|
|
|
|
Map of Middle East |
Middle East Review of International Affairs
China's WMD Foot in the Greater Middle East's Door
by Richard L. Russell
*
Abstract
China has an expanding body of strategic interests in the greater Middle East region. This is manifested in its security relationships with Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Pakistan, which entail WMD and ballistic missile cooperation. Saudi Arabia,Iran, and Pakistan are pivotal states in the region. They are increasingly likely to view China in coming years as an alternate source of security and as a counterbalance to American power. ÊOver the past decade, Chinese diplomacy has produced an impressive array of bilateral and multilateral arrangements for curbing WMD and ballistic missile proliferation. But China's strategic imperatives for access and influence in the greater Middle East will likely push Beijing to cut corners in the spirit, if not the word, of these international arrangements. The Chinese appear bent on playing a "cat and mouse game" with the United States in the proliferation field. They work against American counter-proliferation policy until caught, then deny charges, only to subsequently, and much belatedly, recant to say that it will not happen again. This game gets progressively harder for the United States to play. With each evolution of this cycle, the United States looses its edge in intelligence, and the Chinese adapt as the strengths and weaknesses of American intelligence are revealed. China's future corner-cutting will be doubly challenging to track, because Beijing has moved from supplying whole weapon systems, such as ballistic missiles, toward the provision of expertise and advice that are difficult for outsiders to monitor. The challenge will be for American intelligence, diplomacy, and policy to monitor and rapidly adjust to China's ever-changing efforts to aid and abet WMD-related programs in the greater Middle East, especially in Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Pakistan.
Full Text (PDF, 17 pages, 92.9 KB)
Note *: Richard L. Russell is a Professor of National Security Affairs at the National Defense University's Near East-South Asia Center for Strategic Studies. He also is a Research Associate at the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy and an Adjunct Associate Professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University. Russell is the author of Strategic Contest: Weapons Proliferation and War in the Greater Middle East (Routledge, 2005).