to see their problems as a consequence of America's appetite for drugs. They worry little about cocaine refineries in some distant jungle of their own country, much less about crackheads in Los Angeles. To most Colombians, the drug war is America's war–Colombians are its victims. Further escalation, especially greater use of herbicides, wins Pastrana no applause.

Whatever the spin, U.S. assistance to Colombia is not solely about stopping drugs. It is intended also to help Colombia reverse an eroding security situation created by the growing challenge of Marxist guerrillas, whose recent military offensives have penetrated to the outskirts of Bogot itself. Any division between the two issues is artificial: Colombia's insurgency and its role in the drug trade are inextricably intertwined. So long as U.S. demand for cocaine and heroin remains high, Colombia's guerrillas and gangsters will have ample funds to field their armies, and so long as they field armies, the drug trade will continue.

Questions arise when the assistance package, as currently envisaged, is assessed in terms of its contribution to combating the insurgency. Colombia's armed forces have made significant improvements lately, restructuring themselves to free more troops for combat and gain greater mobility, but they still suffer from a number of serious problems. With more than 140,000 soldiers, they outnumber the guerrillas by eight to one, but fewer than a quarter of them are deployable. The army is garrison-bound, scattered in small outposts; a significant portion of it is tied down guarding oil fields, pipelines, power stations and other infrastructure. It lacks equipment. Mostly poor conscripts, its soldiers lack motivation. They also lack the support of a nation that, despite its precarious situation, has failed to mobilize for war. Colombian officers also complain that the armed forces are hampered by outmoded U.S. counterinsurgency doctrine, unreasonable human rights constraints and weak-kneed politicians.

Unless we were to replace the country's nationalistic officers with English-speaking toadies, dependent on U.S. assistance and approval, the Colombian armed forces will continue to fight their own wars and resist U.S. military interference. This will be no Vietnam. Traditional counterinsurgency strategy would support improved tactical intelligence, the creation of crack fighting units, and increased air mobility, all of which comprise the bulk of the assistance package. However, experience suggests that effective military units take time to develop. High-tech helicopters are hard to maintain and today may be countered with low-cost air defense weapons. In any case, military superiority by itself does not guarantee success. While Black Hawk helicopters will enable Colombian forces to strike deep into now inaccessible areas, there are guerrilla fronts operating within sight of Bogot's skyscrapers. One thus needs to be extremely cautious in applying traditional counterinsurgency doctrines to present-day Colombia . . .