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International Relations of the Asia-Pacific
Determinants of civil war in post-colonial Asia, 1950–1992: the role of trade openness and economic development
by Susumu Suzuki and Volker Krause
Abstract
Although Asia has experienced civil war about as often as Sub-Saharan Africa during the post-World War II era, there have been few systematic investigations into the determinants of civil war in Asia. This article examines the effects of trade openness and economic development on the onset of civil war in post-colonial Asia, controlling for political, demographic, and geographic factors. Analyzing data on post-colonial Asian states between 1950 and 1992, we find that the onset of civil war is less likely with increased trade openness. However, when taking into account interaction between trade openness and economic development, we discover that increased trade openness reduces the likelihood of civil war onset significantly only in the context of high economic development. This result is robust with different model specifications.