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Middle East Review of International Affairs
The Iraqi Opposition's Evolution: From Conflict to Unity?
by Robert G. Rabil
*
Abstract
This article uses Iraqi documents to survey the relationship between the Iraqi opposition and the regime of Saddam Hussein. Both government and opposition have gone through different phases varying on such issues as cooperation, conflict, and degrees of repression. A key question is whether the opposition has reached a higher level of unity and both the determination and ability, with U.S. help, to develop a new democratic regime in the country.
This article, based largely on official Iraqi documents, reviews the relationship between the Iraqi opposition and the regime of Saddam Hussein. It also tries to place the opposition's evolution and actions in the context of regional and international factors. Generally speaking, the opposition went through four phases since the current government took power in 1968.
During the first phase, from 1968 to 1980, opposition to the regime was mainly local. Although Iran supported a Kurdish rebellion, the regime was able to suppress the opposition and solidify its own rule. The Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988) heralded a new phase marking the opposition's shift from a local to a regional phenomenon. The regional countries, particularly Iran and Syria, tried to control the opposition parties' agenda by developing patron-client relationships given their own interest in undermining Saddam Hussein's power. The second Gulf war (1990-1991) and the March 1991 uprisings by Kurds and Shi's after the regime's defeat in Kuwait ushered in a new phase. During the next decade, the opposition was transformed to an international phenomenon, letting the groups free themselves from the leverage of regional states. The Iraqi National Congress was born and Kurdish autonomy was secured in the north under U.S. and UN sponsorship.
At the same time, the opposition camp gradually began to solve the historical problem of its fragmentation due to rivalries and ideological differences. This trend was accentuated following the September 11 terrorist attacks on the United States. The Bush administration made "regime change" in Iraq a high-priority objective. Suddenly, the opposition became the focus of the U.S. efforts. The future of the opposition, and Iraq itself, will largely depend on whether the opposition will play a significant role in removing Saddam and be able to institute a democratic and stable government if he falls.
Full PDF Document, 17 pages, 87 kbs
Endnotes
Note *: Dr. Rabil served with Red Cross in Lebanon, taught at Suffolk University and currently is the project manager of Iraq Research and Documentation Project at the Iraq Foundation, Washington, DC. He is the author of the forthcoming book Embattled Neighbors: Lebanon, Syria, Israel and the Elusive Peace by Lynne Rienner Publishers. The author extends his thanks to IRDP research team.Back