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Middle East Review of International Affairs
The Earthquake, Europe, and Prospects for Political Change in Turkey
by Paul Kubicek
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Editor's Summary
Two events in 1999--the Marmara earthquake and the European Union's (EU) conditional acceptance of Turkey’s candidacy for membership--offered hope for liberalization and democratization in Turkey. In the first case, the earthquake was viewed as a factor mobilizing civil society as a force "from below" that could engender political reform. In the second, the EU became a factor providing outside pressure for change. This article suggests that the energy generated from the earthquake's aftermath has largely dissipated and that there is strong opposition from powerful forces in Turkey to meeting key EU recommendations. While there has been a change in rhetoric, making a change in policy is proving very difficult.
Introduction
The wave of democratization that swept over much of the world in the 1990s appeared to have bypassed Turkey. Instead of experiencing a democratic breakthrough, the Turkish political system remained plagued by several problems compromising its democracy, issues further illustrated by the March 2001 financial crisis and its aftermath. These included a Kurdish insurgency; human rights violations; prohibitions on some political parties; corruption; thinly veiled interventions by the military into the political arena; and low public confidence in key democratic institutions. The 1999 parliamentary elections produced a coalition government that seemed likely to be torn between formerly implacable enemies on the nationalist right and the social-democratic left.
Turkey is certainly an electoral democracy but lacks many features of a liberal democracy. One Turkish political scientist dubbed Turkey a "delegative democracy," marked by personalist rule, lack of accountability, and a penchant for authoritarian behavior. However the system is labeled, it seems well entrenched, and despite talk of reform throughout the decade, politics-as-usual remained the order of the day.
Two events in the second half of 1999 brought about renewed hope for political liberalization. The first was the Marmara earthquake in August that, in addition to causing human and material losses, exposed fissures in the edifice of the Turkish state. The hope among many was that these cracks would be filled by a resurgent civil society that could push for change "from below." The second event was the decision by the European Union (EU) at its December summit in Helsinki to accept Turkey’s candidacy for membership. The expectation was that the EU would help push for change, prompting Turkey to undertake measures to eliminate its democratic deficit in exchange for admission to full membership. Arguably, one can already see results of the EU’s lobbying. A new president, one with solid reform credentials, has been elected, and his push for a more liberal and open government has brought him into open conflict with the current government, triggering the financial meltdown earlier this year.
A year later, one can better assess how these two events and the ostensible agents of change--civil society and the EU--are re-shaping Turkish politics. In other contexts, both actors have been deemed instrumental in the processes of democratization. Past results elsewhere, however, do not guarantee success in Turkey today. While the debate in Turkey has undoubtedly been transformed by these events, one wonders if this will lead to broad changes in the polity itself. This article will therefore examine the ability of Turkish civil society and the EU to compel Turkish elites to open up the political system and further processes of democratic consolidation.
Full PDF Document, 14 pages, 76kB
Endnotes:
Note *: Paul Kubicek is an assistant professor of political science at Oakland University, Rochester Michigan, USA. He has previously taught at Koc and Bogazici Universities in Istanbul. He thanks Deniz Senol and Uyan Pinar for research assistance and the University of Wyoming and Bogazici University for providing financial and logistical support. Back