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International Relations of the Asia-Pacific
Finding peace in a world of hegemony and terrorism
by John R. Oneal and Bruce Russett
Abstract
Although acknowledging the importance of power, Immanuel Kant suggested that republican constitutions, economic interdependence, and international law and organizations can form the basis for a dramatically more peaceful world. Statistical analyses of the behavior of pairs of states, 1885-1992, confirm this liberal vision. Using methods common to medical epidemiology, we find that the Kantian elements substantially reduce the likelihood that states will become involved in a fatal militarized dispute. Indeed, two democracies linked by extensive trade and a dense network of international organizations are 95% less likely to fight than states that do not share these characteristics. Our analyses have important implications for the United States and China, two countries destined to shape the twenty-first century. Engaging China in trade and integrating it into the major international organizations over the last three decades has, with some liberalization of its government, substantially reduced the risk of military conflict.