CIAO DATE: 10/07
The National Interest
Agreeing to Agree (and Disagree)
Robert J. Art
Abstract
HISTORICALLY, THE rise of one great power at the expense of the dominant one has nearly always led to conflict between the two and, more often than not, eventually to a war between them that drags in other great powers. Is this violent history of rising and dominant great powers the future for U.S.-China relations?
Clearly, there will be political and economic conflicts and friction between the United States and People’s Republic of China as the PRC’s economic and military power in east Asia and its global economic and political reach continue to expand. There will also be some arms racing between China and the United States as each jockeys for an advantage over the other and as each is driven by its military necessities of intimidating and defending Taiwan, respectively. Historically, dominant powers have not readily given up their top position to rising challengers, and rising challengers have always demanded the fruits that they believe their growing power entitles them to. There is no reason to expect that things will be different in this regard with China and the United States; consequently, they will not be able to avoid a certain level of tension over the next several decades as China’s influence continues to grow and as the United States seeks to deal with it. So, even if China’s rise remains peaceful, Sino-American relations will not be harmonious.
Nonetheless, there are some significant shared interests between the United States and China (noted below), and hence some bases for cooperation in both the medium and longer term. Will the peace-inducing aspects of the U.S.-China relationship overshadow the conflict-producing ones? No one can say for certain. However, if we believe that there are distinct elements in the Sino-American relationship that differ from past rising-versus-dominant-power competitions, then the dismal history of these past competitions need not be the future for this one.