CIAO DATE: 09/07
The National Interest
The Regime Change We Need
Lawrence Groo and Parag Khanna
Abstract
It may be lonely at the top, but many presidents around the world wouldn’t have it any other way. Western observers are accustomed to the autocratic tendencies of Arab strongmen and African dictators, but elsewhere a new breed of executive is emerging, sometimes combining bravado with popularity, in other cases professing democracy while seeking exemptions from it, and even pioneering a model of governance which defies Western hopes of smooth democratic transitions.
Over the last several years, the United States has increasingly focused on promoting democracy in the former Soviet Union, the Middle East and elsewhere, helping to sponsor “revolutions” in Ukraine, Serbia, Georgia and Kyrgyzstan while pressuring Arab regimes across the board to conduct free and fair presidential and parliamentary elections, and to accept the results. Yet the reality is that in many cases where peaceful regime change has been achieved—such as in several Eastern European countries—one set of self-serving leaders has been replaced with another. And where long-time incumbent executives have pledged to reform or stand aside, such as in various Middle Eastern countries, many have reversed course or further entrenched themselves in the trappings of power.
In Eastern Europe, Ukrainian President Viktor Yuschenko’s reneging on his promise to transition the country toward a parliamentary, rather than presidential, system, and his maintenance of a powerful shadow cabinet, convinced many voters that the “Orange Revolution” of 2004 was more a staged handover than a resolute demonstration of people power. Furthermore, he failed to convince many mainstream citizens, particularly in the country’s east, to support a permanent tilt towards Western institutions such as NATO. Not surprisingly, his party fared poorly in the March 2006 elections and was replaced by the Russian-backed party of Viktor Yanukovich. The lesson is that Western powers must be careful whom they back in so-called revolutions, for they risk giving a carte blanche to self-serving executives who are far from champions of democracy.