CIAO DATE: 09/07
The National Interest
The Fourth Age
Charles Kupchan
Abstract
The Atlantic order is in the midst of a fundamental transition. The transatlantic discord that has emerged since the late 1990s marks a historical breakpoint, not a temporary aberration. The foundational principles of the Atlantic security order that emerged after World War II have been compromised. American and European interests have diverged, institutionalized cooperation can no longer be taken for granted, and a shared Western identity has attenuated.1
We are at the dawn of a new era in the Atlantic relationship. Rather than trying to recreate the past, the Atlantic democracies should move forward by acknowledging that the tight-knit alliance of the Cold-War years is gone for good. Instead, they should accept that the character of the Atlantic order is undergoing a profound transformation, seek to understand the attributes of the emerging order, and figure out how to make the most of its cooperative potential.
Since America's founding, there have been three distinct periods of the transatlantic relationship: 1776–1905 (the era of balance of power), 1905–1941 (the era of balance of threat), and 1941–2001 (the era of cooperative security). The accompanying table identifies the key attributes of each of these three periods.