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Middle East Review of International Affairs

Volume 6, No. 2 - June 2002

 

Iranian Nuclear Weapons Policy: Past, Present, and Possible Future
by Chris Quillen *

 

Introduction

Iran has pursued nuclear weapons for over three decades. Throughout some of the most tumultuous times in its history the basic reasons for this quest have remained unchanged. Iran seeks nuclear weapons to defeat regional adversaries, to deter global power intervention, and to cement its leadership position within the Middle East. No matter who rules in Tehran these rationales are unlikely to change.

Iran will most likely be the world's next nuclear nation.(1) As such, it is worthwhile to understand Tehran's reasons for seeking nuclear weapons as an indication of how they might be used in the future. This analysis is divided into three eras. In each phase the reasons for pursuing nuclear weapons are explored in relation to the changing circumstances both inside and outside Iran.

This paper does not provide a technical overview of the Iranian nuclear program (or the development of delivery systems for them) except where such details serve to illuminate various aspects of Iran's nuclear policy. Neither does it seek to "prove" that Iran is attempting or has attempted to acquire nuclear weapons. It is assumed throughout that the civilian nuclear power program in Iran has always had a covert military application-despite Tehran's treaty obligations and public protestations to the contrary. Finally, no moral or political considerations are offered about whether Iran can or should develop nuclear weapons. Only the reasons why Iran seeks such weapons are analyzed.

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Endnotes

Note *: Chris Quillen is a counterterrorism analyst at Oak Ridge Associated Universities and a former U.S. Army intelligence analyst. He has earned a master's degree in national security studies from Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service. He has previously written for Parameters, Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, and Terrorism and Political Violence. cwquill@aol.com, quillenc@orau.gov Back