Middle East Review of International Affairs

Volume 9, Number 3, September 2005

 

The future of Iraq: democracy, civil war, or chaos?
by Michael Rubin ^*

 

Abstract

Pessimism regarding Iraq's future is unwarranted. Iraq faces many challenges, but success is still within reach. After 35 years of dictatorship, Iraqis have embraced a political process emphasizing compromise and coalition. They have successfully held elections and drawn up a constitution. Political brinkmanship is not necessarily a precursor to civil war. That said, Iraqi democracy faces many challenges. First and foremost is the insurgency. Premature reconciliation and concessions offered in the face of violence, however, will backfire. Neighboring states also may undermine Iraq's security, necessitating a long-term U.S. military presence.

This article was originally written for a project and conference on "After the Iraq War: Strategic and Political Changes in Europe and the Middle East," co-sponsored by the GLORIA Center and The Military Centre for Strategic Studies (CeMiSS) of Italy.

Full Text (PDF, 14 pages, 72.6 KB)

Note *: Michael Rubin, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, is editor of the Middle East Quarterly.