CIAO DATE: 5/00
Volume XXXIIV No. 4 (October-December 1999)
The article takes the stance that NATOs option of first use of nuclear weapons is out of date and should be reconsidered. The arguments put forward are that a first-use policy presupposes the possibility of nuclear weapons actually being deployed, while a no-first-use policy would shift the nuclear debate in NATO from an effort by a few states to block nuclear use to a requirement for all NATO members to authorise it. Furthermore, the first use option has a negative effect on the international non-proliferation regime, suggesting that nuclear weapons are militarily useful, inflating the value and prestige attributed to them, and undermining attempts to persuade the non-nuclear weapon states to refrain from developing their own arsenals. This is precisely the opposite message from the one NATO should be conveying if it wants to avoid a growing threat of nuclear proliferation and enhance the security of the continent.
Despite the revival of the prestige of the United Nations as an unintended consequence of the Kosovo crisis, the United States attitude towards the international organisation continues to be ambivalent at best. Will the US become an ever more alienated superpower that shuns the UN and other organisations that press it into compromises? Will other nations agree they must meet Washingtons demands for heightened control and diminished commitment as the distasteful but necessary price to keep the superpower from opting out? Can the US be persuaded to see international law and institutions, and not just national military strength, as the underpinnings of a peaceful and secure world? Resolution of these questions will be crucial to the shape of international order in the next century.
European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) will test US-European relations across a variety of issue areas: monetary policy, financial diplomacy and trade relations. In essence, the new international financial order will reduce the asymmetrical advantages that the US has enjoyed stemming from the dollars uniquely dominant role. Yet, it is argued that EMU does not have an anti-American objective. While the US is urged to welcome Europe as an equal partner, it is suggested that Europe should appoint a Mr. Euroland, who can speak authoritatively for the euro-zone, to manage the external repercussions of the single currency more effectively.
The article explores the dynamics of the relationships among the old and new political actors in Kosovo itself and the influences upon them of the other factors in the Albanian equation: the government (and opposition) in Tirana, the Albanians in Macedonia, and the Albanian diaspora. It concludes that the KLA-Rugova balance is equalling out again with Rugova gradually gaining ground as the UCK is blamed for much of the continuing post-conflict violence. Nevertheless, once transformed into a political force, the UCK will become an important factor of power in Kosovo.
Regional Cooperation in Southeastern Europe
Regional cooperation in sutheastern Europe is desirable for economic, political and security reasons, but it can never be a substitute for integration into the wider European system. Nevertheless, the two processes are not incompatible and must be pursued in parallel. A number of measures are mentioned which the EU could implement to promote reconstruction and development in the region.
Organised crime in southeastern Europe, with its links to major transnational organised criminal constellations, destabilises the society, the political system, the administration and the economies of countries in the region. In addition, it makes them less reliable potential partners for NATO and the EU. A number of initiatives have been undertaken, but what is urgently required is increased coordination and joint action both among Balkan countries and with countries of the European Union.
Advancing the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership
The article argues that it is time to return to the innovatory roots of the Barcelona process to built a region of peace and stability on the basis of stronger economic, trade, social and human relations. Only then, and as an extension of the EUs growing competences in the field, should more traditional aspects of security cooperation be brought under the EMP umbrella.
The article explores the extent to which the EMPs future Charter for Peace and Stability will be able to prescribe and promote Euro-Med cooperation in peace support, responses to humanitarian emergencies and election monitoring. Joint actions in training and education are stressed, as well as people-to-people and civil-military contacts, in view of creating the necessary civilian expertise in domestic and Mediterranean security. Since domestic problems have regional security consequences, much emphasis is also put on questions related to good governance and security sector reform.